j/k18z GFS Just Coming Out Now...
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Huckster
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This looks like the most worthless run yet. Those seem like some very erratic movements, but my eyesight seriously isn't good at seeing those small details; it looks like it was trying to make the storm wobble back and forth, even to the south a couple of tmes. If the storm actually moves like that, it might satisfy all the Florida and Louisiana people I disagree with and everyone in between j/k
j/k
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ALhurricane wrote:I wouldn't worry too much about the 18z model runs.
It will be tonight's 00z runs that will hold high interest. Those runs will have the new G-IV upper air data in them.
I agree.. that is the run i have been anticipating since the recon flights were ordered a couple days ago.
That is whay i am laying all my plans on.
-Eric
btw. Follow the NHC for all OFFICIAL tracks. Don't base your judgements on these models.
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x-y-no
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ericinmia wrote:ALhurricane wrote:I wouldn't worry too much about the 18z model runs.
It will be tonight's 00z runs that will hold high interest. Those runs will have the new G-IV upper air data in them.
I agree.. that is the run i have been anticipating since the recon flights were ordered a couple days ago.
That is whay i am laying all my plans on.
-Eric
btw. Follow the NHC for all OFFICIAL tracks. Don't base your judgements on these models.
Yes. Think I'm going to head out and relax for a bit, come back for tonight's "Talkin Tropics" show and the 0Z run.
Jan
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x-y-no wrote:
Yes. Think I'm going to head out and relax for a bit, come back for tonight's "Talkin Tropics" show and the 0Z run.
Jan
The first frames will be available about 11:30 tonight...
The Recon data from the dropsondes into the ridge, trough, and dennis will be included in it from today. That should make it a very precise model on the next 24 hours.
-Eric
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One thing that could give this model a little bit more value than previous 06Z/18Z runs is that it upper air stations as far north as Charleston and as west as Lake Charles took an additional upper air observation today (at 18Z). That wasn't the case for the 06Z run this morning (I think only Key West took a 06Z sounding).
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x-y-no
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ericinmia wrote:x-y-no wrote:
Yes. Think I'm going to head out and relax for a bit, come back for tonight's "Talkin Tropics" show and the 0Z run.
Jan
The first frames will be available about 11:30 tonight...
The Recon data from the dropsondes into the ridge, trough, and dennis will be included in it from today. That should make it a very precise model on the next 24 hours.
-Eric
Yeah, I know ... I'm an old degenerate GFS watcher.
See 'ya later tonight.
Jan
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AL Chili Pepper
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Geesh, here we go again. I was driving home thinking we were clear. Local met on the radio saying well east of Pensacola...maybe even to PCB. Now....the GFS is back at it again.
Timing seems to be the key here. Will the ridge build back in time to steer it back WNW.....or will it not have time.
Props to dsutherland. He's the first met I saw speak of the WNW possibility as it neared the coast. This is not to say that it will actually happen though. Everyone from the Big Bend to NO needs to prepare.
Timing seems to be the key here. Will the ridge build back in time to steer it back WNW.....or will it not have time.
Props to dsutherland. He's the first met I saw speak of the WNW possibility as it neared the coast. This is not to say that it will actually happen though. Everyone from the Big Bend to NO needs to prepare.
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Anonymous
Why is it when a new model run comes out, THAT MODEL RUN WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT?
The only model runs that really mean anything, is when the storm is within 36hrs. of landfall. Every model run prior to that time, is purely something to speculate about, simply because of the constant changes in the dynamics of the atmosphere.
While it's interesting to see and talk about all of the model runs that come out on a regular basis, none of them should get any one nervous.
THE STORM IS STILL 3-4 DAYS AWAY FROM A LANDFALL!
Have fun getting nervous for nothing. One minute the folks in Texas, Louisiana are nervous, then it's the people in Mississippi, then it's Alabama, Florida...etc. Then it's back to somewhere else. It's ridiculous. Sit back and watch, then get nervous when you NEED to.
The only model runs that really mean anything, is when the storm is within 36hrs. of landfall. Every model run prior to that time, is purely something to speculate about, simply because of the constant changes in the dynamics of the atmosphere.
While it's interesting to see and talk about all of the model runs that come out on a regular basis, none of them should get any one nervous.
THE STORM IS STILL 3-4 DAYS AWAY FROM A LANDFALL!
Have fun getting nervous for nothing. One minute the folks in Texas, Louisiana are nervous, then it's the people in Mississippi, then it's Alabama, Florida...etc. Then it's back to somewhere else. It's ridiculous. Sit back and watch, then get nervous when you NEED to.
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jlauderdal
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Big EZ wrote:Why is it when a new model run comes out, THAT MODEL RUN WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT?
The only model runs that really mean anything, is when the storm is within 36hrs. of landfall. Every model run prior to that time, is purely something to speculate about, simply because of the constant changes in the dynamics of the atmosphere.
While it's interesting to see and talk about all of the model runs that come out on a regular basis, none of them should get any one nervous.
THE STORM IS STILL 3-4 DAYS AWAY FROM A LANDFALL!
Have fun getting nervous for nothing. One minute the folks in Texas, Louisiana are nervous, then it's the people in Mississippi, then it's Alabama, Florida...etc. Then it's back to somewhere else. It's ridiculous. Sit back and watch, then get nervous when you NEED to.
its what have you done for me lately. newest model run takes the most recent data and tghus is generally the most important unless there is corrupt data or bad initialization.
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Anonymous
Although this shows a landfall thats more in line of favoring my view (sorry, I couldn't resist), I'm not even biting yet. Its 18z (its infamous for being bad) and again its only one run.
00z models will be critical tonight. NAM is in the game now because its in the domain of good forecasting. My thinking could change drastically tonight...
00z models will be critical tonight. NAM is in the game now because its in the domain of good forecasting. My thinking could change drastically tonight...
Last edited by jkt21787 on Thu Jul 07, 2005 6:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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