Upper level ridge trying to form off east coast of FLA????

#1 Postby **LSU2001** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 5:53 pm

If so what are the implications for Dennis's Track and Strength.
TIM

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

#2 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 5:54 pm

That's a ridge actually - the motion is clockwise. It appears to me to be building back into the Gulf...and if it connects with the northern Plains ridge at all, this storm will trend back to the WNW once into the Gulf.

#3 Postby **LSU2001** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 5:55 pm

Of course your right I didn't stop to think about the circulation clockwise vs. counter. Oh well thats why I ask questions.
TIm

#4 Postby **Steve** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 5:56 pm

Hey Purdue,

Just wanted to say hey. I think you're one of the top posters on the site and always have but I ain't seen you around much. I trust you're enjoying all that Madison has to offer

.

Steve

#5 Postby **ericinmia** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 5:57 pm

Hmm this is interesting...
I need to think more... but here... latest change.

goodlife · #6 Postby **goodlife** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 5:58 pm

PurdueWx80 wrote:That's a ridge actually - the motion is clockwise. It appears to me to be building back into the Gulf...and if it connects with the northern Plains ridge at all, this storm will trend back to the WNW once into the Gulf.

Is it building or eroding/weakening? I have heard different people say both

zoeyann · #7 Postby **zoeyann** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 5:59 pm

Eric I do not know how to read this map. Can you please explain?

#8 Postby **loon** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 6:00 pm

ericinmia....

this isn't good....

I'm not sure if you are following ONLY present and past images like I have decided to do this year, but your posts are right on usually with what I am looking at. things are changing..you think it will continue?

#9 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 6:00 pm

Hey Steve - I posted a ton last season because I was in school and was trying to procrastinate as much as possible. I did a heck of a job, too! :lol:

Now that I'm a workin' man, I don't have as much time - but when I get some free moments at work (like now) I'll do what I can.

goodlife · #10 Postby **goodlife** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 6:01 pm

I think he's going to say that the ridge appears to BUILDING back to the west.....
but then again maybe not...I don't know how to read em either...lol

#11 Postby **ericinmia** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 6:01 pm

zoeyann wrote:Eric I do not know how to read this map. Can you please explain?

It appears the ridge axis and orientation has changed.
It is too early to tell whether this will cause the storm to head more northerly or westerly. With a little more time, and some Smarter people's opinions... we should know.
-Eric

Edit:
Also it could fuse with the high pressure over texas/mexico causing the storm to head more west... or if the orientation stays, and continues to move off shore, it could propel the storm more northerly much quicker.

FOLLOW NHC THOUGH, this is speculation.

#12 Postby **loon** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 6:03 pm

Over the last few 3 hr readings it looked like it was moving back east, now the latest looks to be moving back west....

#13 Postby **LSU2001** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 6:04 pm

Should I edit the post to say Ridge off east fla????

#14 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 6:05 pm

lsu2001 wrote:Should I edit the post to say Ridge off east fla????

Could say "upper level anticyclone", "upper level ridge" or "upper level high"

zoeyann · #15 Postby **zoeyann** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 6:10 pm

Thanks

#16 Postby **ericinmia** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 6:12 pm

I'm not going to post the necissary 20 pictures to show this, but the ridge has changed orientation from East-West to North-South.

This can lead to the storm going more northly; However, there seems to be some bridging occuring between the mexican high and the bermuda, but the bermuda is still erroding so this bridging is not going to cause a westerly motion yet. Eventually that will be what probably draws the system further west. Not past Pensecola though.
-Eric

This is not an official NHC forecast, go here for those... Http://www.nhc.noaa.gov

EDIT:
Thanks to Jlauderdale for IM'ing me this...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

This would be the reason for the more northward trend in the last few frames.

#17 Postby **jasons2k** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 6:54 pm

This could have huge implications in the track. Maybe the UKMET is onto something here.

#18 Postby **LSU2001** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 6:55 pm

Come on guys need more input
TIm

#19 Postby **dhweather** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 6:57 pm

PurdueWx80 wrote:That's a ridge actually - the motion is clockwise. It appears to me to be building back into the Gulf...and if it connects with the northern Plains ridge at all, this storm will trend back to the WNW once into the Gulf.

And that is what the UKMET is banking on.

#20 Postby **jasons2k** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 6:59 pm

dhweather wrote:
PurdueWx80 wrote:That's a ridge actually - the motion is clockwise. It appears to me to be building back into the Gulf...and if it connects with the northern Plains ridge at all, this storm will trend back to the WNW once into the Gulf.

And that is what the UKMET is banking on.

Agreed.

Upper level ridge trying to form off east coast of FLA????

Upper level ridge trying to form off east coast of FLA????

Ridge

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