Louisiana out of the woods?

[goodlife]

It seems Bob Breck now thinks so....
Can we all breathe a big sigh of relief yet?

[Lindaloo]

No one along the Gulf Coast can breathe a sigh of relief until Dennis makes landfall.

[Mattie]

Don't breathe a sigh of relief yet - let's see what happens when it gets in the gulf. The sporadic tracks of historical hurricanes has proven that you only breathe about 48-24 hrs out, and then it can still change. Just look what happened to Lili and if memory serves me correctly - Ivan's path was "iffy" up until the last minute.

Just be prepared in any event, IMO

[rsdoug1981]

It seems Bob Breck now thinks so....
Can we all breathe a big sigh of relief yet?

Do you remember watching Bob Breck for Hurricane Lili in 2002? He wrote it off and then went ballistic at about 10PM the night before she hit LA. Ever since then, I haven't quite trusted Bob despite his decades of experience. To answer, your question, LA is not necessarily out of the woods. It does look better for us today than yesterday. One degree shift in Dennis' track now can mean a bigger shift in track along the coast.

[zoeyann]

Yeah yesterday the vipir model had it going to the mouth of the river and now its going to Panama City. He seems pretty certain about todays forecast even saying it may go east of there. We'll see in time, but I'm preped just in case.

[PTPatrick]

I remember how uncertain Ivan's path was...24 hours before it hit it was supposed to hit around Biloxi/Ocean Springs...of course it hit 100 miles east of there


George was supposed to hit NOLA less than 24 hours out...but he hit 100 miles east of there as well.

[Eyes2theSkies]

just ask the people in punta gorda about being out of the woods

[Mac]

Hi Leigh! Nice to see you again.

[goodlife]

I remember how uncertain Ivan's path was...24 hours before it hit it was supposed to hit around Biloxi/Ocean Springs...of course it hit 100 miles east of there

yeah but how much of the uncertainty was because we were all looking with our eyes and not listening with our ears? The NHC kept saying it wasn't coming to NO and all of us watching kept saying....yeah well it sure looks like it is!
lol
I think the NHC ends up being right more than they end up being wrong..

[Steve]

You can rest easier but I'd still keep an eye on things. The UKMET is adamant about a west of here hit (outlier) and the European 12z brings it in near MS/AL. I generally like both of those models but am not sure either has a handle on Dennis. Assuming we don't get a Peninsular hit, I'd expect the GFS suite and tropicals to trend a bit more west tomorrow with the UKMet/ECMWF alliance moving a bit east to settle somewhere east of here (maybe Destin-Ft. Walton to Biloxi). That still could mean some strong winds and power outages (ala Opal, Georges) or it could mean nothing at all. We'll just have to see.

Steve

[FritzPaul]

I'm tending to agree with the NHC about a P'cola hit. The only thing that concerns me is what Dave Bernard said @ 1200pm.

He showed WV imagery for the GOM which showed some strong easterly flow around the FL straights. This IMO can preclude any northerly movement until these upper level winds abate.

BTW: It's good to get back to Storm 2k. My power was out from 11:30p Tues. til 5:00p today.

[Mattie]

Just as a reminder - take a look at the nhc watches and warnings from Ivan - they covered the entire coastal area in some form or fashion for sometime before Ivan arrived near Mobile Bay . . .

Scroll down about midway to get the watches/warning table . . .



http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2004ivan.shtml?#TABLE7

[Steve]

>>I'm tending to agree with the NHC about a P'cola hit. The only thing that concerns me is what Dave Bernard said @ 1200pm

Yeah. You gotta go with the NHC unless you can see something
different. I'm really hoping that Pensacola and Gulf Shores
get spared this time because of all the mess still left over from
Ivan. As many here have reported, people still don't have roofs,
others are living in trailer camps and such, and it would just be
a terrible place to have a hit so soon after the last big one. P'cola
is also about my favorite place in South (outside of New Orleans)
so I really don't want them to have to deal with a difficult situation.

Just the same, last NHC track looked more like Holley/Navarre.

Steve

[Duffy]

*no one* should consider themselves "out of the woods" just yet.....anything can still happen...just look at what happened with Charley last year, making that last minute jog to the Right and crashing into Southwestern Florida
Just keep apprissed of the latest conditions and make the neccassarry preperations if the need arises

[arlwx]

I think the TX folk might be able to relax a bit now that Dennis is steering NW or a bit north of that...

But no one east of there should cancel their hotel reservations yet.

[Innotech]

I live an hour east of Texas border. Im not worried at all.

[Stormcenter]

[quote="Steve"]You can rest easier but I'd still keep an eye on things. The UKMET is adamant about a west of here hit (outlier) and the European 12z brings it in near MS/AL. I generally like both of those models but am not sure either has a handle on Dennis. Assuming we don't get a Peninsular hit, I'd expect the GFS suite and tropicals to trend a bit more west tomorrow with the UKMet/ECMWF alliance moving a bit east to settle somewhere east of here (maybe Destin-Ft. Walton to Biloxi). That still could mean some strong winds and power outages (ala Opal, Georges) or it could mean nothing at all. We'll just have to see.


This is FAR from over in my opinion. I just have an uneasy feeling for the MS/AL area and if gets that close than N.O. should still be concerned. I think many of you fail to realize that Dennis is not even in the GOM yet. Just my 2 cents.

[corpusbreeze]

New Orleans can go back and party now. Or did they ever stop?

[Stormcenter]

New Orleans can go back and party now. Or did they ever stop?

I think they are still recovering from Hurricane Cindy oops I meant Tropical Storm Cindy.

[Ripopgodazippa]

It seems Bob Breck now thinks so....
Can we all breathe a big sigh of relief yet?

Don't bet on it...