I was right...........

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Dean4Storms
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I was right...........

#1 Postby Dean4Storms » Thu Jul 07, 2005 4:57 pm

The models were over emphasizing the sub. ridge as I thought and posted yesterday, not only that but Dennis was making a turn to the NW.

Who was it from Memphis that said I would have to eat something? :wink:
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Josephine96

#2 Postby Josephine96 » Thu Jul 07, 2005 4:59 pm

LOL.. I also noticed from the 5pm track, that the track seems to be shifting east.. Even if it was just a slight shift.. it's a bit significant
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#3 Postby Brent » Thu Jul 07, 2005 5:00 pm

I think the NHC track is very close to where it's going to come in... I don't see it going farther east.

Defintely not SE LA IMO.
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LilNoles2005
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Stickin' to..

#4 Postby LilNoles2005 » Thu Jul 07, 2005 5:04 pm

I'm stickin' to P'Cola/Mobile.
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#5 Postby Dean4Storms » Thu Jul 07, 2005 5:04 pm

Josephine96 wrote:LOL.. I also noticed from the 5pm track, that the track seems to be shifting east.. Even if it was just a slight shift.. it's a bit significant



They have it coming right over Destin, my house and I keep telling myself how large the errors of the track are this far out. :eek:
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gkrangers

#6 Postby gkrangers » Thu Jul 07, 2005 5:06 pm

Ever think that maybe they are underemphasizing the ridge now?
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#7 Postby Stormcenter » Thu Jul 07, 2005 5:07 pm

I guess you guys already have forgotten what all of the storms did to Florida last year? I would not want this storm in my neck of the woods for NOTHING. :eek:
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#8 Postby gatorcane » Thu Jul 07, 2005 5:07 pm

ver think that maybe they are underemphasizing the ridge now?


absolutely, I wouldn't be surprised if the middle Keys get a direct hit. [/quote]
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#9 Postby gkrangers » Thu Jul 07, 2005 5:09 pm

boca_chris wrote:
ver think that maybe they are underemphasizing the ridge now?


absolutely, I wouldn't be surprised if the middle Keys get a direct hit.
[/quote]Well...if the models underemphasize the ridge, that means they'll be too far east. You missed my point I think.
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#10 Postby x-y-no » Thu Jul 07, 2005 5:10 pm

Brent wrote:I think the NHC track is very close to where it's going to come in... I don't see it going farther east.

Defintely not SE LA IMO.


Yeah, I'm thinking the current NHC track is quite likely. Maybe it should be a tad further right in the long range, but pretty reasonable looking up to 27N or so.

Jan
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#11 Postby Dean4Storms » Thu Jul 07, 2005 5:30 pm

gkrangers wrote:Ever think that maybe they are underemphasizing the ridge now?



Not after the sampling by the IV last night, but I hope they underemphasize it some more and send this thing to my east. Would much prefer to be on the western side than the eastern or be the bullseye.

We certainly don't want it around here!
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#12 Postby loon » Thu Jul 07, 2005 5:32 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:
gkrangers wrote:Ever think that maybe they are underemphasizing the ridge now?



Not after the sampling by the IV last night, but I hope they underemphasize it some more and send this thing to my east. Would much prefer to be on the western side than the eastern or be the bullseye.

We certainly don't want it around here!


We'll know for sure tonight after the GSIV is put in the models for the 00Z run
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tropicsgal05
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#13 Postby tropicsgal05 » Thu Jul 07, 2005 5:38 pm

I live in Ft. Walton Beach and i'm very nervous right now. Everyone in the path of this storm, stay safe.
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Re: I was right...........

#14 Postby jkt21787 » Thu Jul 07, 2005 6:16 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:The models were over emphasizing the sub. ridge as I thought and posted yesterday, not only that but Dennis was making a turn to the NW.

Who was it from Memphis that said I would have to eat something? :wink:

I know you mention a Memphis guy but I did not say you would have to eat anything, maybe you mean ALHurricane. I did disagree I believe though with you.
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loon
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#15 Postby loon » Thu Jul 07, 2005 6:22 pm

I believe the guy that he is referring to already answered, but.....he kinda made a rant of it and his post got deleted.
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#16 Postby jkt21787 » Thu Jul 07, 2005 6:29 pm

loon wrote:I believe the guy that he is referring to already answered, but.....he kinda made a rant of it and his post got deleted.

Ah, I see. Wasn't here for that.
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