18z GFS Just Coming Out Now...

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ericinmia
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18z GFS Just Coming Out Now...

#1 Postby ericinmia » Thu Jul 07, 2005 4:37 pm

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Give it some time... The next frame should be done in a few more minutes.
-Eric

p.s. This is going to be very important.
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#2 Postby gatorcane » Thu Jul 07, 2005 4:40 pm

let us know when it's done....I'm praying for the FL Keys :cry:
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#3 Postby chris_fit » Thu Jul 07, 2005 4:43 pm

Not looking to good for the Keys after 3-4 frames
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#4 Postby Anonymous » Thu Jul 07, 2005 4:47 pm

Am I wrong, or does this put the storm in the Florida staights? Isn't this further east than expected?
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#5 Postby deltadog03 » Thu Jul 07, 2005 4:48 pm

man...GFS is ALL over the place...first west, then east, now stupid east..lol
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#6 Postby manofsteele79 » Thu Jul 07, 2005 4:49 pm

Keep in mind the GFS had Ivan visiting Miami. Sometimes it doesn't do well with the stronger hurricanes.
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#7 Postby gatorcane » Thu Jul 07, 2005 4:49 pm

it's shifting more East? :eek:
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#8 Postby baitism » Thu Jul 07, 2005 4:50 pm

It looks like it crosses cuba farther east then expected and then heads WNW across the florida staright into the GOM. That would not be a good track, as it would give Dennis time to strengthen before hitting the keys.
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Ewww

#9 Postby WhirlWind » Thu Jul 07, 2005 4:51 pm

Not looking good for any of Southern Fl.
WhirlWind
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#10 Postby Agua » Thu Jul 07, 2005 4:55 pm

Wow. It has it making a NNW turn pretty shortly. :eek:
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#11 Postby jbgreig » Thu Jul 07, 2005 4:56 pm

Agua wrote:Wow. It has it making a NNW turn pretty shortly. :eek:


Doesn't the 10th image seem to push it almost due West?
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#12 Postby ericinmia » Thu Jul 07, 2005 4:57 pm

baitism wrote:It looks like it crosses cuba farther east then expected and then heads WNW across the florida staright into the GOM. That would not be a good track, as it would give Dennis time to strengthen before hitting the keys.


That is exactly correct.

The Nam model i said wasn't off on the last run, doesn't look soo bad now.

And for the people claiming that the gfs was horrible with IVAN???
Well the good model with IVAN the GEM/CMC it has a miami landfall...
so that argument can be thrown out.
-Eric

Here is why....
This should move it more northerly, then more westerly, just as the GFS predicts. We just need to hope that the ridge can hold not continue to errode east.
Image
Last edited by ericinmia on Thu Jul 07, 2005 5:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#13 Postby Agua » Thu Jul 07, 2005 4:57 pm

Yeah, it eventually turns more westerly, but that NNW movement is going to put the lower keys in harms way.
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more like...

#14 Postby LilNoles2005 » Thu Jul 07, 2005 4:57 pm

more like WNW at the 10th frame... the beginnings of this run don't look too feasible to me already... also, by the end of the loop, it looks like Dennis has weakened quite a bit.
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Scorpion

#15 Postby Scorpion » Thu Jul 07, 2005 4:58 pm

Also weakens Dennis significantly after his trip in Cuba.
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#16 Postby deltadog03 » Thu Jul 07, 2005 4:59 pm

yeah cuz gfs wants to bring him over the biggest part of cuba..imagine that
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#17 Postby ALhurricane » Thu Jul 07, 2005 5:01 pm

I wouldn't worry too much about the 18z model runs.

It will be tonight's 00z runs that will hold high interest. Those runs will have the new G-IV upper air data in them.
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ericinmia
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#18 Postby ericinmia » Thu Jul 07, 2005 5:01 pm

deltadog03 wrote:yeah cuz gfs wants to bring him over the biggest part of cuba..imagine that


That is also the most mountaneous part of Cuba.
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#19 Postby Dean4Storms » Thu Jul 07, 2005 5:01 pm

Looks like the GFS is sending it further west again on the upper Gulf coast after it's northerly jog toward the Keys. This storm may cause alot of people some anxious waiting moments.

I'm getting concerned for Destin, FL now.
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Steve
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#20 Postby Steve » Thu Jul 07, 2005 5:03 pm

>>The Nam model i said wasn't off on the last run, doesn't look soo bad now.

The NAM can be unpredictable. I saw the convection off of Coastal Carolina this morning too.

>>And for the people claiming that the gfs was horrible with IVAN???
Well the good model with IVAN the GEM/CMC it has a miami landfall...
so that argument can be thrown out.

The GFS was bringing nearly every storm up north into the Atlantic until it passed that point and tried it again all through last year. It eventually clues in but has problems with heat transfers which is why it always wants to turn something up and out. I'm not saying it's right or wrong, only time will tell. But it isn't above criticism either IMHO.

Steve
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