LLC has formed over E. Atlantic...TD likely next 24-36 hours

[timeflow]

That B&W image is one of those that started as a full-disk and you can point/click to zoom in. These WV images just look stunning.

That new wave is just so large, if it ain't fish, it's killer whale. Maybe it go poof, but man, I think back to last year with Ivan, starting at low latitudes... it entered my "full-Atlantic" WV images from the GOES archives (saved several months of these 30-minute incremental images for a great fast slideshow of most of the '04 season) with excellent outflow and quickly spun up into a strange looking windmill, and thereafter intensified dramatically. But really now... this is July! or "Is this July?" Although after last year anything can happen.


So anyhow this image has a bit of Cindy, the first Hurricane Dennis, and the huge new wave... quite a looker, especially with the added irony of the date at top left.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If we have the E storm before August it will be a record...I'm thinking that this may turn out like most Cape verde storms do.(Fishy...Yes I'm trying hard not to scare people)

[Hyperstorm]

Evening Update:

The STRONG tropical low that exited the coast of Africa this afternoon is just off the coast of Africa near 10N and 20W. Yes, the low is well east of the main area of thunderstorms that is seen SSW of the Cape Verde islands.

As was commented earlier, this mass of supposedly "organized" convection you see was a squall line that moved off the coast earlier today. These squalls move VERY rapidly westward until they dissipate. This one is NO exception. The strong burst you see will most likely dissipate during the next 24 hours as it will run much faster than the low itself. While this is happening, the low pressure system will stay behind moving westward at a slower pace.

Currently, the low pressure is devoid of significant forcing, thus convection is at a minimum near its center. As it moves westward, conditions should allow this to regenerate convection near its core and depending on how much convection there is and how long it lasts, it might start causing a deepening of the low pressure center.

Having said that, this is one of the strongest waves/lows to come off Africa this year and if it does NOT develop where it is now (Eastern Atlantic), the potential will be there for it to gain momentum as it moves westward since it is a very well-defined system...

[wxwatcher91]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU JUL 07 2005

...TROPICAL WAVES...

1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 12N19W...IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
ITCZ PRECIPITATION...MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 20W.

[Hyperstorm]

Noon Update:

The well-defined tropical low in the Eastern Atlantic has continued moving westward. Convection associated with the squall line has dissipated as expected, but the wave/low has remained distinct near 12N 22W. It appears that there's also a mid-level circulation just to its west near 12N 27W. It is quite probable that this MLC becomes the dominant system as it tracks westward, since it appears that it is creating the most forcing and energy is being drawn towards it.

Conditions remain generally favorable for this to become something down the road. Current SSTs are warm enough to sustain development, but while UL winds are pretty favorable, there appears to be some light easterly shear which should slow development. Also, even though the SAL has eased up, it has not moved completely away.

The overall envelope of the system is quite broad, so chances for development are higher than average. As this low moves westward, it will have to monitored closely.

84* and rising...

[Hyperstorm]

Oh goodness! Latest satellite images indicate that the mid-level circulation associated with the strong tropical wave over the Eastern Atlantic is slowly becoming better organized. Thunderstorms are starting to re-fire over its western flank, and as was said yesterday, if this convection persists......I don't want to imagine what will happen. I'm asking everyone! Are we in July?!?!? I've been following the tropics for MANY, MANY years and I have NEVER seen something like this. WOW!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The models take it above 15 north before 45 west. I expect it to recurve. In yes this will be alot like 1995. This will likely be talked about soon by the nhc.

[Hurricanehink]

Why is it not in the TWO? They could at least mention it. Probably too busy with Dennis, and don't want to raise panic. It is only July 7th.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Guest what the member that said that it could hit Africa maybe right. The Gfs is hinting at a northward track.

While the MM5 takes it into Africa.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/mm5 ... 00/14.html


This could be a rare tropical storm into Africa.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 10.6N 22.0W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 07.07.2005 10.6N 22.0W MODERATE

00UTC 08.07.2005 11.2N 24.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 08.07.2005 11.9N 26.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 09.07.2005 13.0N 28.0W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY

12UTC 09.07.2005 12.4N 30.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 10.07.2005 12.5N 34.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 10.07.2005 13.6N 37.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 11.07.2005 14.8N 39.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 11.07.2005 14.9N 41.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 12.07.2005 14.7N 43.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 12.07.2005 15.5N 45.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 13.07.2005 15.5N 48.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 13.07.2005 16.0N 50.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12z UKMET

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Gfs taking it northward...
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... 2/111.html

[Hyperstorm]

Guest what the member that said that it could hit Africa maybe right. The Gfs is hinting at a northward track.

While the MM5 takes it into Africa.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/mm5 ... 00/14.html


This could be a rare tropical storm into Africa.

The tropical disturbance is well west of where it was initialized there. If something is going to develop, it will be west of 25W.

Regardless, the system has a very broad scope and could easily gain momentum as convection continues to develop. Any development will likely be slow since it has to consolidate. That can take up to 48 hours...

[cycloneye]

Looks good in sat pic with some little bands and convection forming near the MLC around 11n.

[Hyperstorm]

Latest Update:

Satellite images over the Eastern Atlantic Ocean continue to suggest a slow increase of convection associated with a westward moving tropical disturbance. It appears that the system is no longer as broad as it was, which means that it has consolidated near 12N 28W. The area of deepest convection seems well-stacked with what seems to be a mid-level circulation.

If this current convection holds together (at the very least) or deepens further, the system could become a tropical cyclone over the next couple of days. It will likely take another 36 hours to further consolidate.

If the system remains as well-defined as it is, even if it doesn't develop where it is, it will likely pose a developing threat in the western half of the Atlantic Basin where Hurricane Dennis got started...

[cycloneye]

Yes it has mantained a good signature as the pic that I posted above shows.I wonder why the NHC has not mention it in the TWO.

[Stratusxpeye]

I know why. Bc theres a cat 4 almost 5 bearing down on cuba then the gulf coast. They dont want a repeat of last year where we were discussing the next one b4 the first one ever even hit. But just my opinion. Maybe theyll mention it 5am or tommorrow sometime.

[Hyperstorm]

It's most likely because it's not an immediate threat to land and is so far away. They can deal with it when Dennis departs the picture. It also doesn't appear to have a well-defined center, so Dvorak will not give it any numbers, yet. Once we see a Dvorak classification, we'll probably see them mentioning it.

Tomorrow should probably be the earliest they'll mention it, if it continues to develop convection near the MLC...

[Hyperstorm]

Cycloneye, it continues to organize.

There is some easterly shear in the Eastern Atlantic and some dry air, but it should not be enough to inhibit development of this system over the next few days.

If there's any good news that I can see from this, is that it is already moving somewhat more north than due west, and if it develops it will probably move even more poleward.

We'll see how it pans out...

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WAVE ADDED NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 26W S OF
18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THERE IS A 1013 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE
NEAR 12N. THE E ATLC HAS A COMPLICATED STRUCTURE RIGHT NOW WITH
TWO DISTURBANCES WITHIN ABOUT 8 DEGREES OF ONE ANOTHER... A 1014
MB LOW IS NEAR 11N34W. THESE SYSTEMS APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY
MOVING WESTWARD AND IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE IF THEY ARE
BOTH ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES. A FEW TSTMS ARE BEING
GENERATED BY THE LOWS THOUGH THE WESTERN ONE IS ABOUT TO ENTER
MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT.


Finnally TPC talks about it but Blake says dry air is ahead of it.

[Hyperstorm]

Morning Update:

The tropical disturbance over the Eastern Atlantic ocean is becoming better organized this morning. As was suggested earlier, the NHC is starting to mention it during the Tropical Weather Outlook.

The disturbance has been composed of 2 separate entities that have a made a larger disturbance. It appears that the LLC has developed further west than earlier near 11N 38W. Convection is increasing over this small LLC and it is ONLY a matter of hours before we start seeing some good organized development out of this system.

Easterly shear is the main problem this system is experiencing, although is not inhibiting development at all. There is some dry air, but is not having any influence in the system as we can see this morning, due to convection increase near the center.

Development is appearing likely over the next 24 hours and a tropical depression could develop as early as tomorrow. I'll be watching this system as it now appears that the system is not going to be too far away from the Lesser Antilles and it could become a threat down the road.

If anyone thought that was it, they're wrong. Another STRONG tropical disturbance is poised to move offshore Africa during the next 24 hours...