Recon Reports Dennis

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senorpepr
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#381 Postby senorpepr » Thu Jul 07, 2005 3:47 pm

I don't believe this is an ERC. There are no reports of concertric eyewalls. As for the pressure "raising," recon probably missed the point of lowest pressure. It looks like the storm has steadied off for a bit...

More deepening in the future, however.
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#382 Postby clfenwi » Thu Jul 07, 2005 3:49 pm

Plane: AF300
Observation Number: 03
Time: 2035
Position: 27.2 North // 92.9 West
Sea Level Pressure 1014 millibars
Surface winds: 1 knots // 310
1000 millibar height: 125 meters
1000 millibar winds: 2 knots //355
925 millibar height: 812 meters
925 millibar winds: 3 knots // 260
850 millibar height: 546 meters
850 millibar winds: 2 knots // 305
700 millibar height: 3188 meters
700 millibar winds: 3 knots // 005
500 millibar height: 5590 meters
500 millibar winds: 9 knots // 225
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#383 Postby Thunder44 » Thu Jul 07, 2005 3:54 pm

senorpepr wrote:I don't believe this is an ERC. There are no reports of concertric eyewalls. As for the pressure "raising," recon probably missed the point of lowest pressure. It looks like the storm has steadied off for a bit...

More deepening in the future, however.


Well, if they did miss it, why do they have the same pressure in the 5pm advisory?
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#384 Postby gkrangers » Thu Jul 07, 2005 3:58 pm

Thunder44 wrote:
senorpepr wrote:I don't believe this is an ERC. There are no reports of concertric eyewalls. As for the pressure "raising," recon probably missed the point of lowest pressure. It looks like the storm has steadied off for a bit...

More deepening in the future, however.


Well, if they did miss it, why do they have the same pressure in the 5pm advisory?
Because thats the lowest pressure recorded in the most recent center fix?
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#385 Postby senorpepr » Thu Jul 07, 2005 3:59 pm

Storm Name: DENNIS (04L)
Mission Number: 04
Flight ID: AF304
Observation Number: 21
Time: 2048Z
Latitude: 19.6°N
Longitude: 75.8°W
Location: 44 mi WSW of Guantanamo, Cuba
Turbulence: Occasional Moderate
Flight condition: In cloud
Pressure Altitude: 10000 feet
Flight level wind: SE (140°) @ 86 mph
Temperature: 43°F
Dewpoint: 43°F
Weather: Thunderstorm
700mb height: 10200 feet
Surface Wind: N/A
Remarks: None
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#386 Postby wxwatcher91 » Thu Jul 07, 2005 4:00 pm

OMG does nobody take into account that Dennis was just like 50 miles from land??? it just weakened a bit
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#387 Postby senorpepr » Thu Jul 07, 2005 4:01 pm

Thunder44 wrote:
senorpepr wrote:I don't believe this is an ERC. There are no reports of concertric eyewalls. As for the pressure "raising," recon probably missed the point of lowest pressure. It looks like the storm has steadied off for a bit...

More deepening in the future, however.


Well, if they did miss it, why do they have the same pressure in the 5pm advisory?


Because they can't go around assuming the pressure is different.
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#388 Postby wxwatcher91 » Thu Jul 07, 2005 4:04 pm

no it just weakened
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#389 Postby gkrangers » Thu Jul 07, 2005 4:06 pm

wxwatcher91 wrote:no it just weakened
Care to support that claim meteorologically?
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#390 Postby wxwatcher91 » Thu Jul 07, 2005 4:11 pm

yeah it went 50 miles from land
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#391 Postby senorpepr » Thu Jul 07, 2005 4:26 pm

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
Storm Name: DENNIS (04L)
Mission Number: 04
Flight ID: AF304
Observation Number: 22
Time: 21:08:30Z
Latitude: 19°N
Longitude: 76.7°W
Location: 75 mi N of Kingston, Jamaica
Minimum height at 700 mb 2726 m
Est. Surface Winds Observed: NA
Distance and bearing from center to max surface wind: NA
Maximum flight level wind: SSE (161°) @ 139 mph
Distance and bearing from center to max flight level wind: 14 mi ENE (75°)
Sea level pressure: 956 mb
Max flight level temperature outside the eye: 45°F at 10023 feet
Max flight level temperature inside the eye: 61°F at 9984 feet
Dewpoint temperature inside the eye: 52°F
Eye character: OPEN N-E
Eye shape: Circular
Eye diameter: 17 mi
Fix determined by: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature at 700 mb
Navigation / Met Accuracy: 0.05 / 1 nm
MAX FL WIND 121 KT E QUAD 21:04:50 Z
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#392 Postby Scorpion » Thu Jul 07, 2005 4:27 pm

110 kt surface winds.
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#393 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Jul 07, 2005 4:28 pm

956 mililbars again. With 121 knots winds over the Eastern quad. WOW WOW WOW. THe northeast quad is normally stronger then the Eastern to.


I can't stand these errors/IN lock outs :grrr:
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#394 Postby senorpepr » Thu Jul 07, 2005 4:29 pm

Storm Name: DENNIS (04L)
Mission Number: 04
Flight ID: AF304
Observation Number: 24
Time: 2117Z
Latitude: 18.7°N
Longitude: 77.0°W
Location: 55 mi NNW of Kingston, Jamaica
Turbulence: None
Flight condition: In & out of clouds
Pressure Altitude: 10000 feet
Flight level wind: WNW (300°) @ 54 mph
Temperature: 52°F
Dewpoint: 46°F
Weather: Thunderstorm
700mb height: 10000 feet
Surface Wind: N/A
Remarks: None
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#395 Postby clfenwi » Thu Jul 07, 2005 4:29 pm

Plane: AF300
Observation Number: 04
Time: 2053Z
Location: 27.3 North // 91.0 West
Sea Level pressure: 1013 millibars
surface wind: n/a
1000 millibar height: 119 meters
1000 millibar wind: n/a
925 millibar height: 805 meters
9250 millibar winds: n/a
850 millibar height: 1538 meters
850 millibar winds: 1 knot // 250
700 millibar height: 3179 meters
700 millibar winds: n/a
500 millibar height: 5590 meters
500 millibar winds: 11 knots // 225
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#396 Postby clfenwi » Thu Jul 07, 2005 4:35 pm

Plane: AF300
Observation Number: 05
Time: 2111Z
Position: 27.5 North // 89.1 West
Sea Level Pressure: 1014 millibars
Surface wind speed and direction: 4 knots // 035
1000 millibar height: 126 meters
1000 millibar winds: 3 knots // 030
925 millibar height: 812 meters
925 millibar winds: 1 knot // 025
850 millibar height: 1543 meters
850 millibar winds: 3 knots // 350
700 millibar height: 3185 meters
700 millibar winds: 11 knots // 255
500 millibar height: 5900 meters
500 millibar winds: 11 knots // 220
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#397 Postby clfenwi » Thu Jul 07, 2005 4:38 pm

Plane: AF304
Observation Number: 25
Time: 2124Z
Position: 19.0 North 76.7 West
Sea Level Pressure: 956 millibars
Surface wind speed and direction: 14 knots // 155
925 millibar height: 291 meters
925 millibar winds: 12 knots // 175
850 millibar height: 1036 meters
850 millibar winds: 12 knots// 180
700 millibar height: 2717 meters
700 millibar winds: 100 knots // 155

Eye dropsonde
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#398 Postby clfenwi » Thu Jul 07, 2005 4:41 pm

Observation Number: 23
Time: 2120Z
Position: 19.1 North // 76.4 West
Sea Level Pressure: 983 millibars
Surface wind speed and direction: 101 knots // 105
925 millibar height: 535 meters
925 millibar winds: 96 knots // 130
850 millibar height: 1269 meters
850 millibar winds: 108 knots // 135
700 millibar height: 2919 meters
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#399 Postby senorpepr » Thu Jul 07, 2005 4:59 pm

Storm Name: DENNIS (04L)
Mission Number: 04
Flight ID: AF304
Observation Number: 26
Time: 2148Z
Latitude: 17.9°N
Longitude: 75.6°W
Location: 78 mi E of Kingston, Jamaica
Turbulence: None
Flight condition: In cloud
Pressure Altitude: 10000 feet
Flight level wind: SSW (200°) @ 55 mph
Temperature: 41°F
Dewpoint: 41°F
Weather: Thunderstorm
700mb height: 10300 feet
Surface Wind: N/A
Remarks: None
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#400 Postby senorpepr » Thu Jul 07, 2005 5:16 pm

Storm Name: DENNIS (04L)
Mission Number: 06
Flight ID: AF300
Observation Number: 09
Time: 2211Z
Latitude: 25.1°N
Longitude: 93.1°W
Location: 260 mi ESE of Brownsville, Texas
Turbulence: None
Flight condition: Clear
Pressure Altitude: 28000 feet
Flight level wind: S (170°) @ 13 mph
Temperature: -15°F
Dewpoint: -35°F
Weather: Scattered Skies
D-value: 1600 feet
Surface Wind: N/A
Remarks: None
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