We have a major!!!
Hurricane Dennis Forecast/Advisory Number 13
Statement as of 21:00Z on July 07, 2005
at 5 PM EDT...2100z...a Hurricane Warning is issued for the lower
Florida Keys from the Seven Mile Bridge westward to the Dry
Tortugas...and a Tropical Storm Warning is issued for the remainder
of the Florida Keys...east of the Seven Mile Bridge to Ocean Reef
and Florida Bay. A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the
Florida Keys east of the Seven Mile Bridge to Ocean Reef and
Florida Bay.
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for The Provinces of Matanzas...
Villa Clara... Cienfuegos...Sancti Spiritus...Ciego de Avila...
Camaguey...Las Tunas...Granma...Santiago de Cuba...and Guantanamo.
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the remaining provinces of
Cuba including the Isle of Youth...Pinar del Rio...la Habana...
Ciudad de la Habana...and Holguin.
A hurricane or Tropical Storm Warning means that hurricane or
tropical storm conditions...respectively...are expected within the
warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion in the Hurricane
Warning area.
A tropical storm watch is in effect for all of the southern Florida
Peninsula from Golden Beach southward on the East Coast and south
of Bonita Beach on the West Coast.
A hurricane or tropical storm watch means that hurricane or tropical
storm conditions...respectively...are possible within the watch
area...generally within 36 hours.
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the southwestern peninsula
of Haiti from the Dominican Republic border westward...all of
Jamaica...and all of the Cayman Islands.
Interests in the central and western Caribbean Sea should monitor
the progress of this system.
Hurricane center located near 19.0n 76.6w at 07/2100z
position accurate within 15 nm
present movement toward the northwest or 310 degrees at 13 kt
estimated minimum central pressure 957 mb
eye diameter 10 nm
Max sustained winds 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt.
64 kt....... 40ne 30se 15sw 30nw.
50 kt....... 75ne 70se 20sw 50nw.
34 kt.......120ne 110se 75sw 100nw.
12 ft seas..120ne 150se 75sw 100nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.
Repeat...center located near 19.0n 76.6w at 07/2100z
at 07/1800z center was located near 18.6n 76.1w
forecast valid 08/0600z 20.4n 78.4w
Max wind 115 kt...gusts 140 kt.
64 kt... 40ne 30se 15sw 30nw.
50 kt... 75ne 70se 20sw 50nw.
34 kt...120ne 110se 75sw 100nw.
Forecast valid 08/1800z 22.3n 80.5w...inland
Max wind 95 kt...gusts 115 kt.
64 kt... 40ne 30se 15sw 30nw.
50 kt... 75ne 75se 30sw 60nw.
34 kt...120ne 120se 75sw 100nw.
Forecast valid 09/0600z 24.2n 82.5w
Max wind 100 kt...gusts 120 kt.
64 kt... 40ne 30se 15sw 30nw.
50 kt... 75ne 75se 40sw 60nw.
34 kt...140ne 120se 90sw 120nw.
Forecast valid 09/1800z 26.0n 84.0w
Max wind 105 kt...gusts 130 kt.
50 kt... 75ne 75se 50sw 70nw.
34 kt...140ne 130se 100sw 140nw.
Forecast valid 10/1800z 30.0n 86.5w
Max wind 105 kt...gusts 130 kt.
50 kt... 80ne 80se 60sw 70nw.
34 kt...140ne 140se 110sw 140nw.
Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day
outlook valid 11/1800z 35.0n 88.0w...inland
Max wind 30 kt...gusts 40 kt.
Outlook valid 12/1800z 38.0n 87.5w...inland
Max wind 20 kt...gusts 25 kt.
Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 19.0n 76.6w
next advisory at 08/0300z
forecaster Pasch
