FL Panhandle threat increasing?

[N2FSU]

Interesting excerpt from the 2pm Tallahassee Area Forecast Discussion:

.LONG TERM (SUN-THU)...
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF DENNIS. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FASTER IN BRINGING
DENNIS INTO THE GULF, WHICH IS UNFORTUNATE FOR US BECAUSE THERE WILL
STILL BE WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS TROUGHING MAY PULL
THE STORM MORE NORTHWARD THAN NORTHWESTWARD, BEFORE THE RIDGING HAS A
CHANCE TO DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS SCENARIO POSES A
GREATER DANGER TO OUR FORECAST AREA AS DENNIS MAY MAKE LANDFALL NOT
FAR TO OUR WEST (OR PERHAPS IN OUR AREA). DENNIS WILL LIKELY BE A
LARGE AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF IT. WE HAVE FOLLOWED THE 12 UTC GFS,
00 UTC MEX MOS, AND LATEST WAVE WATCH AND NHC GUIDANCE FOR THE
EXTENDED PACKAGE. BY TUESDAY WE WILL PROBABLY RETURN TO MORE NORMAL
SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.

[Scorpion]

Yes if anything the Peninsula threat is increasing as well. I think its going to the Big Bend area.

[caneman]

This my friends would not be good for us in Pinellas County -Tampa Bay. The area that was suppose to get hit by Charley. A 50 miles brush to the West would not good at all. Is our time up?

[wxcrazytwo]

If true, then it will scrape the west heading into that areas. However, I don't see it going WNW, and then turning back into the Big Bend Area.

[jkt21787]

Although I'm not thinking it will be a panhandle landfall yet, the threat is certainly increasing. Watch this very closely.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think some ones time is up.

[mahicks]

Interesting excerpt from the 2pm Tallahassee Area Forecast Discussion:

.LONG TERM (SUN-THU)...
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF DENNIS. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FASTER IN BRINGING
DENNIS INTO THE GULF, WHICH IS UNFORTUNATE FOR US BECAUSE THERE WILL
STILL BE WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS TROUGHING MAY PULL
THE STORM MORE NORTHWARD THAN NORTHWESTWARD, BEFORE THE RIDGING HAS A
CHANCE TO DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS SCENARIO POSES A
GREATER DANGER TO OUR FORECAST AREA AS DENNIS MAY MAKE LANDFALL NOT
FAR TO OUR WEST (OR PERHAPS IN OUR AREA). DENNIS WILL LIKELY BE A
LARGE AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF IT. WE HAVE FOLLOWED THE 12 UTC GFS,
00 UTC MEX MOS, AND LATEST WAVE WATCH AND NHC GUIDANCE FOR THE
EXTENDED PACKAGE. BY TUESDAY WE WILL PROBABLY RETURN TO MORE NORMAL
SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.

Im in Tally also, actually Havana, FL
I saw the same discussion.

My entire family and my wifes live in Gulf Shores, AL, Daphne, AL, and Mobile, so to be honest, I would like to believe the Tally discussion.....Only This puts ME under the gun

I was supposed to go deep sea fishing from Panama City, FL on Sat...Can you believe I called my boss today and he said the captain says we still might go out??

[N2Storms]

was supposed to go deep sea fishing from Panama City, FL on Sat...Can you believe I called my boss today and he said the captain says we still might go out??




You might want to make sure that you have plenty of Dramamine because once Dennis is in the Gulf the seas will start picking up quickly...

[mahicks]

My wife has made it very clear that if the captain still decides to go, that I will be loosing my deposit, period no questions asked. Thank goodness for the wifey! I'd much rather say "she won't let me go." Than have to say "I'm too scared to go!"

[Brent]

was supposed to go deep sea fishing from Panama City, FL on Sat...Can you believe I called my boss today and he said the captain says we still might go out??




You might want to make sure that you have plenty of Dramamine because once Dennis is in the Gulf the seas will start picking up quickly...

Tell him you'll stay to identify the bodies.

[Cookiely]

My wife has made it very clear that if the captain still decides to go, that I will be loosing my deposit, period no questions asked. Thank goodness for the wifey! I'd much rather say "she won't let me go." Than have to say "I'm too scared to go!"

Not to scared. Too intelligent to go.

[LilNoles2005]

Interesting excerpt from the 2pm Tallahassee Area Forecast Discussion:

.LONG TERM (SUN-THU)...
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF DENNIS. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FASTER IN BRINGING
DENNIS INTO THE GULF, WHICH IS UNFORTUNATE FOR US BECAUSE THERE WILL
STILL BE WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS TROUGHING MAY PULL
THE STORM MORE NORTHWARD THAN NORTHWESTWARD, BEFORE THE RIDGING HAS A
CHANCE TO DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS SCENARIO POSES A
GREATER DANGER TO OUR FORECAST AREA AS DENNIS MAY MAKE LANDFALL NOT
FAR TO OUR WEST (OR PERHAPS IN OUR AREA). DENNIS WILL LIKELY BE A
LARGE AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF IT. WE HAVE FOLLOWED THE 12 UTC GFS,
00 UTC MEX MOS, AND LATEST WAVE WATCH AND NHC GUIDANCE FOR THE
EXTENDED PACKAGE. BY TUESDAY WE WILL PROBABLY RETURN TO MORE NORMAL
SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.

N2FSU, you ready (just in case) for Dennis? I'm down here in Wakulla, anxiously watching what's going on.

[N2FSU]

Hey LilNole!

I'm somewhat ready... I still have my supplies from last year but need to get more batteries. I remember how fast they ran out of them at WalMart last year! To add to my anxiety level... I am a Paramedic in Tallahassee and I am supposed to be heading to Cape San Blas on Sunday for a childrens Burn Camp we put on down there every July. We are hoping to make a go/ no go decision tomorrow. Most of the kids come from the Gainesville area and we obviously can't be sending 45 kids in the general direction of a landfalling hurricane. Looks like many sleepless nights ahead!

Be safe down there in Wakulla!

[Brent]

This my friends would not be good for us in Pinellas County -Tampa Bay. The area that was suppose to get hit by Charley. A 50 miles brush to the West would not good at all. Is our time up?

Didn't Tampa get almost nothing from Charley?? I mean the cities directly North and West of Port Charllote/Punta Gorda got almost nothing I thought...like North Port and Bradenton/Sarasota.

Charley was also a small hurricane.

[MGC]

It is not out of the realm of possibilities the Dennis could ride the coast up the western Florida Pensiula. Like David did on the east coast years ago (1979?). I currenly doubt this track will pan out, but be on your toes.....MGC

[jrod]

Ive posted that it could ride up the west side a few times already on here. Like David just on the west side.

The entire Tampa Bay is so vulnerable to storm surge and they've been spared a lot with a lot of false calls. It is also another area where evacuations are a nightmare.

[jrod]

AND the Appalachacola Bay is probaly the most vulnerable place for surge in Florida and as the forecasted track stands now they are on track for one of those worst case scenerioes.

With the excpetion of Ivan, Florida got it easy with the storm surge. my thinking is this storm will have a nasty surge.

[mahicks]

AND the Apalachicola Bay is probably the most vulnerable place for surge in Florida and as the fore-casted track stands now they are on track for one of those worst case scenarios.

With the exception of Ivan, Florida got it easy with the storm surge. my thinking is this storm will have a nasty surge.

OMG!! Someone not from this area knows something about here.

I only say this because last year I had to wade through numerous posts about
the Apalachicola to Big Bend area being a, and I quote "Great place for Ivan to strike, due to lack of metropolitan areas and a small population. I guess they forgot this area has THE greatest chance for maximum storm surge due to the coastal shelf and the densest Forest in Florida, but I guess we don't care about trees now do we??

Sorry about my Rant....I've been seeing this trend start back up on other boards all day since the track is changing back east.

BTW Thank you for not being from this area and speaking intelligently about our home.