12z UKMET...

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9628
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Gulf of Gavin Newsom

12z UKMET...

#1 Postby Steve » Thu Jul 07, 2005 12:31 pm

Might end up being the western outlier. It still has a St. Mary Parish/Iberia Parish solution for whatever reason. That's pretty much South Central LA.

I haven't seen the 12z European yet to see if it continued with its trend or if it moved further eastward yet.

Steve
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Innotech
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1031
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 5:32 pm
Location: Lafayette, Louisiana
Contact:
Contact Innotech

#2 Postby Innotech » Thu Jul 07, 2005 2:37 pm

it better be, because Lafayette is just northwest of Iberia Parish.
I really highly doubt at htis point that it is coming htis way. not so sure about excluding N.O. completely though.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
LAwxrgal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1763
Joined: Tue Jul 06, 2004 1:05 pm
Location: Reserve, LA (30 mi west of NOLA)

#3 Postby LAwxrgal » Thu Jul 07, 2005 2:44 pm

UKMET is the western outlier.
FWIW, a poster in another post said the Euro showed a Mobile landfall.
0 likes   
Andrew 92/Isidore & Lili 02/Bill 03/Katrina & Rita 05/Gustav & Ike 08/Isaac 12 (flooded my house)/Harvey 17/Barry 19/Cristobal 20/Claudette 21/Ida 21 (In the Eye)/Francine 24
Wake me up when November ends
Top
Stormcenter
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6685
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:27 am
Location: Houston, TX

Re: 12z UKMET...

#4 Postby Stormcenter » Thu Jul 07, 2005 2:45 pm

Steve wrote:Might end up being the western outlier. It still has a St. Mary Parish/Iberia Parish solution for whatever reason. That's pretty much South Central LA.

I haven't seen the 12z European yet to see if it continued with its trend or if it moved further eastward yet.

Steve


In my opinion this is amazing. What is it (UKMET)seeing that the other models are missing or what is it missing that the other models aren't. I hope no one lets down their guard down just yet in LA.MS. or AL despite what the model consensus is currently showing.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
dhweather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6199
Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2004 9:29 pm
Location: Heath, TX
Contact:
Contact dhweather

#5 Postby dhweather » Thu Jul 07, 2005 2:45 pm

It was the ECMWF that is near Mobile, the UKMET is still SC LA
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
deltadog03
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3580
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:16 pm
Location: Macon, GA

#6 Postby deltadog03 » Thu Jul 07, 2005 2:45 pm

hey, the ukmet could be right....they are clearly thinking the ridge will hold it west...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cajungal
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2336
Age: 49
Joined: Sun Mar 14, 2004 9:34 pm
Location: Schriever, Louisiana (60 miles southwest of New Orleans)

Re: 12z UKMET...

#7 Postby cajungal » Thu Jul 07, 2005 2:58 pm

Steve wrote:Might end up being the western outlier. It still has a St. Mary Parish/Iberia Parish solution for whatever reason. That's pretty much South Central LA.

I haven't seen the 12z European yet to see if it continued with its trend or if it moved further eastward yet.

Steve
I just clicked on it. It got it going straight up Terrebonne Bay. It has been pretty consistent. That is the model JB is going by. He still thinks Dennis will come just to the west of New Orleans like Betsy.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Cape Verde
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 564
Age: 70
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 5:53 pm
Location: Houston area

#8 Postby Cape Verde » Thu Jul 07, 2005 3:04 pm

Look at the http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=40103 12Z Mean Ensemble
0 likes   
Top
jkt21787
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2061
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 5:27 pm
Location: Memphis, TN

#9 Postby jkt21787 » Thu Jul 07, 2005 3:07 pm

This has also been noted here...(GFS ensemble)
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=66659
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: wwizard and 630 guests