T number=5.5/5.5

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cycloneye
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T number=5.5/5.5

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 07, 2005 1:33 pm

07/1745 UTC 18.5N 76.0W T5.5/5.5 DENNIS

With the pressure dropping to 956 mbs and the SSD T numbers going to to 5.5 which means 117 mph at 5 PM advisory they officially will upgrade to cat 3.
Last edited by cycloneye on Thu Jul 07, 2005 3:28 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#2 Postby jkt21787 » Thu Jul 07, 2005 1:35 pm

This thing is bombing before our eyes! Cat 4 anyone?
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#3 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jul 07, 2005 1:35 pm

Luis, 117 knots will be a cat. 4, it should be 115 mph, cat.3!
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#4 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Jul 07, 2005 1:36 pm

I think it will be a cat4 with in 24 hours. Maybe even a 5 is not out of the quastion by how hot these waters are.
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#5 Postby CaptinCrunch » Thu Jul 07, 2005 1:36 pm

Dennis went thru a ERC this morning and will go thru another in the next 24 hrs.
Last edited by CaptinCrunch on Thu Jul 07, 2005 1:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#6 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 07, 2005 1:39 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Luis, 117 knots will be a cat. 4, it should be 115 mph, cat.3!


oops edited. :)
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#7 Postby canegrl04 » Thu Jul 07, 2005 1:50 pm

Its not far fetched that Dennis will be 120mph hurricane by 5pm report :eek:
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#8 Postby msbee » Thu Jul 07, 2005 2:31 pm

sorry for my dumbness, but what's an ERC?
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#9 Postby nolecaster » Thu Jul 07, 2005 2:32 pm

eyewall replacement cycle
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#10 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Jul 07, 2005 2:33 pm

msbee wrote:sorry for my dumbness, but what's an ERC?

eyewall replacement cycle...eye breaksdwon and a new one forms, very common in strong systems
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#11 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 07, 2005 2:33 pm

msbee wrote:sorry for my dumbness, but what's an ERC?


Barbara that is Eyewall Replacement Cycle.
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#12 Postby dhweather » Thu Jul 07, 2005 2:34 pm

IT's not for Eyes Really Cramping?

Like my ERC from staring at satellite images all day?

:D
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#13 Postby x-y-no » Thu Jul 07, 2005 2:35 pm

cycloneye wrote:
msbee wrote:sorry for my dumbness, but what's an ERC?


Barbara that is Eyewall Replacement Cycle.


Looks to me like that's happening now. I've lost sight of the eye in the last half hour, and there's a nice big burst of convection right on the NE side of where it would be.

Jan
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#14 Postby wxwatcher91 » Thu Jul 07, 2005 2:50 pm

ya it looks like it to me... but it could just be suffering a bit from interaction with land
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#15 Postby skysummit » Thu Jul 07, 2005 2:52 pm

The eye has closed off. Maybe the beginning of an EWR.
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#16 Postby gkrangers » Thu Jul 07, 2005 2:55 pm

skysummit wrote:The eye has closed off. Maybe the beginning of an EWR.
EWR as in Eyewall Replacement which means the same thing as ERC. Just for perfect clarity.
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#17 Postby msbee » Thu Jul 07, 2005 3:04 pm

thanks for the help everyone
I know about eyewall replacement cyle occuring..just didn't know ERC and EWR .
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#18 Postby EarthStormFire » Thu Jul 07, 2005 3:08 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:I think it will be a cat4 with in 24 hours. Maybe even a 5 is not out of the quastion by how hot these waters are.


Not possible, Cat 4 is possible, but Cat 5 needs much warmer waters. Also when this enters the gulf it will weaken since current conditions in the gulf are unfavorable for development, don't be shocked if this thing reaches 4, enters the gulf and becomes a cat 1 or 2 before landfall.
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#19 Postby Coredesat » Thu Jul 07, 2005 3:18 pm

I'm definitely thinking that Dennis will be near category 4 strength within 24 hours. Doubt it will be any higher than that since it still has to cross Cuba.

Edited to add that the models do show some light to moderate shear developing over the GOM in the next 48-72 hours, so Dennis will probably be weaker when it makes landfall.
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Derek Ortt

#20 Postby Derek Ortt » Thu Jul 07, 2005 3:26 pm

cyc,

just need to clarify one thing

the winds do not justify an upgrade at this time. Cat 3 is based upon the wind,not the T numbers or pressure. The max FL winds so far were 102KT, which barely even supports the 95KT
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