Another Eastward Shift for 5pm Advisory?

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HurryKane
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Re: QUESTION FOR YOU POSTERS

#21 Postby HurryKane » Thu Jul 07, 2005 2:23 pm

Kevin_Cho wrote: but still, we must be vigilante,


Yep, I'm totally up for going and gunning down Dennis' considerable tush. ;) :D
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jujubean
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#22 Postby jujubean » Thu Jul 07, 2005 2:24 pm

just heard an update from brian norcross.....he said he expects nhc to extend track a little more east and expand watches to include broward and further north....he also stated hat if dennis stayed on its present course,the eye would pass over lower keys.
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#23 Postby jujubean » Thu Jul 07, 2005 2:32 pm

i can only hope your right kevin...since I'm supposed to be driving to nc tomorrow.
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clfenwi
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#24 Postby clfenwi » Thu Jul 07, 2005 2:46 pm

My gut feeling when I saw the track this morning is that the NHC wanted to shift the track even more east, but felt barred from doing so because of the need to maintain continuity.

The big question in my mind is: Did the inclusion of obs from the Gulfstream mission bring out the bias that GFS had last year for prematurely/overweakining ridges? If the GFS has fallen into its old bias, then I would expect the FSU Superensemble to smooth it out, which would yield a track similar to what it is now. If the answer to my question is no, then I would expect another rightward shift in the track, bringing point of landfall (center-line) to say, Fort Walton Beach...
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#25 Postby deltadog03 » Thu Jul 07, 2005 2:50 pm

look how off that track is though...Dennis is baaaarley of the coast of jamaica...not 60 miles off shore or whatever...
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#26 Postby dwg71 » Thu Jul 07, 2005 2:53 pm

deltadog03 wrote:look how off that track is though...Dennis is baaaarley of the coast of jamaica...not 60 miles off shore or whatever...


Your kidding right, its well off the coast of Jamaica...at least 60 miles
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Brent
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#27 Postby Brent » Thu Jul 07, 2005 3:28 pm

jujubean wrote:i can only hope your right kevin...since I'm supposed to be driving to nc tomorrow.


No problems tomorrow.
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chris_fit
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#28 Postby chris_fit » Thu Jul 07, 2005 3:28 pm

deltadog03 wrote:look how off that track is though...Dennis is baaaarley of the coast of jamaica...not 60 miles off shore or whatever...



Ayi Ayi Ayi

What Satellite you using? :roll:
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