18:00z Model Guidance=More Shift East,Ukmet the loner

[Derek Ortt]

all models have the dropsonde obs

The GFS remember had Ivan east of Miami and had Frances turning right into a 500mb ridge

[rtd2]

Why is Tampa NWS saying the ridge is weaker than expected and will be retreating eastward? This is probably the data the models are using now to shift east. Are those assumptions wrong?

Who knows... NO OTHER NWS forecast I've read in the Last Hr. is Saying this ..Infact Mobile's 1pm report Advises to prepare for TS conditions as soon as Saturday afternoon?

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

they also put a lot more emphasis on the remnants of Cindy strung across the northern gulf and a bit of energy they expect to reinforce it coming out of Texas.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE DENNIS (AL042005) ON 20050707 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050707 1800 050708 0600 050708 1800 050709 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.6N 76.1W 20.4N 78.3W 22.2N 80.2W 24.0N 81.7W
BAMM 18.6N 76.1W 20.8N 78.4W 22.8N 80.5W 24.6N 82.2W
A98E 18.6N 76.1W 20.3N 78.2W 22.0N 80.1W 24.0N 81.5W
LBAR 18.6N 76.1W 20.4N 78.1W 22.2N 80.0W 24.1N 81.6W
SHIP 95KTS 101KTS 108KTS 113KTS
DSHP 95KTS 99KTS 77KTS 76KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050709 1800 050710 1800 050711 1800 050712 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 26.0N 83.1W 30.5N 85.0W 35.8N 84.8W 37.5N 78.7W
BAMM 26.6N 83.8W 30.5N 86.0W 34.3N 87.0W 35.5N 84.3W
A98E 26.5N 82.6W 30.8N 84.6W 35.4N 84.3W 38.0N 78.3W
LBAR 25.8N 82.7W 28.7N 84.4W 31.4N 85.9W 33.3N 84.9W
SHIP 115KTS 107KTS 88KTS 62KTS
DSHP 77KTS 70KTS 32KTS 28KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.6N LONCUR = 76.1W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 16.7N LONM12 = 74.1W DIRM12 = 307DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 15.7N LONM24 = 71.9W
WNDCUR = 95KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 80KT
CENPRS = 962MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 240NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 110NM RD34SW = 75NM RD34NW = 100NM


I forgot to post the plots and the ship intensity which goes up to 115 kts.

[jkt21787]

Whats with the DSHIP weakening?

[LilNoles2005]

jkt, interaction with Cuba causing major disruption with the circulation?

[jkt21787]

jkt, interaction with Cuba 'cause major disruption with the circulation?

That what I thought but it continues to weaken or remain nearly steady all the way until landfall (this is a weak cat 1 accord to it). I guess Cuba could do it, I obviously am more inclined to go with the SHIP (maybe not as agressive at landfall) until we see what Cuba does to it.

[Weatherboy1]

all models have the dropsonde obs

I thought it was just the GFS that had those obs. Thanks for correcting me. I learn a new thing ever day around here.

-Mike

[Nimbus]

The ridge over Florida looks to be holding in the water vapor imagery?
The Texas short trough that was to reinforce the weakness left by Cindy looks like it will lift out by tomorrow.
That is not a pure 500 millibar steering analysis by any means but hopefully the 5 PM update will give us more information.

[clfenwi]

Question, has another GSIV flown out yet? Will it? If not, is the same data found last night fed back in each model run?

Answering your first question, the
first ob from the Gulfstream flight today was transmitted at 1956Z.