12z UKMET NOLA Again

#21 Postby **jasons2k** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 1:53 pm

Hey Lindaloo:

I wish. I wish I could call it a fish and it's swim away.......but no such luck.

Very concerned about S. LA. I think the latest model trend may catch a lot of people offguard/unprepared for what could happen. Pray, that's all I can say.

#22 Postby **deltadog03** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 2:04 pm

i agree...people will see this around LA..and think oh know we won't get it...don't buy it people

Innotech · #23 Postby **Innotech** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 3:18 pm

I sitll dont htink it iwll get htis far, but hte UKmet is tracing a scarily similar path to that mean lady Lili. Similar intensity too (Lili was cat 4 in the gulf)
Believe me if that sucker points this direction and starts heading here there WILL be mass evacuation. Ive spoken to al ot of friends and neighbors and people in htis area and they do not want to go through that again. Rest assured Louisiana would be prepared.

#24 Postby **jasons2k** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 3:32 pm

Innotech wrote:I sitll dont htink it iwll get htis far, but hte UKmet is tracing a scarily similar path to that mean lady Lili. Similar intensity too (Lili was cat 4 in the gulf)
Believe me if that sucker points this direction and starts heading here there WILL be mass evacuation. Ive spoken to al ot of friends and neighbors and people in htis area and they do not want to go through that again. Rest assured Louisiana would be prepared.

Path so far has been similiar, but this time don't expect the storm to be weakening on the way in as with Lili. Water profile is much different this time around.

#25 Postby **skysummit** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 3:36 pm

I just don't get what the heck the UKMET is picking up on. Why is it soooooooo far west of everything else? We know according to these models, the NHC will shift the track further east.

#26 Postby **deltadog03** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 3:37 pm

the RIDGE!!!! its saying its holding and building...

#27 Postby **skysummit** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 3:56 pm

deltadog03 wrote:the RIDGE!!!! its saying its holding and building...

Ok, but why aren't any of the other models picking up on this? Is the UKMET overestimating the strength of the ridge, or are the others underestimating it? If I was a betting man, I'd have to go with the majority and say the UKMET is over estimating it.

#28 Postby **deltadog03** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 3:58 pm

could be...or a little bit of both...we won't know for sure for a bit

#29 Postby **dhweather** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 3:58 pm

skysummit wrote:I just don't get what the heck the UKMET is picking up on. Why is it soooooooo far west of everything else? We know according to these models, the NHC will shift the track further east.

Two-fold

1) The ridge over Florida holds

2) Another ridge builds in from the upper plains to reinforce it

#30 Postby **deltadog03** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 4:00 pm

dhweather wrote:
skysummit wrote:I just don't get what the heck the UKMET is picking up on. Why is it soooooooo far west of everything else? We know according to these models, the NHC will shift the track further east.

Two-fold

1) The ridge over Florida holds

2) Another ridge builds in from the upper plains to reinforce it

yeah..thanks dhweather...forgot about that ridge...that is building as well...thats why its gonna be so warm up north...

#31 Postby **skysummit** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 4:05 pm

Yea....I forgot about that ridge too. Maybe the other models are picking up on that trough that's coming in from the midwest, but not picking up on the ridge behind it? Maybe that's why all the latest UKMET models with the exception of the last one have been a little curvy.

#32 Postby **deltadog03** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 4:06 pm

the shortwave over texas now is lifting out and weaking...that shouldnt have any effect on dennis

12z UKMET NOLA Again

Who is online