http://www.eglin.af.mil/weather/current ... update.htm
The 0900 CDT conference call with the National Hurricane Center did not yield good news. The official forecast track coming out at 1000 CDT shifts the 72 hour point of Dennis eastward to the waters off the Florida Panhandle in W-151. Landfall is expected late in the afternoon Sunday at Pensacola. Computer model guidance so far with this storm has been dead on, both in terms of track and intensity, so the credibility of them is increasing. The storm is intensifying as forecast with the central pressure now down to 968 millibars and dropping. As it passes over Cuba, it will weaken briefly, but then as it emerges into the Gulf, west of the Florida Keys, where the waters are around 87 degrees, and upper level conditions are expected to be ideal for strengthening, it should become at least a Category Three storm. Current NHC forecasts have it making landfall with sustained winds of 105 knots and gusts to 130 knots. We will be in the area of hurricane force winds to the right of the eye if it makes landfall just to our west as is now forecast. This would also create some very high storm surge values along the barrier islands and areas adjacent to Choctawhatchee Bay.
If the storm follows the course shown below, it would have the most impact of any storm locally since Eloise in 1975.
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