Solid NW movement may come to an end soon

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margaritabeach
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#21 Postby margaritabeach » Thu Jul 07, 2005 1:27 pm

CaptinCrunch wrote:
margaritabeach wrote:question: it seems that the outflow to the North is still expaning to the North nicely. Would it not start to flatten if it was feeling the effects of the ridge?


Not at this time, it's still to far to the S and moving to the NW soon to be WNW.


thanks for the reply. One more question. Would you expect to see the ourflow boundries to the North and NorthWest flatten before it effects the core of the storm?
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#22 Postby Steve H. » Thu Jul 07, 2005 1:30 pm

I disagree totally with this thinking. The reason for the NW movement is that Dennis has reached the western extent of the subtropical ridge. If anything he will begin to turn more northerly after passing Cuba, not westerly.
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#23 Postby rtd2 » Thu Jul 07, 2005 1:31 pm

Steve H. wrote:I disagree totally with this thinking. The reason for the NW movement is that Dennis has reached the western extent of the subtropical ridge. If anything he will begin to turn more northerly after passing Cuba, not westerly.




:?: HOW http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12
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#24 Postby skysummit » Thu Jul 07, 2005 1:32 pm

Steve H. wrote:I disagree totally with this thinking. The reason for the NW movement is that Dennis has reached the western extent of the subtropical ridge. If anything he will begin to turn more northerly after passing Cuba, not westerly.


Do you think the ridge is going to stay in the exact same place over the next 4 days?
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#25 Postby dwg71 » Thu Jul 07, 2005 1:32 pm

no it will retreat NE...
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#26 Postby LAwxrgal » Thu Jul 07, 2005 1:33 pm

dwg71 wrote:no it will retreat NE...


Oh how I wish it would... and go back to sea and not hurt anyone.
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#27 Postby dwg71 » Thu Jul 07, 2005 1:34 pm

LAwxrgal wrote:
dwg71 wrote:no it will retreat NE...


Oh how I wish it would... and go back to sea and not hurt anyone.


The high pressure ridge over FL, not Dennis....
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#28 Postby chris_fit » Thu Jul 07, 2005 1:34 pm

LAwxrgal wrote:
dwg71 wrote:no it will retreat NE...


Oh how I wish it would... and go back to sea and not hurt anyone.


The Ridge will retreat NE, he was saying, not the hurricane.

Ridge retreating=great FL threat.
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#29 Postby LAwxrgal » Thu Jul 07, 2005 1:34 pm

dwg71 wrote:
LAwxrgal wrote:
dwg71 wrote:no it will retreat NE...


Oh how I wish it would... and go back to sea and not hurt anyone.


The high pressure ridge over FL, not Dennis....


Oops.... :lol: :oops:
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#30 Postby ALhurricane » Thu Jul 07, 2005 1:37 pm

I am simply throwing out a scenario based on interpretation of real time water vapor imagery... no model guidance here.
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#31 Postby Rainband » Thu Jul 07, 2005 1:38 pm

Steve H. wrote:I disagree totally with this thinking. The reason for the NW movement is that Dennis has reached the western extent of the subtropical ridge. If anything he will begin to turn more northerly after passing Cuba, not westerly.
thats what the tampa discussion says as well. the ridge is retreating.
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#32 Postby AL Chili Pepper » Thu Jul 07, 2005 1:41 pm

I agree that it looks like Dennis will resume WNW very soon.
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#33 Postby dhweather » Thu Jul 07, 2005 1:46 pm

ALhurricane wrote:I am simply throwing out a scenario based on interpretation of real time water vapor imagery... no model guidance here.


And I agree with you on this. Sometimes the NHC gets caught up a little
too much in the models and do not "stick their heads outside the window".

Water vapor images show the ridge sitting just east of Jacksonville and
it does not appear to be moving.
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#34 Postby loon » Thu Jul 07, 2005 1:50 pm

This will be another "wait 12 hrs, then look" type of situation. I might just do that..heh. (yeah, I know, I wont, but I can dream can't I)
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#35 Postby skysummit » Thu Jul 07, 2005 1:53 pm

What ever the case, if he doesn't change direction soon in one way or another, those mountains will eat 'em up.
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#36 Postby Ixolib » Thu Jul 07, 2005 2:04 pm

loon wrote:This will be another "wait 12 hrs, then look" type of situation. I might just do that..heh. (yeah, I know, I wont, but I can dream can't I)


:lol: :lol:
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#37 Postby shortwave » Thu Jul 07, 2005 2:25 pm

You will see the ridge sitting to the north of Dennis. See how the flow is moving straight from east to west? It is going to be hard for Dennis to continue moving due NW. Therefore I expect more of a WNW heading to commence at some point later today which will take Dennis toward the western end of Cuba (a little further west than the NHC track).

Agree with that. very obvious in wv imagery.
in visible you can see the movement really well with this link..its to nice not to share..its a big file be patient
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... st_full+12
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#38 Postby jdray » Thu Jul 07, 2005 2:27 pm

dhweather wrote:
ALhurricane wrote:I am simply throwing out a scenario based on interpretation of real time water vapor imagery... no model guidance here.


And I agree with you on this. Sometimes the NHC gets caught up a little
too much in the models and do not "stick their heads outside the window".

Water vapor images show the ridge sitting just east of Jacksonville and
it does not appear to be moving.


We have some good cloud cover moving in. Was beautiful yesterday (albeit hotter than down below).
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#39 Postby feederband » Thu Jul 07, 2005 2:28 pm

skysummit wrote:What ever the case, if he doesn't change direction soon in one way or another, those mountains will eat 'em up.


Thats what I'm thinking...Cuba might be a bigger part of the picture than we thought...
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NW quadrant starting to flatten out?

#40 Postby Weatherboy1 » Thu Jul 07, 2005 2:33 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT2/IR4/20.jpg

Is it just me, or is the NW quadrant of Dennis starting to flatten out a bit on an axis oriented SW to NE. My GUESS is that this is because Dennis is getting closer and closer to that trough in the Gulf. Am I right? Wrong? Anyone? Bueller? Bueller? :)

P.S. if that is the case and IF the trough hangs around longer than currently forecast, that would tend to curve Dennis earlier, in my opinion.
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