Underestimating the Ridge

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Rainband

#61 Postby Rainband » Thu Jul 07, 2005 1:36 pm

I agree. I have to go to work till 2am. :( My friend lives in IRB :P
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TreasureIslandFLGal
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#62 Postby TreasureIslandFLGal » Thu Jul 07, 2005 1:47 pm

Hi neighbors. :D
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#63 Postby clfenwi » Thu Jul 07, 2005 1:48 pm

Kevin_Cho wrote:I don't understand why there are Tropical Storm watches for Miami-Dade County. The Tropical Storm watches for Collier and Mainland Monroe counties is understandible, and I actually think they should include Lee county as well..but for Miami-Dade...I don't know why. There are what, over a million people in Miami-Dade, and about 850,000 in Lee/Collier counties, why scare the million on the east coast and be conservative and wait until later to see if one is needed for Miami-Dade....

Kevin Cho - East Naples, FL
Junior: Naples High School


Well CPA for Miami on the current forecast track is 183 nautical miles in ~ 36 hours. With the tropical storm windfield forecast to be 140 nm at that time, it wouldn't take much of a rightward curve to bring Miami into the TS field. I think it is prudent to alert people to that possibility. I am not sure that doing so 'scares' people. It's not like it is a hurricane warning...
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#64 Postby deltadog03 » Thu Jul 07, 2005 1:50 pm

ok, someone said something about the WV.....people look at it...everything north of the system is moving to the WEST....RIDGE is BUILDING
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#65 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Jul 07, 2005 1:53 pm

i find it hard to believe it will continue a NW track, its very close to feeling the ridge to the north, how could it just bust through that?, i think it will move back to the wnw soon, at least in the short term
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#66 Postby Canelaw99 » Thu Jul 07, 2005 1:54 pm

deltadog03 wrote:ok, someone said something about the WV.....people look at it...everything north of the system is moving to the WEST....RIDGE is BUILDING



But, according to the National Weather Service out of Tampa, the ridge is RETREATING. I have to go with the pros on this one, and believe that it is retreating, but that's just me :wink:
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#67 Postby TreasureIslandFLGal » Thu Jul 07, 2005 1:55 pm

don't really big strong storms tend to make their own direction decisions? I seem to remember some strong ones in the past suprising Mets because they seemed to be controlling their own stirring flows, whether ridges were there or not, like they pushed them or something.
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#68 Postby deltadog03 » Thu Jul 07, 2005 1:57 pm

i don't know how they can say that...its very clear and evident that its building...take a look at the water vapor or the vis over florida and cuba...clouds are moving WEST...if the ridge was retreating then they would not be doing that... :lol:
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#69 Postby tim_in_ga » Thu Jul 07, 2005 1:57 pm

Latest surface analysis on Intellicast seems to show a ridge now extending over Florida and westward halfway across the GOM.
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#70 Postby chris_fit » Thu Jul 07, 2005 1:59 pm

tim_in_ga wrote:Latest surface analysis on Intellicast seems to show a ridge now extending over Florida and westward halfway across the GOM.


Anything at the surface does not effect the path of a hurricane.
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#71 Postby HollynLA » Thu Jul 07, 2005 2:02 pm

i don't know how they can say that...its very clear and evident that its building...take a look at the water vapor or the vis over florida and cuba...clouds are moving WEST...if the ridge was retreating then they would not be doing that...


Anything can happen in Florida! :hehe:
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#72 Postby CalmBeforeStorm » Thu Jul 07, 2005 2:02 pm

tim_in_ga wrote:Latest surface analysis on Intellicast seems to show a ridge now extending over Florida and westward halfway across the GOM.


~~~~~~~~~~~~
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... PE=Animate

But look at the high move out to the NE in 24 hours.
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#73 Postby deltadog03 » Thu Jul 07, 2005 2:03 pm

depends on what model you are going to look at
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#74 Postby HouTXmetro » Thu Jul 07, 2005 2:23 pm

I see a ridge is trying to build in from the west and bridge with the FLA ridge. I doubt it makes it in time to influence Dennis.
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