TAMPA NWS Discussion this afternoon - interesting

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

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FXUS62 KTBW 071818 CCA
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
220 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2005

...EFFECTS FROM DENNIS BEGINNING BY LATE FRIDAY...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SAT)...RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT TO THE
NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT AS DENNIS CONTINUES TO MOVE NW TOWARD CUBA.
CURRENT NHC TRACK (11AM ADV) SHOWS DENNIS EMERGING OFF THE N COAST
OF CUBA FRIDAY EVENING...THEN MOVING NNW FRIDAY NIGHT TO A POSITION
WELL OFFSHORE SW OF FMY BY SAT MORNING. CURRENT NHC WIND GUIDANCE
SHOWS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS BRUSHING THE LEE AND CHARLOTTE
CO COAST AROUND 8 AM SAT. THIS TRACK THEN CONTINUES TO MOVE DENNIS
NNW TO A POSITION WELL OFFSHORE WEST OF TAMPA BAY BY MIDNIGHT EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. DURING THIS TIME...THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BRUSH IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCATIONS FIRST FROM FORT MYERS SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN NORTHWARD TO TARPON SPRINGS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IN THIS CASE...CURRENT TRACK SHOWS THE STRONGEST WINDS
STAYING WELL OFFSHORE. WORTH NOTING IS THAT PAST FEW MODEL CYCLES
HAVE BEEN SHIFTING SLIGHTLY EASTWARD EACH RUN. IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES...THE AREAS TO BE AFFECTED BY TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WOULD SHIFT INLAND AND WOULD AFFECT MORE OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
DENNIS SHOULD BEGIN MOVING NNW AWAY FROM OUR COASTAL WATERS BY
AFTERNOON SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH THE
INITIAL OUTER BANDS AFFECTING OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON FRI. IT WILL BECOME BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOON
FRI...THEN WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE FRI NIGHT. A MORE SIGNIF
CONCERN WILL BE THE RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IN THESE OUTER BANDS
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS THE STORM MOVES NNW OFFSHORE OF OUR COAST.
LOOKS LIKE THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST RAINS WILL BE DURING THE DAY SAT.
CURRENT HPC GUID SHOWS HEAVIEST RAINFALL STAYING OFFSHORE...WITH
GENERALLY 3-4 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA.
HOWEVER IF THE TRACK CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST OR IF THE STORM BECOMES
MORE LOPSIDED TO THE EAST SIDE...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL INCREASE.
FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FROM 8 AM SATURDAY UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY.

OVERALL...BASED ON STORM EXPECTATIONS AT THIS POINT...RESIDENTS
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR GUSTY WINDS (ESP NEAR THE COAST) PERHAPS TO
TROPICAL STORM FORCE...ISOLATED TORNADOES...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
WITH EACH BAND...AND COASTAL TIDES ABOUT 3-4FT ABOVE NORMAL...ALL
STARTING LATE FRIDAY...THROUGH SATURDAY...AND CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVING ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (SAT NIGHT-WED)...TROPICAL CYCLONE DENNIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE WEEKEND UNTIL MONDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY MAINLY FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST ON
SUNDAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO.

LARGE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED ON THE WATERS WEST OF FL BUILDING TO 10-12
FT ALONG WITH 30 TO 35 KT WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND SUBSIDING BY SUNDAY LATE IN THE EVENING. WITH ALL THIS
WEATHER ACTIVITY AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWERED A
DEGREE OR TWO FOR SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN IMPROVING ON MONDAY AS A STRONG RIDGE RETURNS
TO THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH AN AXIS RIDGE BASICALLY RIGHT OVER CENTRAL
FL. ONLY CONCERN IS THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES
NEXT WEEK.

FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE DENNIS PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST BULLETINS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...ON
THE WEB AT http://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV...FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS AND SEAS REACHING SCA CRITERIA SOUTH OF TAMPA
BAY BY EVENING. CERTAINLY BY SATURDAY MORNING OUR COASTAL WATERS
WILL BE EXPERIENCING AT LEAST TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITH SEAS
12-16+ FEET...AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON SUN...S-SW WINDS AOA
20KT WITH STRONGER GUSTS AS DENNIS PULLS AWAY AND DRIER AIR WRAPS IN
BEHIND. CONDITIONS WILL FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA DURING THE DAY
MONDAY WITH FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MIDWEEK.
REGARDING TIDE LEVEL AND SURF WITH DENNIS...HIGH SURF CONDITIONS AND
TIDE LEVELS AROUND 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL EXPECTED WITH CURRENT TRACK.
WORST CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DENNIS PASSES BY
TO OUR WEST AND WINDS BECOME MORE ONSHORE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HEAVY RAINS WITH DENNIS WILL PRECLUDE ANY FIRE WX
CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 80 89 79 86 / 10 50 60 70
FMY 79 89 78 86 / 20 60 60 70
GIF 78 90 78 86 / 20 50 60 70
SRQ 78 89 80 86 / 10 50 60 70
BKV 76 92 78 88 / 10 40 50 70

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
...FLOOD WATCH 8 AM SATURDAY UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY ENTIRE CWA.
...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH 8 AM SATURDAY UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY ENTIRE TBW
COASTLINE.

$$

SHORT TERM...PETRO
LONG TERM....REYNES