Dennis Advisorys
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Brent
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Hurricane Dennis Advisory Number 12
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on July 07, 2005
...Hurricane Watch for the Florida Keys...tropical storm watch for
the southern Florida Peninsula...
At 11 am EDT...1500z...the government of Cuba has extended the
hurricane watches and warnings westward. A Hurricane Warning is now
in effect for The Provinces of Matanzas...Villa Clara...
Cienfuegos...Sancti Spiritus...Ciego de Avila...Camaguey...Las
Tunas...Granma...Santiago de Cuba...and Guantanamo. A Hurricane
Watch is now in effect for the remaining provinces of Cuba
including the Isle of Youth...Pinar del Rio...la Habana...Ciudad de
la Habana...and Holguin.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
At 11 am EDT...a Hurricane Watch is issued for all of the Florida
Keys and Florida Bay. Also at 11 am EDT...a tropical storm watch
is issued for all of the southern Florida Peninsula from Golden
Beach southward on the East Coast and south of Bonita Beach on the
West Coast.
A hurricane or tropical storm watch means that hurricane or tropical
storm conditions...respectively...are possible within the watch
area...generally within 36 hours.
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the southwestern peninsula
of Haiti from the Dominican Republic border westward...all of
Jamaica...and all of the Cayman Islands.
Interests in the central and western Caribbean Sea should monitor
the progress of this system.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 11 am EDT...1500z...the center of Hurricane Dennis was located
near latitude 18.0 north... longitude 75.6 west or about 80
miles... 125 km... east of Kingston Jamaica and about 155 miles...
250 km...south of Guantanamo Cuba.
Dennis is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph...20 km/hr...and
this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.
On this track the center will be passing very near Jamaica this
afternoon and evening.
Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph...165 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Dennis is a category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale. Some strengthening is forecast...and Dennis could become a
major hurricane within the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 45 miles... 75 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 140 miles...220 km.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb...28.59 inches.
Dennis is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to
10 inches over southern Hispaniola...Jamaica...Cuba...and
the Cayman Islands. Isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are
possible over the mountainous terrain of Jamaica. These rains
could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
Storm surge flooding of 5 to 7 feet above normal tide levels...
along with large and dangerous battering waves...are likely in
areas of onshore winds near the center. A much larger storm surge
of 12 to 14 feet is possible along the southern coast of Cuba from
Camaguey westward.
Repeating the 11 am EDT position...18.0 N... 75.6 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds...105 mph.
Minimum central pressure... 968 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 2 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 PM
EDT.
Forecaster Pasch/Knabb
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on July 07, 2005
...Hurricane Watch for the Florida Keys...tropical storm watch for
the southern Florida Peninsula...
At 11 am EDT...1500z...the government of Cuba has extended the
hurricane watches and warnings westward. A Hurricane Warning is now
in effect for The Provinces of Matanzas...Villa Clara...
Cienfuegos...Sancti Spiritus...Ciego de Avila...Camaguey...Las
Tunas...Granma...Santiago de Cuba...and Guantanamo. A Hurricane
Watch is now in effect for the remaining provinces of Cuba
including the Isle of Youth...Pinar del Rio...la Habana...Ciudad de
la Habana...and Holguin.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
At 11 am EDT...a Hurricane Watch is issued for all of the Florida
Keys and Florida Bay. Also at 11 am EDT...a tropical storm watch
is issued for all of the southern Florida Peninsula from Golden
Beach southward on the East Coast and south of Bonita Beach on the
West Coast.
A hurricane or tropical storm watch means that hurricane or tropical
storm conditions...respectively...are possible within the watch
area...generally within 36 hours.
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the southwestern peninsula
of Haiti from the Dominican Republic border westward...all of
Jamaica...and all of the Cayman Islands.
Interests in the central and western Caribbean Sea should monitor
the progress of this system.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 11 am EDT...1500z...the center of Hurricane Dennis was located
near latitude 18.0 north... longitude 75.6 west or about 80
miles... 125 km... east of Kingston Jamaica and about 155 miles...
250 km...south of Guantanamo Cuba.
Dennis is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph...20 km/hr...and
this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.
On this track the center will be passing very near Jamaica this
afternoon and evening.
Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph...165 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Dennis is a category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale. Some strengthening is forecast...and Dennis could become a
major hurricane within the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 45 miles... 75 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 140 miles...220 km.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb...28.59 inches.
Dennis is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to
10 inches over southern Hispaniola...Jamaica...Cuba...and
the Cayman Islands. Isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are
possible over the mountainous terrain of Jamaica. These rains
could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
Storm surge flooding of 5 to 7 feet above normal tide levels...
along with large and dangerous battering waves...are likely in
areas of onshore winds near the center. A much larger storm surge
of 12 to 14 feet is possible along the southern coast of Cuba from
Camaguey westward.
Repeating the 11 am EDT position...18.0 N... 75.6 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds...105 mph.
Minimum central pressure... 968 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 2 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 PM
EDT.
Forecaster Pasch/Knabb
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#neversummer
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cycloneye
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TCDAT4
HURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU JUL 07 2005
FIXES FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE INDICATE THAT THE
MOTION HAS BEEN MORE NORTHWESTWARD THAN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF DENNIS IS APPARENTLY WEAKER
THAN EARLIER PREDICTED. THIS MAY IN PART BE A RESULT OF ADDITIONAL
STEERING FLOW INFORMATION OBTAINED FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET
SURVEILLANCE MISSION LAST NIGHT. CONSEQUENTLY...SOME OF THE TRACK
GUIDANCE...IN PARTICULAR THE GFDL AND GFS MODELS...HAVE SHIFTED TO
THE RIGHT OF THEIR EARLIER SOLUTIONS. THIS NECESSITATES AN
EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK. ADDITIONALLY...THE
AIRCRAFT DATA SHOW THAT DENNIS HAS STRENGTHENED AND THAT THE WIND
FIELD HAS EXPANDED...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHEAST. THE NEW TRACK
AND WIND FIELD FORECAST REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF WATCHES FOR
EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA AT THIS TIME.
RECON FOUND A RATHER LARGE AREA OF WINDS NEAR 100 KT AT THE 700 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL. THIS SUPPORTS A CURRENT INTENSITY OF ABOUT 90 KT.
THE CLOUD PATTERN IS WELL-ORGANIZED AND THE EYE IS STARTING TO
BECOME APPARENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS DENNIS BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN
24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE ONLY OBVIOUS POTENTIAL HINDRANCE TO
CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS THE INTERACTION WITH THE LANDMASS OF
CUBA. SINCE THE MAGNITUDE OF THE EFFECT OF LAND DEPENDS ON THE
DETAILS OF THE TRACK...THE FORECAST IS A BLEND OF BOTH SHIPS AND
DECAY SHIPS. HOWEVER...IF DENNIS REMAINS MOSTLY OVER WATER IT
COULD EASILY STRENGTHEN MORE THAN INDICATED HERE.
HURRICANE WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR CUBA HAVE BEEN EXTENDED WESTWARD.
FORECASTER PASCH/KNABB
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 07/1500Z 18.0N 75.6W 90 KT
12HR VT 08/0000Z 19.3N 77.3W 95 KT
24HR VT 08/1200Z 21.3N 79.8W 100 KT
36HR VT 09/0000Z 22.8N 81.8W 90 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 09/1200Z 24.7N 83.5W 105 KT
72HR VT 10/1200Z 28.7N 86.2W 105 KT
96HR VT 11/1200Z 33.5N 88.5W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 12/1200Z 37.5N 90.0W 20 KT...INLAND
HURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU JUL 07 2005
FIXES FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE INDICATE THAT THE
MOTION HAS BEEN MORE NORTHWESTWARD THAN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF DENNIS IS APPARENTLY WEAKER
THAN EARLIER PREDICTED. THIS MAY IN PART BE A RESULT OF ADDITIONAL
STEERING FLOW INFORMATION OBTAINED FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET
SURVEILLANCE MISSION LAST NIGHT. CONSEQUENTLY...SOME OF THE TRACK
GUIDANCE...IN PARTICULAR THE GFDL AND GFS MODELS...HAVE SHIFTED TO
THE RIGHT OF THEIR EARLIER SOLUTIONS. THIS NECESSITATES AN
EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK. ADDITIONALLY...THE
AIRCRAFT DATA SHOW THAT DENNIS HAS STRENGTHENED AND THAT THE WIND
FIELD HAS EXPANDED...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHEAST. THE NEW TRACK
AND WIND FIELD FORECAST REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF WATCHES FOR
EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA AT THIS TIME.
RECON FOUND A RATHER LARGE AREA OF WINDS NEAR 100 KT AT THE 700 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL. THIS SUPPORTS A CURRENT INTENSITY OF ABOUT 90 KT.
THE CLOUD PATTERN IS WELL-ORGANIZED AND THE EYE IS STARTING TO
BECOME APPARENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS DENNIS BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN
24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE ONLY OBVIOUS POTENTIAL HINDRANCE TO
CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS THE INTERACTION WITH THE LANDMASS OF
CUBA. SINCE THE MAGNITUDE OF THE EFFECT OF LAND DEPENDS ON THE
DETAILS OF THE TRACK...THE FORECAST IS A BLEND OF BOTH SHIPS AND
DECAY SHIPS. HOWEVER...IF DENNIS REMAINS MOSTLY OVER WATER IT
COULD EASILY STRENGTHEN MORE THAN INDICATED HERE.
HURRICANE WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR CUBA HAVE BEEN EXTENDED WESTWARD.
FORECASTER PASCH/KNABB
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 07/1500Z 18.0N 75.6W 90 KT
12HR VT 08/0000Z 19.3N 77.3W 95 KT
24HR VT 08/1200Z 21.3N 79.8W 100 KT
36HR VT 09/0000Z 22.8N 81.8W 90 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 09/1200Z 24.7N 83.5W 105 KT
72HR VT 10/1200Z 28.7N 86.2W 105 KT
96HR VT 11/1200Z 33.5N 88.5W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 12/1200Z 37.5N 90.0W 20 KT...INLAND
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and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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gkrangers
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HurricaneQueen
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Brent
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- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
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HurricaneQueen wrote:Does anyone have a cone with today's date on it. Everything I find is still from the 11 a.m. advisory YESTERDAY including the one at the top of this page.
Thanks,
Lynn
(in Tropical Storm Watch Zone)
Today is Thursday... so that is current. Also this:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... 5day?large
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#neversummer
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GalvestonDuck
- Category 5
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- Location: Galveston, oh Galveston (And yeah, it's a barrier island. Wanna make something of it?)
Brent wrote:HurricaneQueen wrote:Does anyone have a cone with today's date on it. Everything I find is still from the 11 a.m. advisory YESTERDAY including the one at the top of this page.
Thanks,
Lynn
(in Tropical Storm Watch Zone)
Today is Thursday... so that is current. Also this:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... 5day?large
I can relate to her confusion. After having Monday off, it can throw a person's whole mindset about what day of the week it is.
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cycloneye
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- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
HURRICANE DENNIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT THU JUL 07 2005
...DENNIS CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...PASSING JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF
JAMAICA...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...
VILLA CLARA... CIENFUEGOS...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...
CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINING PROVINCES OF
CUBA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...
CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...AND HOLGUIN.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST AND SOUTH
OF BONITA BEACH ON THE WEST COAST.
A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA
OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD...ALL OF
JAMAICA...AND ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 76.1 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES...
105 KM... NORTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 105 MILES...
170 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.
DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL PASS NORTH OF JAMAICA LATER TODAY AND
MOVE NEAR CABO CRUZ IN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS JUST BELOW THE THRESHOLD OF
CATEGORY THREE INTENSITY ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 962 MB...28.41 INCHES.
DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...CUBA...AND
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF JAMAICA. THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE LIKELY IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER. A MUCH LARGER STORM SURGE
OF 12 TO 14 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA FROM
CAMAGUEY WESTWARD.
REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...18.6 N... 76.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 962 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM EDT.
FORECASTER PASCH/KNABB
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT THU JUL 07 2005
...DENNIS CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...PASSING JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF
JAMAICA...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...
VILLA CLARA... CIENFUEGOS...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...
CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINING PROVINCES OF
CUBA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...
CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...AND HOLGUIN.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST AND SOUTH
OF BONITA BEACH ON THE WEST COAST.
A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA
OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD...ALL OF
JAMAICA...AND ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 76.1 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES...
105 KM... NORTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 105 MILES...
170 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.
DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL PASS NORTH OF JAMAICA LATER TODAY AND
MOVE NEAR CABO CRUZ IN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS JUST BELOW THE THRESHOLD OF
CATEGORY THREE INTENSITY ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 962 MB...28.41 INCHES.
DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...CUBA...AND
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF JAMAICA. THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE LIKELY IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER. A MUCH LARGER STORM SURGE
OF 12 TO 14 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA FROM
CAMAGUEY WESTWARD.
REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...18.6 N... 76.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 962 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM EDT.
FORECASTER PASCH/KNABB
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Brent
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Cat 3 at 5pm.
Just a prediction... if the winds aren't there yet, they will be soon with the pressure fall.
Just a prediction... if the winds aren't there yet, they will be soon with the pressure fall.
Last edited by Brent on Thu Jul 07, 2005 12:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#neversummer
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HurricaneQueen
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Brent
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HurricaneQueen wrote:Help me, I am losing it? Doesn't the graph at the top say Wed. July 6, 2005 and isn't today Thursday, July 7th? We're celebrating my hubbby's b-day today so I hope I am correct!!! LOL
Lynn
It says Thursday July 7th here??? Refresh the page.
http://maps.wunderground.com/data/image ... 4_5day.gif
Direct link.
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#neversummer
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GalvestonDuck
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HurricaneQueen wrote:Help me, I am losing it? Doesn't the graph at the top say Wed. July 6, 2005 and isn't today Thursday, July 7th? We're celebrating my hubbby's b-day today so I hope I am correct!!! LOL
Lynn
*puts an ice cold washcloth on Lynn's head and props her head up on a pillow* Rest for a little while...you'll be fine soon.
Looks to me like it says "2pm EDT Thu Jul 07 2005."
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I'd like everyone to copy an image of the cone from the 2pm adv. Then tomorrow at this time, watch the cone. This is the only prediction I will make on this storms future, but I think the cone will move quite a bit west in the next 24hrs. I am stating this only by looking at past (last 24-48hr) loops and watching environment variables changing. I stand by my thoughts that the easternly shift in models was due to the GulfstreamIV data, but, hey, we shall see.
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wxwatcher91
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check out the current infrared on Dennis
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
The eye a lot more prominent in the 1745z frame. Also, the area of strong convection appears somewhat larger as well as more organized around the eye.
It could just be me, but it also looks like Dennis took a another "jog" further northward.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
The eye a lot more prominent in the 1745z frame. Also, the area of strong convection appears somewhat larger as well as more organized around the eye.
It could just be me, but it also looks like Dennis took a another "jog" further northward.
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