Looking better for New Orleans

[bfez1]

Message from one of our local mets:


Just another quick update...

Threat continues for entire Gulf Coast...but very early indications show a weaker ridge of high pressure and a more easterly landfall...thus a greater threat from Louisiana eastward to Florida.

A NOAA Gulfstream IV jet went out sampling the environment around Dennis last night. This is very valuable data that allows us to have good information about the strength of the West Atlantic high pressure we would not otherwise have. Data from this mission was fed into the computer models and that may have resulted in a shift further to the east in the projected forecast tracks. This is certainly good news for New Orleans and I am very encouraged. However, be warned things can change here, so stay up-to-date on the latest tracks.

Even though there has been a shift to the east in the models, mainly suggesting landfall now on the FL panhandle, I suggest everyone continue to make plans just in case. Three day forecasts on these things can have HUGE errors and subtle features in the upper-level flow pattern which the computers are blind to now can result in changes in the track.

With that said, I will repeat what I stated in an earlier post:

Begin making your hurricane preparations now. This includes figuring out where you would evacuate to if this storm was to come our way, and how you are going to get there. If you live on high ground (north of the I-12) and you wish to stay, make sure you have plenty of supplies. It may be a good time to make hotel reservations too if you plan to go that route when leaving. Keep up on the latest information on the storm here in our forum and on Channel 4 so that you can make informed decisions about what you will do. If it looks like this thing is coming our way and you wait for the mandatory evacuation, it could be a headache getting out again...although hopefully not as bad as Ivan.

While the overall chances of a direct hit for any one point along the Gulf coast (including New Orleans) is low (and with the new data, perhaps lower for now), it is certainly better to go to some degree of trouble to be prepared than to rush around at the last minute.

Anyway, David and I will post our thoughts at the top of this board on Dennis in the coming days and will try to do this frequently.

But again, I urge everyone to start developing a detailed plan on what you will do should the worst happen. It just makes sense to do so. Let’s hope the current trends in the models continue to steer this thing east of us!

John


John Gumm
Meteorologist
WWL-TV
1024 North Rampart Street
New Orleans, LA 70116

[bevgo]

Thanks for the post. I do hope NO is missed because my son is there and so is my house. I really hope I miss it to here in MS

[Stormcenter]

New Orleans will not be out of the woods until Dennis is making landfall.

[Opal storm]

New Orleans will not be out of the woods until Dennis is making landfall.

Yes.

Even if Dennis does make landfall in the panhandle,N.O would still be impacted.

[TS Zack]

Pensacola to New Orleans is not far at all. Plus this system is huge so Tropical Storm Conditions will be felt far away from landfall point.

[EarthStormFire]

Pensacola to New Orleans is not far at all. Plus this system is huge so Tropical Storm Conditions will be felt far away from landfall point.

Yes but Hurricane Force winds, the only winds that actually matter extend out only a few miles.

[Foladar]

Pensacola to New Orleans is not far at all. Plus this system is huge so Tropical Storm Conditions will be felt far away from landfall point.

Yes but Hurricane Force winds, the only winds that actually matter extend out only a few miles.

A few miles?
First, you say, don't evacuate, now you say it will only extend a few miles?

[Opal storm]

Pensacola to New Orleans is not far at all. Plus this system is huge so Tropical Storm Conditions will be felt far away from landfall point.

Yes but Hurricane Force winds, the only winds that actually matter extend out only a few miles.

T.S force winds can do a lot of damage.Also, the hurricane force winds extend out a lot farther than a few miles on the east and north side of the storm.

[skysummit]

Pensacola to New Orleans is not far at all. Plus this system is huge so Tropical Storm Conditions will be felt far away from landfall point.

Yes but Hurricane Force winds, the only winds that actually matter extend out only a few miles.

This has to be one of the most unknowledgable comments I have ever seen.

[cajungal]

He does not live in a hurricane prone area. And he wants to make uneducated remarks on this board.

[Steve]

I don't know if I'd call Homestead not hurricane prone (not that I agree with the comments though).

Steve

[cajungal]

I don't know if I'd call Homestead not hurricane prone (not that I agree with the comments though).

Steve

Wait, I thought he was from California? If so, oops sorry. My bad.

[jkt21787]

EarthStormFire has done nothing but make irresponsible comments from what I've seen. I hope no one is taking his advice seriously...

[Brent]

Pensacola to New Orleans is not far at all. Plus this system is huge so Tropical Storm Conditions will be felt far away from landfall point.

Yes but Hurricane Force winds, the only winds that actually matter extend out only a few miles.

With all due respect... your crazy.

[HurryKane]

EarthStormFire has done nothing but make irresponsible comments from what I've seen. I hope no one is taking his advice seriously...

Agreed.

[TSmith274]

I still don't have power, so I'm posting this at a friend's house. I'm just relieved to see these trends. I feel bad for those people east of here, namely those in coastal Alabama and the Florida panhandle. They sure don't need this after Ivan. But, it's looking like they will. Good luck to everyone over there. Cindy was a pain in the butt... still no power, lots of tree limbs and leaves to clean up. Thank god these models are moving east.

[ALhurricane]

There is NO way people in New Orleans should be letting their guard down at this point. They are still on the table as far as possibilities go.