12Z Canadian-Direct Hit on Keys/SW FL

[Vortex]

Very consistent...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... hour=036hr

[gatorcane]

[chris_fit]

Has this model ever had a run that takes it away from FL?

[jkt21787]

I can't say enough about this model.

It initialized the low at ~1004 mb!!!

[Ground_Zero_92]

Why this shift east within the last 12 hours? Did the models overestimate the ridge or are there other factors. I hope the Cuban Mountains pound the crap out of this.

[jkt21787]

Why this shift east within the last 12 hours? Did the models overestimate the ridge or are there other factors. I hope the Cuban Mountains pound the crap out of this.

This model has been showing this track for days now. IMO, its not a feasible solution.

[gatorcane]

Why this shift east within the last 12 hours? Did the models overestimate the ridge or are there other factors. I hope the Cuban Mountains pound the crap out of this.

From the 11am NHC advisory, a plane flew measured the atlantic tropospheric ridge and found it to be weaker than originally thought

[Canelaw99]

Has this model ever had a run that takes it away from FL?

No, it never has. There is debate here on the board regarding the validity of the model, but no, it has never deviated from hitting FL.

[Steve H.]

The CMC has been showing this for the last 2 days.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

"This model has been showing this track for days now. IMO, its not a feasible solution."

Problem now is that the GFS and the GFDL have both come much closer to the CMC solution.

[jkt21787]

"This model has been showing this track for days now. IMO, its not a feasible solution."

Problem now is that the GFS and the GFDL have both come much closer to the CMC solution.

GFS and GFDL show a Panhandle hit, which IS feasible at this point.

A DIRECT hit on SW FLA/Keys is not feasible.

[chris_fit]

"This model has been showing this track for days now. IMO, its not a feasible solution."

Problem now is that the GFS and the GFDL have both come much closer to the CMC solution.

GFS and GFDL show a Panhandle hit, which IS feasible at this point.

A DIRECT hit on SW FLA/Keys is not feasible.

If I recall two/three days ago this thing going north of Jamaica was not feasible, well it's going to pass well north of Jamaica, farther north than yesterdays forecast.

Everyone should be watching verrrry closely

[CalmBeforeStorm]

This model has been showing this track for days now. IMO, its not a feasible solution.
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The GFS has Dennis EXTREMELY close to Naple at 42 hours. Are you saying that it can't be off by maybe 50 miles?

[Brent]

"This model has been showing this track for days now. IMO, its not a feasible solution."

Problem now is that the GFS and the GFDL have both come much closer to the CMC solution.

GFS and GFDL show a Panhandle hit, which IS feasible at this point.

A DIRECT hit on SW FLA/Keys is not feasible.

If I recall two/three days ago this thing going north of Jamaica was not feasible, well it's going to pass well north of Jamaica, farther north than yesterdays forecast.

Everyone should be watching verrrry closely

NHC NEVER EVER EVER took it south or even over Jamaica.

I think the Lower Keys will get a scare and the Florida Peninsula will see squalls, but nothing else. MS/AL/FL Panhandle landfall.

[jkt21787]

"This model has been showing this track for days now. IMO, its not a feasible solution."

Problem now is that the GFS and the GFDL have both come much closer to the CMC solution.

GFS and GFDL show a Panhandle hit, which IS feasible at this point.

A DIRECT hit on SW FLA/Keys is not feasible.

If I recall two/three days ago this thing going north of Jamaica was not feasible, well it's going to pass well north of Jamaica, farther north than yesterdays forecast.

Everyone should be watching verrrry closely

Although I belived even last night it was going south of Jamaica, I certainly never thought it was not feasible to go north. Jamaica is a relatively small island.

[chris_fit]

"This model has been showing this track for days now. IMO, its not a feasible solution."

Problem now is that the GFS and the GFDL have both come much closer to the CMC solution.

GFS and GFDL show a Panhandle hit, which IS feasible at this point.

A DIRECT hit on SW FLA/Keys is not feasible.

If I recall two/three days ago this thing going north of Jamaica was not feasible, well it's going to pass well north of Jamaica, farther north than yesterdays forecast.

Everyone should be watching verrrry closely

NHC NEVER EVER EVER took it south or even over Jamaica.

I think the Lower Keys will get a scare and the Florida Peninsula will see squalls, but nothing else. MS/AL/FL Panhandle landfall.

NHC NEVER EVER I agree... however most people (pro and amatuer) on this board, myself included, were leaning toward it passing south of Jamaica.

[jkt21787]

This model has been showing this track for days now. IMO, its not a feasible solution.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The GFS has Dennis EXTREMELY close to Naple at 42 hours. Are you saying that it can't be off by maybe 50 miles?

Pretty much. If it does come into SW FL/KEYS I doubt its more than a cat 1. Cuba will tear it apart coming in over the area it would projected by the model.

If a pro met comes on the board and tells me that it could happen, I'll believe it. I'm just an amatuer like the majority of us. However professional opinions I have read elsewhere indicate the Canadian should not be taken seriously.

[Brent]

NHC NEVER EVER I agree... however most people (pro and amatuer) on this board, myself included, were leaning toward it passing south of Jamaica.

Don't feel bad... I did too.

But it's not off the NHC track, and the NHC has never projected anything east of a Panhandle landfall, so I don't see why that proves it's going into the Peninsula.

[Anonymous]

Haha it's funny to see who wants the landfall.

You all should change your locations to prevent me getting any more humor.

Anyways, the thing is moving NW. The ridge is weaker. Guess that "jog" I posted in "Beautiful eye" wasn't temporary.

[jkt21787]

Haha it's funny to see who wants the landfall.

You all should change your locations to prevent me getting any more humor.

Anyways, the thing is moving NW. The ridge is weaker. Guess that "jog" I posted in "Beautiful eye" wasn't temporary.

Landfall postion isn't a big deal to me, I live several hundred miles inland. However its pretty easy to see how inaccurate a model likely is when it initiializes a storm at about 40 mb too high. NAM did the same thing (at least at 0z last night) and guess what, similar landfall postion. Coicidence?