12z UKMET NOLA Again

[jkt21787]

I know UKMET seems like an outlier now, but 12z AGAIN comes back with a near Near Orleans hit from Dennis. This has had this same track for many, many model runs in a row with little change.

Does it mean anything? Who knows.

Link...
http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/uploads/post-350-1120752809.png

[smashmode]

A NOLA or Tampa/st pete hit at cat 3/4 would be catastrophic. I am hoping it hits sparsely populated land.....That would be between pensacola/tampa correct? IN terms of not much population?

[DESTRUCTION5]

Thats not the 12z...

[LAwxrgal]

Hmm. UKMET seems to be the western outlier. Most other models are pointing east of there, to Alabama/FL panhandle, and the NHC guidance is in about that region as well. But Dennis is such a big storm that a lot of people will be feeling effects from it, no matter where it actually hits.

Say one thing for the UKMET, it has been consistent.

[LilNoles2005]

it seems like the UKMET doesn't like the other models and doesn't like their company. Earlier, when the consensus was Louisiana, the UKMET showed landfall in the Florida Panhandle (Apalachicola). Now that the models have shifted eastward, it is the western outlier.

[LAwxrgal]

Thats not the 12z...

Huh?

[DESTRUCTION5]

Thats not the 12z...

Huh?

Still the 6z

[tw861]

Thats not the 12z...

Uh, yes it is look at the date and time on the top.

And it's actually a little further west than the 00z run.

"Iron models" whose solutions will rein supreme. UK vs US.

(For those of you who don't watch the Food Network that's a play off of the show Iron Chef)

[jkt21787]

Do you not see 12zJ072005? Take a closer look. Its the 12z.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Thats not the 12z...

Uh, yes it is look at the date and time on the top.

And it's actually a little further west than the 00z run.

"Iron models" whose solutions will rein supreme. UK vs US.

(For those of you who don't watch the Food Network that's a play off of the show Iron Chef)

If that is indeed the new Euro....Its lost its mind...Storm going that far west is not in the cards

[jkt21787]

Thats not the 12z...

Uh, yes it is look at the date and time on the top.

And it's actually a little further west than the 00z run.

"Iron models" whose solutions will rein supreme. UK vs US.

(For those of you who don't watch the Food Network that's a play off of the show Iron Chef)

If that is indeed the new Euro....Its lost its mind...Storm going that far west is not in the cards

UKMET outperforms a lot of the models in terms of tropical systems, its far better than the NAM and CMC which some are living by today for some reason...

A New Orleans track is still very possible and the city remains under a high threat IMO, certainly higher than the FL Peninsula.

[dhweather]

Thats not the 12z...

Uh, yes it is look at the date and time on the top.

And it's actually a little further west than the 00z run.

"Iron models" whose solutions will rein supreme. UK vs US.

(For those of you who don't watch the Food Network that's a play off of the show Iron Chef)

If that is indeed the new Euro....Its lost its mind...Storm going that far west is not in the cards

Yes it is in the cards!

I would not rule out landfall ANYWHERE in Louisiana right now.

[tw861]

Thats not the 12z...

Uh, yes it is look at the date and time on the top.

And it's actually a little further west than the 00z run.

"Iron models" whose solutions will rein supreme. UK vs US.

(For those of you who don't watch the Food Network that's a play off of the show Iron Chef)

If that is indeed the new Euro....Its lost its mind...Storm going that far west is not in the cards

Here is the loop:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

Well, maybe it's lost it's mind and maybe not. Time will tell. It's initial point looks pretty good. The 12 z GFS looks a little far north in 6 hrs vs the current Dennis position on Sat. In fact for the most part the GFS has been north of the actual track for most of the time.

I don't care to get into an argument with you Florida folks over where it's going because in the end none of us have any control over it. The UK hasn't been too bad so far and is very consistant from run to run. Hey and it's JB's model of choice so we will see.

[loon]

I think until he is in the GOM, either above Cuba or (south track) under and past cuba, this is still far out and I'm kinda surprised that today everyone is jumping on the bandwagon with the 4 and 5 day plots today when yesterday those same plots pointing over to LA were "just not going to happen". However, I would like to point out that this was the first and some second runs with the GulfstreamIV data added in, meaning whatever the atmosphere looked like LAST NIGHT, when Cindy (imho) was still in the lower part of the US (now moving NE at a pretty good clip) and highly effecting the ridge, troughs, and everything else in that area, and, as you would expect with that data, everything shifted. I'm not saying the shift isn't correct, and I'm not saying it wont stay that way, I would however like to see more runs with this new data, and hopefully they will fly IV back in tonight or tomorrow. Its been a given that Dennis will run up Cuba on one side or the other, or perhaps right through it, it was the points after Cuba that have always been up for grabs, and (again imho) still is up for grabs. Time will tell and I just feel bad for the folks in the Florida areas that Ivan already wrecked up get another dose from this storm.

cheers
loon

[skysummit]

Thats not the 12z...

Uh, yes it is look at the date and time on the top.

And it's actually a little further west than the 00z run.

"Iron models" whose solutions will rein supreme. UK vs US.

(For those of you who don't watch the Food Network that's a play off of the show Iron Chef)

If that is indeed the new Euro....Its lost its mind...Storm going that far west is not in the cards

UKMET outperforms a lot of the models in terms of tropical systems, its far better than the NAM and CMC which some are living by today for some reason...

A New Orleans track is still very possible and the city remains under a high threat IMO, certainly higher than the FL Peninsula.

I don't think that's going to happen, but that doesn't mean I'm taking it lightly. So aren'tt the local officials. They're still talking about starting evacuations as early as tommorrow (50 hours prior to TS winds reaching the Mouth of the Miss. Riv.) I think they should wait a while longer, but that's the new contraflow plan.

[Wthrman13]

Thats not the 12z...

Uh, yes it is look at the date and time on the top.

And it's actually a little further west than the 00z run.

"Iron models" whose solutions will rein supreme. UK vs US.

(For those of you who don't watch the Food Network that's a play off of the show Iron Chef)

If that is indeed the new Euro....Its lost its mind...Storm going that far west is not in the cards

That's the UKMET model, a completely different model from the ECMWF (or Euro). It's run by the UK met office, while ECMWF is run by, well, the ECMWF (European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting).

[cajungal]

Just went to wunderground. It shifted west again. Now, got it coming at a weird angle over Terrebonne Parish. Not that I think that will happen. But, it has been the most consistent of the models. When Dennis gets in the gulf, we will know more about what he will do. The models will keep deverging back and forth until then.

[Brent]

Well... it's consistent.

I think it's too far west though(yesterday I liked the track), but I don't know. I still think a SE LA hit is more likely than a SW FL landfall.

[jasons2k]

I've been riding the UKMET for awhile on this one.

I have a post on the landfall thread - I still think New Iberia to Pascagoula and I think the UKMET is handling system well.

[Lindaloo]

Hi jschlitz... please leave Pascagoula out of it. Thanks.