12:00z Model Guidance,Grafic=A Shift east,Ship 113 kts

[Scorpion]

Interesting. Making it more likely I might get TS winds.

[chris_fit]

The CMC (you can call it Bunk if you want) and the NOGAPS have really been the ones with the same paths model after model.


The others are west then right quite a bit.

Good observation.. lets hope they are the ones that are wrong and wrong over again too

[caneman]

its a very small right shift. 40 miles is NOT even close to a large shift

Downstream it can have huge implications though. Clearly slowed and moving NW. The right models seems to be correct so far.

[EarthStormFire]

The CMC (you can call it Bunk if you want) and the NOGAPS have really been the ones with the same paths model after model.


The others are west then right quite a bit.

The UKMET model seems to be very consistant in its prediction of a NOLA landing.

[chris_fit]

The CMC (you can call it Bunk if you want) and the NOGAPS have really been the ones with the same paths model after model.


The others are west then right quite a bit.

The UKMET model seems to be very consistant in its prediction of a NOLA landing.

Negative, I believe only the last two runs it's been in the NO area... all others have taken it to the panhandle of FL

[jkt21787]

The CMC (you can call it Bunk if you want) and the NOGAPS have really been the ones with the same paths model after model.


The others are west then right quite a bit.

The UKMET model seems to be very consistant in its prediction of a NOLA landing.

Negative, I believe only the last two runs it's been in the NO area... all others have taken it to the panhandle of FL

No, UKMET has been near N.O. for most every run in the last 24-48 hours (there may be one or two runs where it was off a bit)

[chris_fit]

The CMC (you can call it Bunk if you want) and the NOGAPS have really been the ones with the same paths model after model.


The others are west then right quite a bit.

The UKMET model seems to be very consistant in its prediction of a NOLA landing.

Negative, I believe only the last two runs it's been in the NO area... all others have taken it to the panhandle of FL

No, UKMET has been near N.O. for most every run in the last 24-48 hours (there may be one or two runs where it was off a bit)

Coulda sworn it was off to the east of LA before yesterday... Perhaps I'm wrong, too many models

[jkt21787]

The CMC (you can call it Bunk if you want) and the NOGAPS have really been the ones with the same paths model after model.


The others are west then right quite a bit.

The UKMET model seems to be very consistant in its prediction of a NOLA landing.

Negative, I believe only the last two runs it's been in the NO area... all others have taken it to the panhandle of FL

No, UKMET has been near N.O. for most every run in the last 24-48 hours (there may be one or two runs where it was off a bit)

Coulda sworn it was off to the east of LA before yesterday... Perhaps I'm wrong, too many models

WAY too many models. I believe one run was going for Mobile Yesterday.