Joe thinks this system is a cross between Hurricane Betsy and 1947. He claims the GFS Suite (incl. GFDL) have the model initialized wrong and about 70 miles too far north. Obviously if he verifies from this far out, it's the disaster situation for New Orleans (or whatever we can get from a Cat 3). S MS would find themselves close or in the NE quadrant.
Personally, I'm liking a compromise between Joe B. and the Mobile models and am coming around to thinking a hit between Baldwin Co. and Plaquemines Parish, LA might be reasonable. Of course this is all based on where Dennis crosses Cuba. Joe says he might skirt north of Jamaica but should stay in the water. That's questionable at this time, but it might verify as centers usually don't like to hit Jamaica. Personally, I'd like JB's take a little more if Dennis traversed south of Jamaica than if it skirts the north coast. But I don't want to discount him or anyone else at this point because it's way too early. If held at gunpoint, I'd probably go with a Harrison or Jackson Co. landfall at this point, but since no one's got a gun to my head, I'm not making any call whatsoever.
Steve
Troubling Joe B. video for SE LA/S MS this morning...
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Sounds like as good a call as any. I certainly wouldnt rule out what JB says, he knows his stuff. But looking at all the model trends and flip flops, the area that seems to always be in the middle of these flops is an area from Biloxi to about Pensacola. A few days ago I said I thought landfall would be from New Orleans to Applachicola. I think I may narrow that down tonight after the 12z models.
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Stormcenter
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DESTRUCTION5
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FL Handle storm IMO...Just hope Cuba Beats the hell out of him...Bastardi dreams of that NO hit all the time...I used to love him but he has been a bit off target the past 2 years..JLast year Jeanne was 3 hrs from landfall and he still insisted north of Melbourne...Im mean please...I put much more faith in most of this board..
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>>Hmmm...making a landfall guess 3 days out to hit a specific COUNTY...thats pretty good!
LOL. Assuming you weren't being sarcastic there, what I said was:
If held at gunpoint, I'd probably go with a Harrison or Jackson Co. landfall at this point, but since no one's got a gun to my head, I'm not making any call whatsoever.
This means that I'm not going on record with anything until Cuba comes into play. That's a bigger deal for WNW/NW moving storms coming up to the Gulf Coast. What I did for the if a gun was to my head scenario is split the difference between extreme SE LA and eastern Alabama. If you don't know which counties/parishes are which, Plaquemines Parish, LA is the toe of Louisiana (runs down to the Mouth of the Mississippi River) and Baldwin County Alabama is everything east of Mobile Bay. I right-biased it to the South Central/South Eastern Mississippi Counties. So in succession running up the coast, you have Plaquemines Parish, LA, north of that is St. Bernard Parish, LA, north of that is St. Tammany Parish, LA, east of that is Hancock County MS, Harrison County, Jackson County, Mobile County AL, Baldwin County, AL.
This does not in any way shape or form mean that I think coastal Mississippi is definitely going to get hit. It's too far out to guess not only where but what is going to be hitting. It's all speculation at this point - Joe B, Model Outputs, Amateurs and Pro Mets included.
Steve
LOL. Assuming you weren't being sarcastic there, what I said was:
If held at gunpoint, I'd probably go with a Harrison or Jackson Co. landfall at this point, but since no one's got a gun to my head, I'm not making any call whatsoever.
This means that I'm not going on record with anything until Cuba comes into play. That's a bigger deal for WNW/NW moving storms coming up to the Gulf Coast. What I did for the if a gun was to my head scenario is split the difference between extreme SE LA and eastern Alabama. If you don't know which counties/parishes are which, Plaquemines Parish, LA is the toe of Louisiana (runs down to the Mouth of the Mississippi River) and Baldwin County Alabama is everything east of Mobile Bay. I right-biased it to the South Central/South Eastern Mississippi Counties. So in succession running up the coast, you have Plaquemines Parish, LA, north of that is St. Bernard Parish, LA, north of that is St. Tammany Parish, LA, east of that is Hancock County MS, Harrison County, Jackson County, Mobile County AL, Baldwin County, AL.
This does not in any way shape or form mean that I think coastal Mississippi is definitely going to get hit. It's too far out to guess not only where but what is going to be hitting. It's all speculation at this point - Joe B, Model Outputs, Amateurs and Pro Mets included.
Steve
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Stormcenter
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LOL BC. But I NEVER EVER call for a hit in Louisiana unless it's pretty obvious that's what's going to happen. It's far from obvious to me. As I said in another thread last night, I spent my youth waiting for storms that always turned away and hit someone else. So the last thing I'd ever do (besides -removed-) is jinx any shot I've got at a storm. I figured in that 8 county spread, I'd go with 5 and 6 for the "gun to my head scenario." But I'd like to reiterate that I really don't have a call with this one. I would have expected the Eastern Gulf so that's where my head was at coming into the whole deal. But sometimes I just don't have a handle or take on the evolving dynamics. This is one of those times. I could see an Apalachacola to maybe Mouth of the River scenario, but I really hope our good friends in Baldwin Co. and Escambia & Santa Rosa Counties don't have to deal with this kind of situation all over again. If I could wishcast, I'd wishcast it east or west of those three areas.
Steve
Steve
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