12:00z Model Guidance,Grafic=A Shift east,Ship 113 kts

[cycloneye]

[/img] NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE DENNIS (AL042005) ON 20050707 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050707 1200 050708 0000 050708 1200 050709 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.6N 75.0W 19.3N 77.2W 21.0N 79.3W 22.7N 81.2W
BAMM 17.6N 75.0W 19.7N 77.3W 21.6N 79.6W 23.3N 81.6W
A98E 17.6N 75.0W 19.1N 77.0W 20.8N 78.8W 22.9N 80.5W
LBAR 17.6N 75.0W 19.2N 77.3W 20.9N 79.5W 22.6N 81.3W
SHIP 90KTS 97KTS 104KTS 111KTS
DSHP 90KTS 97KTS 104KTS 84KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050709 1200 050710 1200 050711 1200 050712 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 24.4N 82.7W 28.7N 85.4W 34.1N 87.2W 37.8N 87.6W
BAMM 25.0N 83.4W 28.5N 86.4W 32.4N 87.9W 36.0N 87.2W
A98E 25.5N 82.0W 29.7N 84.3W 34.9N 85.3W 36.8N 85.4W
LBAR 24.3N 82.8W 27.4N 85.0W 31.2N 86.3W 35.6N 84.9W
SHIP 113KTS 107KTS 91KTS 66KTS
DSHP 94KTS 88KTS 39KTS 28KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.6N LONCUR = 75.0W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 16.3N LONM12 = 73.1W DIRM12 = 296DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 15.1N LONM24 = 70.9W
WNDCUR = 90KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 75KT
CENPRS = 968MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 90NM RD34SW = 75NM RD34NW = 75NM

[chris_fit]

So not cool

[EarthStormFire]

Guess this means NOLA is now safe. UKMET is the lone outlier in its insistance that NOLA will be pumeled.

[tampastorm]

now safe?! Are being serious, or just making fun how fast the models change?

[HollynLA]

Guess this means NOLA is now safe

You're kidding right? Never make a comment like that when we're still 4 days out, there are people that will take it seriously. Models are shifting like they always do and no one, especially NOLA, should be considered "safe". No place on the northern gulf coast is able to classified as safe yet.

[jkt21787]

Guess this means NOLA is now safe. UKMET is the lone outlier in its insistance that NOLA will be pumeled.

You are crazy for thinking NOLA is safe. This is a change that is expected and not a surprise, the models will likely shift back west.

[WeatherEmperor]

Im just waiting to hear what the NHC has to say about this apparent slightly easterly trend.

<RICKY>

[Ivanhater]

exactly, they will be back and forth almost every, not a good idea to think someone is safe on one run

[mobilebay]

Guess this means NOLA is now safe. UKMET is the lone outlier in its insistance that NOLA will be pumeled.

You are crazy for thinking NOLA is safe. This is a change that is expected and not a surprise, the models will likely shift back west.

I agree. Those models are all off the GFS (except UKMET), really only one model shifted East, the GFS. wait until 12 Z run folks. Those models are using data from 7PM last night.

[cycloneye]

To far away to make a bold statement about ANY area in the Gulf coast even Texas because you never know what factors can make this giant cyclone move as it can create it's own enviroment and in the tropics surprises are very common.What we have to follow is where the eye tracks hopefully it goes thru the more taller mountains in easterncentral Cuba part of that island and weakens it bigtime.

[EarthStormFire]

Guess this means NOLA is now safe. UKMET is the lone outlier in its insistance that NOLA will be pumeled.

You are crazy for thinking NOLA is safe. This is a change that is expected and not a surprise, the models will likely shift back west.

I agree. Those models are all off the GFS (except UKMET), really only one model shifted East, the GFS. wait until 12 Z run folks. Those models are using data from 7PM last night.

So all of the models but the UKMET are based off a single model the GFS. So if the GFS is way off then these would be way off too?

[mobilebay]

Guess this means NOLA is now safe. UKMET is the lone outlier in its insistance that NOLA will be pumeled.

You are crazy for thinking NOLA is safe. This is a change that is expected and not a surprise, the models will likely shift back west.

I agree. Those models are all off the GFS (except UKMET), really only one model shifted East, the GFS. wait until 12 Z run folks. Those models are using data from 7PM last night.

So all of the models but the UKMET are based off a single model the GFS. So if the GFS is way off then these would be way off too?

correct

[Brent]

I don't like those runs. We do NOT need anymore rain here, much less wind.

[Stormcenter]

It's good news for N.O. that the trend continues to be eastward and not westward but I would NOT let my guard down
for one second until Dennis is on shore. IMO

[dixiebreeze]

Not at all surprised. Expect models to cluster even farther east eventually. This is getting downright scary.

[tracyswfla]

Not at all surprised. Expect models to cluster even farther east eventually. This is getting downright scary.

It is getting scarier with each model run.

[chris_fit]

Can we get some PRO METS opinions on the sudden shift, fairly large, shift to the right?

[Derek Ortt]

its a very small right shift. 40 miles is NOT even close to a large shift

[jkt21787]

Can we get some PRO METS opinions on the sudden shift, fairly large, shift to the right?

I agree as well, since I don't know what I'm talking about

Seriously, if this thing does hit FL, it won't come in as a major given all I'm seeing and reading elsewhere. Hopefully that makes people feel a little better.

[jdray]

The CMC (you can call it Bunk if you want) and the NOGAPS have really been the ones with the same paths model after model.


The others are west then right quite a bit.