06Z GFS continues trend of eastward shift

[clfenwi]

Haven't reached the conclusion (i.e. landfall yet), but it appears that this run brings the center of Dennis overland in Florida...

[ericinmia]

This is doing exactly what i was telling people last night it would do.

But, take this with a grain of salt. The 06z run is based off of the 00z, instead of run completely from scratch.
-Eric

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[mobilebay]

at 84 hours= Pensacola

[mobilebay]

This is doing exactly what i was telling people last night it would do.

But, take this with a grain of salt. The 06z run is based off of the 00z, instead of run completely from scratch.
-Eric

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

thanks Eric. I was going to say that but didn't. The 12Z run should be interesting.

[Dean4Storms]

It is becoming clearer and the models are pretty much consistant in that Dennis will come ashore somewhere between New Orleans to PCB, FL come Monday. This all of the region still recovering from Ivan.

The determining factor as to how far west he goes is the strength of the ridge to his east once in the Gulf and I just don't see it building strong enough to send him toward TX. or even west of New Orleans.

[Aquawind]

I am more curious to see if the 12Z actually continues to shift right.. The 06Z is whacked eastward just like the 00Z of course being it's based on the 00Z.. 12Z will be another fresh run and hopefully it shifts westward. Crazy GFS..

Paul

[N2Storms]

this is the 2nd night in a row where the models seem to trend east only to be followed by the daytime models trending back west. I am a bon fide amateur, but could there be some anomaly that is triggering these fluctuations? Just curious. IMO the models will shift west again and it'll probably be Friday or Sat before the models get a firm grip on the atmospheric conditions in the Gulf that will determine Dennis' ultimate destination.

[Wpwxguy]

That is a true statement. Every other run of the GFS is what we should look at. If 12Z has the eastward shift then we have something to work with. Models are really no good from run to run. We need to see a trend. I've found that 06Z and 18Z are almost duplicates of the last run. When we get that fresh info in there, then we can rejoice. Rejoicing would depend on your location. LOL My personal opinion is that there may be a slight shift east but tomorrows run will probably shift back a little west. Right now its a coin toss, thats about how dependable the models are this far out. By tomorrow night we should be in that window where we can get some clarification and believability from the models.