5am Official NHC Advisory For Dennis....

[ericinmia]

Hurricane Dennis Advisory Number 11


Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on July 07, 2005


...Hurricane Dennis expected to become stronger...heading for
Jamaica...

a Hurricane Warning is in effect for the southwestern peninsula
of Haiti from the Dominican Republic border westward...all of
Jamaica...all of the Cayman Islands...and portions of eastern Cuba
for The Provinces of Granma...Santiago de Cuba...and Guantanamo.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for portions of central and
eastern Cuba for The Provinces of Sancti Spiritus...Ciego de
Avila...Camaguey...Las Tunas...and Holguin.

The Hurricane Warning and the Hurricane Watch for Cuba will likely
be extended westward later this morning.

Interests in the central and western Caribbean Sea should monitor
the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 5 am EDT...0900z...the center of Hurricane Dennis was located
near latitude 17.0 north...longitude 74.6 west or about 160
miles...260 km...east-southeast of Kingston Jamaica and about 225
miles... 360 km...south of Guantanamo Cuba.

Dennis is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph...24 km/hr.
This general motion is expected to continue during the next 24
hours. On this track...Dennis is expected to be over or very near
Jamaica later today.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph...150
km/hr...with higher gusts. Dennis is a category one hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson scale. Additional strengthening is forecast
...And Dennis could become a strong category 2 hurricane by the
time it reaches Jamaica later today.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles... 35 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 125 miles...205 km.

Latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance plane was 970 mb...28.64 inches.

Dennis is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to
10 inches over southern Hispaniola...Jamaica...eastern Cuba...and
the Cayman Islands. Isolated maximum amounts of 15 to 20 inches are
possible over the mountainous terrain of Jamaica. These rains
could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
Repeating the 5 am EDT position...17.0 N... 74.6 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 15 mph. Maximum sustained winds...90
mph. Minimum central pressure...970 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 8 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 11 am
EDT.

Forecaster Avila

$$

[ericinmia]

Hurricane Dennis Discussion Number 11


Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on July 07, 2005



the cloud pattern has continued to improve in organization and an
eye has been observed intermittently on IR images. The outflow
continues to be well established in all quadrants and it is quite
impressive on the western semicircle...and this is not very common
for cyclones in the central Caribbean...due to common interaction
with the mid-oceanic upper-level trough. This trough is currently
weaker than normal. T-numbers have increased to 4.5 and 5.0 on the
Dvorak scale. A reconnaissance plane just measured 87 knots at
flight level and a minimum pressure of 970 mb. Based on this
information the initial intensity has been increased to 80 knots.
Dennis is expected to be moving over the waters south of central
and western Cuba during the next 24 to 36 hours. The ocean in this
region has a very high heat content and with the prevailing low
wind shear...Dennis could become a major hurricane with 100 to 105
knot winds. This is consistent with the SHIPS model. The latest
GFDL does not intensify Dennis as much as in the previous
run because it keeps the circulation of the hurricane over Cuba.

The motion of Dennis continues to be controlled by a subtropical
ridge over the western Atlantic. The initial motion remains 300/13
and this general track should continue during the next couple of
days. Thereafter...the ridge is forecast to shift eastward...
allowing the hurricane to turn more to the northwest over the Gulf
of Mexico. Dynamical guidance continues to be tightly clustered...
bringing the hurricane toward the eastern and central Gulf of
Mexico in 3 to 4 days. The official forecast follows the consensus
and the FSU superensemble.

Forecaster Avila


forecast positions and Max winds

initial 07/0900z 17.0n 74.6w 80 kt
12hr VT 07/1800z 18.1n 76.4w 85 kt
24hr VT 08/0600z 20.0n 79.0w 100 kt
36hr VT 08/1800z 21.6n 81.5w 105 kt
48hr VT 09/0600z 23.5n 83.5w 105 kt
72hr VT 10/0600z 27.5n 86.5w 105 kt
96hr VT 11/0600z 32.0n 88.5w 70 kt...inland
120hr VT 12/0600z 36.1n 90.5w 40 kt...inland


$$

[mobilebay]

970MB.

[george_r_1961]

Time for people along the Gulf coast ti be ready to implement their hurricane plan. Hopefull by tommorow we will have a better idea where its gonna hit.

[mobilebay]

It don't look good for me at all right now. George, I think i'm going to give it one more 00Z run tonight and if it still looks like even a threat, I'm going to get my stuff together Friday.

[george_r_1961]

It don't look good for me at all right now. George, I think i'm going to give it one more 00Z run tonight and if it still looks like even a threat, I'm going to get my stuff together Friday.

Good idea. Even if it hits NO like I think it will u are still gonna be in the right front quad. Dennis is a large hurricane and the wind field could expand as it gets a bit further north.

[crazycajuncane]

yikes!

Mississippi/Alabama state line by the looks of it in less than 92 hours.

Thats a lil west from my original AL/FL state line hit!

BEEN A LONG NIGHT GOODNIGHT!

Nice chattin with ya eric!

[BamaMan]

Doesnt look good for a rather large portion of the coast due to the size of Dennis. Hopefully by tomorrow we will even have a better idea. I do think though it is time for us to start making some preparations.

[crazycajuncane]

Doesnt look good for a rather large portion of the coast due to the size of Dennis. Hopefully by tomorrow we will even have a better idea. I do think though it is time for us to start making some preparations.

I went to Perdido Key, FL a few weeks ago. Trust me when I say, "I know you guys can't afford a hurricane ESPECIALLY a Cat. 3!"

[TheShrimper]

Can all you people minus Eric, read correctly in terms of Dennis's size? Dennis is as small as Charley windfield wise. Hurricane force winds extend only 25 miles from the center and TS winds a little over 100. Not saying that he wont expand in time, but Dennis is not a large hurricane. Dont make it sound like he is the second coming of Floyd.

[ericinmia]

Can all you people minus Eric, read correctly in terms of Dennis's size? Dennis is as small as Charley windfield wise. Hurricane force winds extend only 25 miles from the center and TS winds a little over 100. Not saying that he wont expand in time, but Dennis is not a large hurricane. Dont make it sound like he is the second coming of Floyd.

Very true, especially considering he has been consolidating into a denser CDO... much smaller than the sprawling mass he was a day ago.

I found it interesting that the storm is still moving 300/13

It is slower, and moving wnw-nw still. This should quiet a lot of the fighting on the board at least for a few hours.

I'm too tired... time for bed.
-Eric

[BamaMan]

What I meant by size, was that if you look at the coast, say from Biloxi to Pensacola you are only talking about 110-115 total miles. 3 States affected. Doesn't take a huge storm, making landfall in the right place to affect many!!!