Local New Orleans Met.."Make Plans To Leave Now"

[Sean in New Orleans]

Bob Breck said to go ahead and make your hotel reservations towards Shreveport/Jackson/Dallas (not due West or East). He said that "IF" it appears that New Orleanians will need to evacuate, people will have to begin to leave on Saturday so there isn't an onslaught on Sunday and repeat traffic jams (even with the contra-flow plan). He said that he spoke with a colleaque of his tonight at the NHC on the phone and he said the NHC forecaster said the NHC truly believes that this system will come "closer," to New Orleans than Ivan did last year. Breck seemed genuinely concerned, but, not overly dramatic as he has been at times in the past. He did point out that if the storm does not head directly to New Orleans, we could always cancel our hotel reservations. But, he said, to go ahead and make them now....

[jkt21787]

Absolutely. Get your plan in place and ready to activate at a moment's notice. Despite what some models show, New Orleans I would consider to be the city most at risk at this point, along with Mobile and Biloxi/Gulfport.

[reeef]

safe than sorry.

[mobilebay]

Bob Breck said to go ahead and make your hotel reservations towards Shreveport/Jackson/Dallas (not due West or East). He said that "IF" it appears that New Orleanians will need to evacuate, people will have to begin to leave on Saturday so there isn't an onslaught on Sunday and repeat traffic jams (even with the contra-flow plan). He said that he spoke with a colleaque of his tonight at the NHC on the phone and he said the NHC forecaster said the NHC truly believes that this system will come "closer," to New Orleans than Ivan did last year. Breck seemed genuinely concerned, but, not overly dramatic as he has been at times in the past. He did point out that if the storm does not head directly to New Orleans, we could always cancel our hotel reservations. But, he said, to go ahead and make them now....

Bob Breck is one heck of a guy. also, that really disturbes me what the guy from the NHC said.

[Anonymous]

I agree make your arrangements now, packing and all. You can always cancel and unpack later if necessary. Get your medication refills now do not wait as the pharmacy may start to run low on certain prescriptions due to the mass amount of refills being requested.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I say its better to be safe then sorry. Get out now before you have to be bumper to bumper for hours. It might be a even better idea(In New orleans) Case to just stay above sea level. Maybe even get away from the coast. A few safety tips that could save your life!!!

[Hurricane Cheese]

These are good ideas from Mr. Breck. Now really is the time to prepare.

Tomorrow will be a big day in zeroing in on potential landfall areas and intensity...

[crazycajuncane]

These are good ideas from Mr. Breck. Now really is the time to prepare.

Tomorrow will be a big day in zeroing in on potential landfall areas and intensity...

I tend to disagree. I think more towards after lunch on Friday we'll have the best grasp on who should and should not evacuate. I've been saying this myself. I then heard that is about the time Phase I evacuations would start. See how smart I am!

But seriously.... everyone is worried! From the Panhandle of Florida to Houston, Texas. If you panic this early and send out evacs and it doesn't hit.... people will become less and less willing to evacuate in the future. I believe Friday afternoon would give ample time to start getting cars out. All day Saturday and then half of Sunday. That's 2 full days.... 48 hours. The plans call for Phase I 50 hours out.

[wafbwx]

crazycajuncane --

I think the point here is that people need to PREPARE, not necessarily make set-in-stone plans to leave on Saturday. I was in contact with much of my family last night in the N.O. area and told them to start making hotel reservations. You can always cancel reservations (maybe paying a fee), but if you wait until the last minute, it can be close to impossible to find a place to stay.

BTW...I had family members in the N.O. area without power for 8-10 hours last night from a strong tropical storm. That was a modest wind storm last night, not even a problem when it comes to water.

[mobilebay]

crazycajuncane --

I think the point here is that people need to PREPARE, not necessarily make set-in-stone plans to leave on Saturday. I was in contact with much of my family last night in the N.O. area and told them to start making hotel reservations. You can always cancel reservations (maybe paying a fee), but if you wait until the last minute, it can be close to impossible to find a place to stay.

BTW...I had family members in the N.O. area without power for 8-10 hours last night from a strong tropical storm. That was a modest wind storm last night, not even a problem when it comes to water.

Also i see where they have speeded it up a lot. They have it making landfall sunday evening instead of Monday. Also i want to ask you since you are a Pro-met. How accurate is the NHC within 72 hours, because it is bearing down at 72 hours?

[crazycajuncane]

crazycajuncane --

I think the point here is that people need to PREPARE, not necessarily make set-in-stone plans to leave on Saturday. I was in contact with much of my family last night in the N.O. area and told them to start making hotel reservations. You can always cancel reservations (maybe paying a fee), but if you wait until the last minute, it can be close to impossible to find a place to stay.

BTW...I had family members in the N.O. area without power for 8-10 hours last night from a strong tropical storm. That was a modest wind storm last night, not even a problem when it comes to water.

I agree 100% on the preparing point. We should always be prepared, but to start scaring people this far out doesn't help. Why?

I can tell you lots of people were upset about the evacs last year. I work at a restaurant here in Lafayette and many people in New Orleans said they'd rather ride out a storm before going through the hell they went through.

Especially sick or elderly people, they can't be in traffic for 10 hours.

I agree prepare for the worst, pray for the best. I hope everyone is prepared. Now... when the evacs are called people should GO! Don't stay and wait behind. I agree with all of that. Just be careful not to hype something that could possibly hit Florida at this point in time.

[wafbwx]

Also i see where they have speeded it up a lot. They have it making landfall sunday evening instead of Monday. Surprised Also i want to ask you since you are a Pro-met. How accurate is the NHC within 72 hours, because it is bearing down at 72 hours?

Here's a page that you may find interesting:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/pdfs/1970-2004_OFCL_ATL_annual_trk_errors_noTDs.pdf

And by the way mobilebay, I'm a graduate of South Alabama, so I spent quite a bit of time in your neck of the woods. I also covered Ivan last year on the Eastern Shore.

[wafbwx]

I agree 100% on the preparing point. We should always be prepared, but to start scaring people this far out doesn't help. Why?

I can tell you lots of people were upset about the evacs last year. I work at a restaurant here in Lafayette and many people in New Orleans said they'd rather ride out a storm before going through the hell they went through.

Especially sick or elderly people, they can't be in traffic for 10 hours.

I agree prepare for the worst, pray for the best. I hope everyone is prepared. Now... when the evacs are called people should GO! Don't stay and wait behind. I agree with all of that. Just be careful not to hype something that could possibly hit Florida at this point in time.

Honestly, I think you and I agree on the key points. My only point is that if people are going to evacuate, they need to have a place to go to lined up now. In fact, they should have had a good plan on June 1. The problem is that if you wait until the evacuation order is actually issued, you're going to have a very difficult time finding a place. My family evacuated last year for Ivan and said in spite of the headaches, they will do it again. It would be ideal if they could wait until Saturday to make plans, but it just doesn't work that way. For those who do wait until then, they could be driving to Memphis or further north trying to find a hotel room. I don't think that MOST of the mets in N.O. are over-hyping this storm...just trying to get everyone ready. It's truly not about trying to pinpoint a landfall at this point...we're just not good enough to give enough notice for the entire city (1 million +) to evacuate for any storm. The idea is to try and make it a little less painful.

Steve

[MannyG]

crazycajuncane --

I think the point here is that people need to PREPARE, not necessarily make set-in-stone plans to leave on Saturday. I was in contact with much of my family last night in the N.O. area and told them to start making hotel reservations. You can always cancel reservations (maybe paying a fee), but if you wait until the last minute, it can be close to impossible to find a place to stay.

BTW...I had family members in the N.O. area without power for 8-10 hours last night from a strong tropical storm. That was a modest wind storm last night, not even a problem when it comes to water.

I agree 100% on the preparing point. We should always be prepared, but to start scaring people this far out doesn't help. Why?

I can tell you lots of people were upset about the evacs last year. I work at a restaurant here in Lafayette and many people in New Orleans said they'd rather ride out a storm before going through the hell they went through.

Especially sick or elderly people, they can't be in traffic for 10 hours.

I agree prepare for the worst, pray for the best. I hope everyone is prepared. Now... when the evacs are called people should GO! Don't stay and wait behind. I agree with all of that. Just be careful not to hype something that could possibly hit Florida at this point in time.

I disagree with ya. With the contraflow plan you have to make plans now. For example, if you hit the causeway it means your going to McComb if contraflow is going on. To be best prepared the time is now to talk to family about where you are going to go (make reservations), look at the map to determine how to get there if contraflow is enacted, put the important papers together, take pictures for insurance purposes if necessary, that way if on Friday or Saturday if they say go you are ready to go. I think this is all Bob was saying.

[wafbwx]

I disagree with ya. With the contraflow plan you have to make plans now. For example, if you hit the causeway it means your going to McComb if contraflow is going on. To be best prepared the time is now to make talk to family about where you are going to go (make reservations), look at the map to determine how to get there if contraflow is enacted, put the important papers together, take pictures for insurance purposes if necessary, that way if on Friday or Saturday if they say go you are ready to go. I think this is all Bob was saying.

You nailed it and hit another good point. The *revised* contraflow plan this year is going to make travel less flexible, but hopefully should relieve a little congestion. As a State Police spokesman put it in our Hurricane Special, "there's not enough concrete between here and Texas [and other places] for everyone to evacuate without having to put their foot on the brakes."

[mobilebay]

Also i see where they have speeded it up a lot. They have it making landfall sunday evening instead of Monday. Surprised Also i want to ask you since you are a Pro-met. How accurate is the NHC within 72 hours, because it is bearing down at 72 hours?

Here's a page that you may find interesting:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/pdfs/1970-2004_OFCL_ATL_annual_trk_errors_noTDs.pdf

And by the way mobilebay, I'm a graduate of South Alabama, so I spent quite a bit of time in your neck of the woods. I also covered Ivan last year on the Eastern Shore.

My work computer will not allow me to open that program. One someone please explain the error rait at 72 hours.

[mobilebay]

Also i see where they have speeded it up a lot. They have it making landfall sunday evening instead of Monday. Surprised Also i want to ask you since you are a Pro-met. How accurate is the NHC within 72 hours, because it is bearing down at 72 hours?

Here's a page that you may find interesting:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/pdfs/1970-2004_OFCL_ATL_annual_trk_errors_noTDs.pdf

And by the way mobilebay, I'm a graduate of South Alabama, so I spent quite a bit of time in your neck of the woods. I also covered Ivan last year on the Eastern Shore.

Did you do any work with Dr. Bill Williams?

[BamaMan]

Dr. Bill is the man. He doesn't like the looks of Dennis for our area at all. He'll be back on Sports Radio FM105.5 (Mobile) this morning around 7:15 to discuss Dennis with Wayne Gardner

[sunny]

I normally do not make a post like this, but here goes.

The last thing we need is a panic. Get your plans in place. Know where you are going. Get a checklist so you don't forget anything you need to take with you. Make sure your car is in good running condition and the gas tank is topped off. Have your map handy. That way if and when the order comes down, you are ready to go.

Look, I am very nervous right now. If Dennis does come up the mouth of the river, we are in very big trouble here. So I will take today to get things in order. Let's just be ready to go, but let's try not to panic. Panic is what causes all of the problems.

I'm getting off my soap box now!

[Steve]

>>I agree 100% on the preparing point. We should always be prepared, but to start scaring people this far out doesn't help. Why?

I don't see it as a scare tactic, more of a common sense preparation one. I know people who were able to find rooms in B.R. yesterday morning, but everything in and around Gonzales et al were full. By last night, my wife had the option of Dallas, Shreveport, Bossier City or Memphis. No way she wanted to go west with that chaotic traffic so she opted for North. It's 6 hours either way and you can catch the 61 to the 51 and then jump on the 55 without as much hassle as traversing the I-10 which is sure to be gridlocked if a threat comes to fruition.

Steve