Dennis looks to pass south side of Jamaica....

[MGC]

Based on satellite IR imagery, it appears that Dennis will pass near the south shore of Jamaica. Dennis is forming an eye and the last couple of frames of the IR loop reveals a motion towards Jamaica south shore. Ivan and Dennis were both predicted to pass north of Jamaica.......MGC

[tampastorm]

I would say It will be at worse right over if not North. Looking at the current loops how do you figure South?

[Stratosphere747]

If the latest center fix is how I read it, it has really taken a move towards the west..

But I may have read it wrong..

[tampastorm]

I see more north,lol.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

When a system is bombing over the Caribbean they stay more westward. Remember Gilbert. Or even Ivan...Isiodar. To name a few. This thing is getting stronger by the minute. 975 millibars was the last report.

[Hurricaneman]

Hes bombing

[crazycajuncane]

So I was right... Ivan did pass just to the South of Jamaica.

I remember it missing Jamaica, but wasn't 100% sure if it was to the south or not.

[MGC]

I use the dead reckoning method to determine future positions. Dennis looks to me like it will pass to the south side of the island......MGC

[LilNoles2005]

it's a close call as to if Dennis will skirt the southern shore of Jamaica or make a direct landfall... could go either way and each jog here and there is crucial to the people on that island.

[Anonymous]

For the sake of all I sure hope it passes just to the south, that would be their lucky break.

[Droop12]

But we all must remember that north or south of Jamaica, it doesnt make a huge difference in the grand scheme of things. Major canes' usually pump up the ridge around them, which is why majors tend to move westward, but thats not always the case. They also tend to move poleward, so I cant comment much on that.

[crazycajuncane]

For the sake of all I sure hope it passes just to the south, that would be their lucky break.

lucky break 2 years in a row at that

[Droop12]

Even if Dennis moves just south of Jamaica, that'll put them in the NE quad, not the prettiest place to be either.

[tw861]

I see more north,lol.

As I posted on the other thread you started, I don't see it. What are you looking at to base your observation on ?

If you have a high speed internet connection go here:

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes

Select the 1km IR (Top row middle)

Select 15 images, 100% quality, and high zoom factor then click over the top of the storm. The center is pretty evident and I got to tell you it's not moving more northward right now.

Also recon fix at 06/2305 was 1612(16.2)/7243(72.7)
fix at 07/0324 was 1624(16.4)/7338(73.6)

That's .2n/.9w almost due west. Ir pictures can decieve but recon doesn't lie.

I don't want to start another firestorm around here, but I agree if it keeps this up it will pass south of Jamaica. I don't know whether it will or not just making an observation.

[Wpwxguy]

Well earlier today it started a NW movement, and we had a debate on another thread. I said there that it would resume a westward motion and indeed it has. I still say south of Jamaica or very close to the southern coast.

[Stratosphere747]

I have to agree with you tw....This is the typical west vs north arguement...

If the latest fix from the NOAA plane is indeed the center, the update will confirm..

[jkt21787]

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... =spect.pal
Loop of not only the eye in formation stages, but also pretty clear indications that Dennis is moving south of Jamaica. Its gonna have to turn NW or NNW very, very soon and Its not happening.

[mobilebay]

Based on satellite IR imagery, it appears that Dennis will pass near the south shore of Jamaica. Dennis is forming an eye and the last couple of frames of the IR loop reveals a motion towards Jamaica south shore. Ivan and Dennis were both predicted to pass north of Jamaica.......MGC

You mean this one is going to develop?

[Ixolib]

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-8%20HURRICANE&lat=18.8&lon=-75.8&zoom=2&width=400&height=300&type=Animation&palette=spect.pal
Loop of not only the eye in formation stages, but also pretty clear indications that Dennis is moving south of Jamaica. Its gonna have to turn NW or NNW very, very soon and Its not happening.

Looks like an embryo...

[skysummit]

He's been moving the same direction all day long. A jog to the north, a jog to the west and so on. Even if it looks as though it's more of a "northerly component" or more of a "westerly component", it all evens itself out in the end....pretty much WNW.