00z Canadian shifts east with other Globals

[Vortex]

Canadian poses a threat to S.Fl and the Keys. 00z GFS also shifts slightly to the east. 00z Nogaps also a bit further east. Al posing a greater threat to Florida and potentially bringing the system dangeroulsy close to the Keys and even S Fl. Obviously, recon data fed into the models this evening has set a potential trend....


http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/mode ... 20_100.gif

[dixiebreeze]

Amazing Vortex! I just said as much on another thread!

[jkt21787]

Canadian showed this at 12z and is doing poorly on this system much like the NAM and perhaps even the GFS tonight.

[boca]

How do you read that model its 4 boxes.

[boca]

I just figured it out, its late.

[PurdueWx80]

The Canadian GEM has been one of the right-most outliers all along - no shift east here yet from what I can see.

[jkt21787]

The Canadian GEM has been one of the right-most outliers all along - no shift east here yet from what I can see.

Yes, again this has been an outlier here for a while.

I'm sorry if I'm being mean, but people keep posting the models that show FL hits, and they are the models that are initilaizing poorly or just doing bad overall. Please read previous posts and understand this.

We need to see the more reliable models like the UKMET and the tropicals and the GFS make significant shifts to the east as well. I know GFS was east a bit, but it could be a bad run tonight as ALHurricane mentioned in another thread.

[Scorpion]

Holy crap I thought we were totally out of the woods .

[jkt21787]

Holy crap I thought we were totally out of the woods .

Don't trust the Canadian. Must we say this again.

[feederband]

The Canadian GEM has been one of the right-most outliers all along - no shift east here yet from what I can see.

Yes, again this has been an outlier here for a while.

I'm sorry if I'm being mean, but people keep posting the models that show FL hits, and they are the models that are initilaizing poorly or just doing bad overall. Please read previous posts and understand this.

We need to see the more reliable models like the UKMET and the tropicals and the GFS make significant shifts to the east as well. I know GFS was east a bit, but it could be a bad run tonight as ALHurricane mentioned in another thread.

I kind of confused what causes a bad run..

[mobilebay]

The Canadian has not shifted East. It has been in right field the the whole time. As for the NAM . The rest of the guidance is pretty tightly clustered along the central Gulf Coast. Right where the NHC has their forecast. I think they are right on. Throw out that one bad run (12Z) of the GFS and it has stayed in the same general area.

[jkt21787]

The Canadian GEM has been one of the right-most outliers all along - no shift east here yet from what I can see.

Yes, again this has been an outlier here for a while.

I'm sorry if I'm being mean, but people keep posting the models that show FL hits, and they are the models that are initilaizing poorly or just doing bad overall. Please read previous posts and understand this.

We need to see the more reliable models like the UKMET and the tropicals and the GFS make significant shifts to the east as well. I know GFS was east a bit, but it could be a bad run tonight as ALHurricane mentioned in another thread.

I kind of confused what causes a bad run..

In the case of the GFS, it does bad in the first 48 hours with too far N and E, it s obvious it will not take that path. Its also too fast.

NAM and CMC are initializing the system WAAAAAY too weak (~1000mb area). That will automatically want to take the system further east.

Look at this...Dennis track has been consistently going south of recent GFS models...

[Derecho]

The Canadian on a routine basis has a hilariously bad right bias for TCs.

It's the worst-performing global model in objective verification stats for a reason; it's often off by its lonesome as an outlier.

Also makes it the model of choice, for example, for Northeastern US people I disagree with; it showed Isabel hitting Long Island when every other model was tightly clustered on a North Carolina hit.

[TS Zack]

Also, how can storm rapidly strengthen over Central Fl.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2005070700&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[clfenwi]

Actually, Canadian shifted a touch west

Compare http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmc ... 12/11.html

and

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmc ... 700/9.html

[ericinmia]

The resolution of that map is not good enough to show but the canadian... as of now is showing a miami hit. It is slightly east of before, BUT then curves a smidge farther west thant the previous run at 12z.
-Eric

btw. i'm not claiming a miami hit. see its practically over the bahamas!

[WeatherEmperor]

We'll be at this all day long.

<RICKY>