Dennis Advisorys

[cycloneye]

WTNT44 KNHC 070259
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED JUL 06 2005

DENNIS HAS FINALLY MIXED OUT THE DRY AIR THAT HAD WRAPPED INTO THE
CENTER DURING THE DAY. AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT HAVE BEEN FLYING INTO DENNIS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
AND REPORTS INDICATE SURFACE WINDS HAVE LIKELY INCREASED TO AT LEAST
75 KT AND THE PRESSURE HAS DECREASED TO AT LEAST 980 MB...A
PRESSURE DROP OF 7 MB IN THE PAST 5 HOURS. A CDO FEATURE HAS ALSO
DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTER IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND A WARM
SPOT/PRE-EYE FEATURE HAS BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. HOWEVER...AN EARLIER SSMI MICROWAVE OVERPASS INDICATED A
CLOSED EYE HAD ALREADY DEVELOPED IN THE MID-LEVELS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/13. THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO
PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING. THE MODELS REMAIN IN STRONG
AGREEMENT THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY EXTENDING EAST-WEST
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL REMAIN INTACT THROUGH 60-72
HOURS. THIS SHOULD KEEP DENNIS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH 72
HOURS. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER... THE MODELS VARY SIGNIFICANTLY ON HOW
THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW PATTERN EVOLVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN U.S....WHICH ULTIMATELY HAS AN IMPACT ON THE STEERING FLOW
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. HALF OF THE MODELS BUILD A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS LIKE THE NAM...CANADIAN...GFDL...
AND NOGAPS HAVE LESS RIDGING AND MORE TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL GULF. OVERALL...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
TO THE RIGHT. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER RANGE...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.

NOW THAT A CDO AND EYE HAVE DEVELOPED...THE ONLY INHIBITING FACTOR
WOULD BE INTERACTION WITH LAND. IN THE ABSENCE OF THAT...THE LOW
SHEAR AND 29C SSTS FAVOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE LATEST GFDL MODEL RUN BRINGS DENNIS TO 127
KT IN 36 HOURS...WHILE THE SHIPS MODEL IS FAIRLY ROBUST IN TAKING
DENNIS UP TO 107 KT IN 60 HOURS. ALL OF THE MODELS AGREE THAT SOME
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR COULD AFFECT THE HURRICANE JUST PRIOR TO MAKING
LANDFALL...SO SLIGHT WEAKENING IS INDICATED AT 96 HOURS.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/0300Z 16.5N 73.4W 75 KT
12HR VT 07/1200Z 17.6N 75.4W 85 KT
24HR VT 08/0000Z 19.2N 77.8W 95 KT
36HR VT 08/1200Z 20.7N 80.1W 105 KT
48HR VT 09/0000Z 22.2N 82.1W 105 KT
72HR VT 10/0000Z 25.0N 85.0W 105 KT
96HR VT 11/0000Z 28.5N 87.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 12/0000Z 32.0N 88.5W 80 KT...INLAND

[HurryKane]

Yikes, this new track has it landfalling a half day faster. There are going to be some very tense folks all over the GOM coast the next day or so.

It's always been Monday Morning for the landfall... 5pm might have been a tad slower(11am or Noon). Not much difference.

*smacks self in head* Oh yeah, I keep forgetting that since real time has passed, the 5-day forecast gets further into the future. Doh!

[Brent]

Very good discussion by Stewart.

[CentralFlGal]

THE MODELS REMAIN IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY EXTENDING EAST-WEST
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL REMAIN INTACT THROUGH 60-72 HOURS. THIS SHOULD KEEP DENNIS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH 72 HOURS. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER... THE MODELS VARY SIGNIFICANTLY

In other words, in 3 days - anything goes

[jasons2k]

I agree, great discussion by Stewart and actually much to think about now.

I wonder if the models are having a tough time with the ridge and therefore are taking a safer route thru the middle.

[Canelaw99]

I agree, great discussion by Stewart and actually much to think about now.

I wonder if the models are having a tough time with the ridge and therefore are taking a safer route thru the middle.

I believe the models generally have a tough time with a ridge. As I remember last year, the motto seemed to be "timing is everything" when it came to the storms.

[reeef]

so if this ridge builds in more.. as it is right now it will push it west towards se tx /la am i correct?

[soonertwister]

The presumption that interaction with the land of Cuba will keep the intensity at 105 knots from 36 to 72 hours.

I'm not so sure, but I still don't believe that this hurricane is likely to attain more that 115 knots prior to landfall, which means category 3 is the likely upper limit of Dennis.

Intensity is the hardest part of hurricane forecasting, and slowly but surely, I'm beginning to understand why.

[gkrangers]

so if this ridge builds in more.. as it is right now it will push it west towards se tx /la am i correct?

Yes.

[Hurricane Cheese]

This is the first I've heard of some possible shear effecting Dennis once he's entered the GOM.

Up to now I've heard the conditions throughout the period, should remain quite favorable for development.

Granted, Stewart only indicates slight shear may affect it and the models are known to be pretty unpredictable with intensity forecasts...meaning that potential shear may be gone by tomorrow.

Climitalogically, it seems Dennis should be in a very favorable enviorment for development with its current track, ala Charley and Ivan and even farther back when storms like Mitch and Gilbert exploded in the Western Caribbean.

[Ixolib]

This is the first I've heard of some possible shear effecting Dennis once he's entered the GOM.

Up to now I've heard the conditions throughout the period, should remain quite favorable for development.

Granted, Stewart only indicates slight shear may affect it and the models are known to be pretty unpredictable with intensity forecasts...meaning that potential shear may be gone by tomorrow.

Climitalogically, it seems Dennis should be in a very favorable enviorment for development with its current track, ala Charley and Ivan and even farther back when storms like Mitch and Gilbert exploded in the Western Caribbean.

Our local met (Mike Reader - WLOX) said that some upwelling from Cindy may still be in place as well just prior to landfall that may weaken him somewhat...

[jkt21787]

This is the first I've heard of some possible shear effecting Dennis once he's entered the GOM.

Up to now I've heard the conditions throughout the period, should remain quite favorable for development.

Granted, Stewart only indicates slight shear may affect it and the models are known to be pretty unpredictable with intensity forecasts...meaning that potential shear may be gone by tomorrow.

Climitalogically, it seems Dennis should be in a very favorable enviorment for development with its current track, ala Charley and Ivan and even farther back when storms like Mitch and Gilbert exploded in the Western Caribbean.

Our local met (Mike Reader - WLOX) said that some upwelling from Cindy may still be in place as well just prior to landfall that may weaken him somewhat...

Upwelling was very little from Cindy, that will be gone most likely.

However shear could develop and that will help weaken it. It could save the impact zone from a cat 3 or higher, though by no means and I'm saying one won't happen at this time.

[Wnghs2007]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 070541
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DENNIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT THU JUL 07 2005

...HURRICANE DENNIS AIMS AT JAMAICA...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA
OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD...ALL OF
JAMAICA...ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA
FOR THE PROVINCES OF GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE
AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...AND HOLGUIN. A HURRICANE WARNING MAY
BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA THURSDAY MORNING.

INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 74.2 WEST OR ABOUT 160
MILES... 255 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 235
MILES...375 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.

DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER OR VERY NEAR
JAMAICA LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS MAKES DENNIS A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND DENNIS COULD BECOME A STRONG CATEGORY 2
HURRICANE BY THE TIME IT REACHES JAMAICA TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 125 MILES...205 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY A NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO WAS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.

DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...EASTERN CUBA...AND
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF JAMAICA. THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...16.7 N... 74.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 85
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

$$

[Cookiely]

This is the first I've heard of some possible shear effecting Dennis once he's entered the GOM.

Up to now I've heard the conditions throughout the period, should remain quite favorable for development.

Granted, Stewart only indicates slight shear may affect it and the models are known to be pretty unpredictable with intensity forecasts...meaning that potential shear may be gone by tomorrow.

Climitalogically, it seems Dennis should be in a very favorable enviorment for development with its current track, ala Charley and Ivan and even farther back when storms like Mitch and Gilbert exploded in the Western Caribbean.

Our local met (Mike Reader - WLOX) said that some upwelling from Cindy may still be in place as well just prior to landfall that may weaken him somewhat...

Our local met corrected his assistant when she made that comment about Cindy cooling the waters. He said the Gulf is not the Atlantic and it doesn't take long to warm up again and that it would before Dennis got to that point.

[drudd1]

WTNT34 KNHC 070839
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DENNIS ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU JUL 07 2005


A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA
OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD...ALL OF
JAMAICA...ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA
FOR THE PROVINCES OF GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE
AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...AND HOLGUIN.

THE HURRICANE WARNING AND THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR CUBA WILL LIKELY
BE EXTENDED WESTWARD LATER THIS MORNING.

INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.6 WEST OR ABOUT 160
MILES...260 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 225
MILES... 360 KM...SOUTH OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.

DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER OR VERY NEAR
JAMAICA LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
...AND DENNIS COULD BECOME A STRONG CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE BY THE
TIME IT REACHES JAMAICA LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 125 MILES...205 KM.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.

DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...EASTERN CUBA...AND
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF JAMAICA. THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...17.0 N... 74.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM
EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

$$

[drudd1]

WTNT24 KNHC 070839
TCMAT4
HURRICANE DENNIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042005
0900Z THU JUL 07 2005


A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA
OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD...ALL OF
JAMAICA...ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA
FOR THE PROVINCES OF GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE
AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...AND HOLGUIN.

THE HURRICANE WARNING AND THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR CUBA WILL LIKELY
BE EXTENDED WESTWARD LATER THIS MORNING.

INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 74.6W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 95 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT.......110NE 75SE 40SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..110NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 74.6W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 74.1W

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 18.1N 76.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.0N 79.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.6N 81.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.5N 83.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 27.5N 86.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 32.0N 88.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 36.1N 90.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 74.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z

FORECASTER AVILA


$$

[drudd1]

WTNT44 KNHC 070839
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU JUL 07 2005


THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE IN ORGANIZATION AND AN
EYE HAS BEEN OBSERVED INTERMITTENTLY ON IR IMAGES. THE OUTFLOW
CONTINUES TO BE WELL ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS AND IT IS QUITE
IMPRESSIVE ON THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...AND THIS IS NOT VERY COMMON
FOR CYCLONES IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...DUE TO COMMON INTERACTION
WITH THE MID-OCEANIC UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS TROUGH IS CURRENTLY
WEAKER THAN NORMAL. T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO 4.5 AND 5.0 ON THE
DVORAK SCALE. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE JUST MEASURED 87 KNOTS AT
FLIGHT LEVEL AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 970 MB. BASED ON THIS
INFORMATION THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 80 KNOTS.
DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF CENTRAL
AND WESTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE OCEAN IN THIS
REGION HAS A VERY HIGH HEAT CONTENT AND WITH THE PREVAILING LOW
WIND SHEAR...DENNIS COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITH 100 TO 105
KNOT WINDS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. THE LATEST
GFDL DOES NOT INTENSIFY DENNIS AS MUCH AS IN THE PREVIOUS
RUN BECAUSE IT KEEPS THE CIRCULATION OF THE HURRICANE OVER CUBA.

THE MOTION OF DENNIS CONTINUES TO BE CONTROLLED BY A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 300/13
AND THIS GENERAL TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD...
ALLOWING THE HURRICANE TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO. DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...
BRINGING THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS
AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/0900Z 17.0N 74.6W 80 KT
12HR VT 07/1800Z 18.1N 76.4W 85 KT
24HR VT 08/0600Z 20.0N 79.0W 100 KT
36HR VT 08/1800Z 21.6N 81.5W 105 KT
48HR VT 09/0600Z 23.5N 83.5W 105 KT
72HR VT 10/0600Z 27.5N 86.5W 105 KT
96HR VT 11/0600Z 32.0N 88.5W 70 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 12/0600Z 36.1N 90.5W 40 KT...INLAND


$$

[Thunder44]

Hurricane Dennis Intermediate Advisory Number 11a


Statement as of 8:00 am EDT on July 07, 2005



...Dennis strengthens to 105 mph...

a Hurricane Warning is in effect for the southwestern peninsula
of Haiti from the Dominican Republic border westward...all of
Jamaica...all of the Cayman Islands...and portions of eastern Cuba
for The Provinces of Granma...Santiago de Cuba...and Guantanamo.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for portions of central and
eastern Cuba for The Provinces of Sancti Spiritus...Ciego de
Avila...Camaguey...Las Tunas...and Holguin.

The Hurricane Warning and the Hurricane Watch for Cuba will likely
be extended westward later this morning.

Interests in the central and western Caribbean Sea should monitor
the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 8 am EDT...1200z...the center of Hurricane Dennis was located
near latitude 17.5 north...longitude 74.9 west or about 130
miles...205 km...east-southeast of Kingston Jamaica and about 165
miles... 265 km...south of Guantanamo Cuba.

Dennis wobbled toward the northwest around 10 mph...16 km/hr...over
the past few hours...but a generally west-northwestward motion near
13 mph...20 km/hr...is expected during the next 24 hours. On this
track...Dennis is expected to be over or very near Jamaica later
today.

Reports from an Air Force hurricane hunter plane indicate that the
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph...165
km/hr...with higher gusts. Dennis is now a category two hurricane
on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Additional strengthening is forecast
during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles... 35 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 125 miles...205 km.

Latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve
hurricane hunter plane was 968 mb...28.58 inches.

Dennis is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to
10 inches over southern Hispaniola...Jamaica...eastern Cuba...and
the Cayman Islands. Isolated maximum amounts of 15 to 20 inches are
possible over the mountainous terrain of Jamaica. These rains
could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
Repeating the 8 am EDT position...17.5 N... 74.9 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds...105
mph. Minimum central pressure...968 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
11 am EDT.

Forecaster Pasch/Knabb
$$

[Steve H.]

Ain't no wobble folks, been going on for the last 4 hours.

[cycloneye]

071431
TCMAT4
HURRICANE DENNIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042005
1500Z THU JUL 07 2005

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WATCHES AND WARNINGS WESTWARD. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW
IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...VILLA CLARA...
CIENFUEGOS...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS
TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO. A HURRICANE
WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINING PROVINCES OF CUBA
INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE
LA HABANA...AND HOLGUIN.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 11 AM EDT...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY. ALSO AT 11 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
IS ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM GOLDEN
BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST AND SOUTH OF BONITA BEACH ON THE
WEST COAST.

A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA
OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD...ALL OF
JAMAICA...AND ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 75.6W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 75NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT.......120NE 90SE 75SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 75.6W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 75.0W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 19.3N 77.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 75NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 21.3N 79.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 75NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 22.8N 81.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 75NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.7N 83.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 28.7N 86.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 33.5N 88.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 37.5N 90.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 75.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

FORECASTER PASCH