Dennis Advisorys

[Brent]

Hurricane Dennis Intermediate Advisory Number 9a

Statement as of 8:00 PM EDT on July 06, 2005

...Dennis continuing to become better organized to the
east-southeast of Jamaica...

a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Jamaica...the
southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the Dominican Republic border
westward...and portions of eastern Cuba for The Provinces of
Granma...Santiago de Cuba...and Guantanamo.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Cayman Islands and for
portions of central and eastern Cuba...for The Provinces of Sancti
Spiritus...Ciego de Avila...Camaguey...Las Tunas...and Holguin.
A Hurricane Warning will likely be issued for the Cayman Islands
later tonight.
At 8 PM EDT...0000z...the government of the Dominican Republic has
discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the southern coast of
the Dominican Republic. However...strong squalls will continue
tonight and may produce wind gusts to 40 mph.

Interests in the central and western Caribbean Sea should monitor
the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 8 PM EDT...0000z...the center of Hurricane Dennis was located
near latitude 16.3 north... longitude 72.9 west or about 280
miles... 455 km... east-southeast of Kingston Jamaica and about
295 miles... 470 km...south-southeast of Guantanamo Bay Cuba.

Dennis is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph...20 km/hr...
and this motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours.
On this track...Dennis will pass over or just east of Jamaica by
Thursday afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph...130 km/hr...with higher
gusts. This makes Dennis a category 1 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson scale. Additional strengthening is forecast during
the next 24 hours...and Dennis could become a category 2 hurricane
before it reaches Jamaica on Thursday.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles... 35 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 105 miles...165 km.

The minimum central pressure recently measured by an Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft was 984 mb...29.06 inches.

Dennis is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8
inches over southern Hispaniola...Jamaica...eastern Cuba...and the
Cayman Islands. Isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches are possible
over the mountainous terrain of Jamaica. These rains could produce
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

Repeating the 8 PM EDT position...16.3 N... 72.9 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 13 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 80 mph. Minimum central pressure... 984 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center
at 11 PM EDT.

Forecaster Stewart

[SurvivedIvan]

lol

[cycloneye]

lol

Explain more why that lol?

[chris_fit]

Another pressure drop and slowing down even more.

[Brent]

Hurricane Dennis Forecast/Advisory Number 10

Statement as of 03:00Z on July 07, 2005

At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the government of the Cayman Islands has
changed the Hurricane Watch to a Hurricane Warning for all of the
Cayman Islands.

A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for the southwestern peninsula
of Haiti from the Dominican Republic borderwestward...all of
Jamaica...all of the Cayman Islands...and portions of eastern Cuba
for The Provinces of Granma...Santiago de Cuba...and Guantanamo.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for portions of central and
eastern Cuba...for The Provinces of Sancti Spiritus...Ciego de
Avila...Camaguey...Las Tunas...and Holguin. A Hurricane Warning may
be required portions of the watch area Thursday morning.

Interests in the central and western Caribbean Sea should monitor
the progress of this system.

Hurricane center located near 16.5n 73.4w at 07/0300z
position accurate within 30 nm

present movement toward the west-northwest or 300 degrees at 13 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 980 mb
Max sustained winds 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt.
64 kt....... 20ne 0se 0sw 20nw.
50 kt....... 50ne 30se 10sw 40nw.
34 kt.......110ne 80se 30sw 100nw.
12 ft seas..100ne 100se 100sw 100nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 16.5n 73.4w at 07/0300z
at 07/0000z center was located near 16.3n 73.1w

forecast valid 07/1200z 17.6n 75.4w
Max wind 85 kt...gusts 105 kt.
64 kt... 20ne 10se 10sw 20nw.
50 kt... 50ne 40se 20sw 40nw.
34 kt...110ne 90se 40sw 100nw.

Forecast valid 08/0000z 19.2n 77.8w
Max wind 95 kt...gusts 115 kt.
64 kt... 25ne 15se 15sw 25nw.
50 kt... 60ne 50se 30sw 50nw.
34 kt...120ne 105se 60sw 110nw.

Forecast valid 08/1200z 20.7n 80.1w
Max wind 105 kt...gusts 130 kt.
64 kt... 25ne 15se 15sw 25nw.
50 kt... 60ne 50se 40sw 50nw.
34 kt...130ne 120se 80sw 120nw.

Forecast valid 09/0000z 22.2n 82.1w
Max wind 105 kt...gusts 130 kt.
50 kt... 70ne 60se 50sw 70nw.
34 kt...140ne 130se 100sw 140nw.

Forecast valid 10/0000z 25.0n 85.0w
Max wind 105 kt...gusts 130 kt.
50 kt... 80ne 80se 60sw 80nw.
34 kt...140ne 140se 110sw 140nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 11/0000z 28.5n 87.0w
Max wind 100 kt...gusts 120 kt.

Outlook valid 12/0000z 32.0n 88.5w...inland
Max wind 80 kt...gusts 100 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 16.5n 73.4w

next advisory at 07/0900z

[cycloneye]

[HurryKane]

Yikes, this new track has it landfalling a half day faster. There are going to be some very tense folks all over the GOM coast the next day or so.

[Brent]

Yikes, this new track has it landfalling a half day faster. There are going to be some very tense folks all over the GOM coast the next day or so.

It's always been Monday Morning for the landfall... 5pm might have been a tad slower(11am or Noon). Not much difference.

[Andy_L]

hey Dolphin....if i REALLY mess up in a major way....would you take BOTH of mine? first AND second born 14 and 16....i'll make it a MAJOR infraction if you'll take BOTH

[drezee]

Almost worst case track for Mobile, AL. Right up the bay...

[cycloneye]

WTNT34 KNHC 070241
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DENNIS ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED JUL 06 2005

...DENNIS CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY EAST-SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
CHANGED THE HURRICANE WATCH TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR ALL OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA
OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD...ALL OF
JAMAICA...ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA
FOR THE PROVINCES OF GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE
AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...AND HOLGUIN. A HURRICANE WARNING MAY
BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA THURSDAY MORNING.

INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 73.4 WEST OR ABOUT 245
MILES... 400 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 280
MILES... 455 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.

DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER OR JUST
EAST OF JAMAICA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS MAKES DENNIS A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND DENNIS COULD BECOME A STRONG CATEGORY 2
HURRICANE BY THE TIME IT REACHES JAMAICA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 125 MILES...205 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY A NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...EASTERN CUBA...AND
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF JAMAICA. THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...16.5 N... 73.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 980 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

[Ixolib]

What do the BLACK dots represent???

[Andy_L]

WOW...980 millibars. would that pressure not be indicative of higher wind speeds than 85MPH?

[mf_dolphin]

the Black dots are the Day 4 and Day 5 forecast positions. Those are subject to fairly large errors but they do give you a peek at what the NHC expects.

[HurryKane]

What do the BLACK dots represent???

Wunderground doesn't represent the intensity for those days past the three-day forecast for some reason...I don't know if that's their policy, or related to some other NHC reason.

[wxcrazytwo]

What do the BLACK dots represent???

I am still sticking towards the right of that model skimming the FL coastline..

[mf_dolphin]

hey Dolphin....if i REALLY mess up in a major way....would you take BOTH of mine? first AND second born 14 and 16....i'll make it a MAJOR infraction if you'll take BOTH

If you mess up that bad I'll send you my 4 Better toe the line from now on!

[canegrl04]

STRONG CAT 2 AS IT REACHES JAMAICA

[Ixolib]

Wunderground doesn't represent the intensity for those days past the three-day forecast for some reason...I don't know if that's their policy, or related to some other NHC reason.

the Black dots are the Day 4 and Day 5 forecast positions. Those are subject to fairly large errors but they do give you a peek at what the NHC expects.

Thanks ya'll!!

[Brent]

Black dots are simply the Day 4 and 5 position. Same color if it were a weak depression.

NHC has it at 100 kt at Day 4 and 80 kt at Day 5 though(Day 5 is pretty far inland as well )