Dennis forecast 3: Near Florida, but how close

Josephine96 · #21 Postby **Josephine96** » Wed Jul 06, 2005 8:38 pm

Thank you again Deena.. and I wasn't barking at you about the Tampa thing.. I meant that it would be making it's closest approach in the GOM.. 100 miles, 50, 20, however far out it is lol..

I'll keep observing.. and I don't mind publishing my opinions even if some seem a little out of wack..

Rainband · #22 Postby **Rainband** » Wed Jul 06, 2005 8:41 pm

Our forecasters say that we should be safe. The size of this storm is a concern but the trends westward are a good sign. Sorry if you were offended john. Didn't mean to come off that way,

#23 Postby **sweetpea** » Wed Jul 06, 2005 8:42 pm

feederband wrote:This year Florida needs to be in a No Hurricane Zone...I sorry that someone has to get this storm...Need to spread the damage we had more then our share last year...

Totally agree. Don;t want them here this year at all. I love to watch them but from a distance. It is just a shame that someone else has to deal with the destruction.

#24 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Wed Jul 06, 2005 8:49 pm

John, you can probably take this statement to the bank:

"My official forecast has Dennis making a bit of a northward jog and then accelerating as he approaches Alabama/Florida. With a landfall somewhere in the Panhandle to possibly as far east as the Big Bend area."

Josephine96 · #25 Postby **Josephine96** » Wed Jul 06, 2005 8:50 pm

Take it to the bank dixie..? what do you mean? lol

#26 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Wed Jul 06, 2005 8:56 pm

I mean that's where I think landfall will be -- close to the Big Bend area.

#27 Postby **Steve** » Wed Jul 06, 2005 8:59 pm

As what? A Cat 1? Tropical Storm? Do we have any real history to say that a storm coming up can hit that area with any force? Like I said earlier, Joe B. laid out his case today for why it never happens - too much dry air drawn in from the Peninsula and whatever the other point was. I ain't watching it again to see

Steve

flyingphish · #28 Postby **flyingphish** » Wed Jul 06, 2005 9:52 pm

A statecaster inference seems unecessary. This poster was trying to draw a Texas to Fl. threat parameter. This is valid in this situation. Just my two cents. And under the the terms of current uncertainty; the geographic parameter is valid also.

#29 Postby **TreasureIslandFLGal** » Wed Jul 06, 2005 11:12 pm

Take a look at the new GFS model run at 60 hours!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_060l.gif

All of John's nay-sayers may find themselves eating crow afterall!

John, good job on putting forth a well thought out forecast that was against the grain. Takes guts. Hopefully, as a Treasure Island resident, I hope your forecast is poop!!!!!!!!!! :eek:

jkt21787 · #30 Postby **jkt21787** » Wed Jul 06, 2005 11:15 pm

TreasureIslandFLGal wrote:Take a look at the new GFS model run at 60 hours!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_060l.gif

All of John's nay-sayers may find themselves eating crow afterall!

John, good job on putting forth a well thought out forecast that was against the grain. Takes guts. Hopefully, as a Treasure Island resident, I hope your forecast is poop!!!!!!!!!!

GFS still does landfall the storm in the Mobile area.

However, I have always said FL residents should pay attention, and I maintain that. I don't however see any reason to change current thinking of a LA to possiblly MS/AL landfall.

I still, as I said earlier, have the utmost respect for John. You never know, he could blow us all out of the water with his forecast!

#31 Postby **docjoe** » Wed Jul 06, 2005 11:52 pm

My gut feeling is a landfall due south of Milton and Pace Florida..Reasoning. I have so much to do this weekend...grass cut, car washed, etc!!!! And I have to work to top it off.

Just wanted to say as a long time lurker that I thoroughly enjoy reading everyones input and learn a little something new here everyday!!

docjoe

Dennis forecast 3: Near Florida, but how close

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