00:00z Tropical Model guidance=983 mbs,Moving 300 12kts

[jkt21787]

hey don't forget about the GFS...consistant for a couple of days now...Central LA

True, but its not plotted here obviously. We'll know in a few hours about its latest track.

You would never expect to use the GFS and consistent in the same sentence, would ya?

[jkt21787]

hey don't forget about the GFS...consistant for a couple of days now...Central LA

I agree.

NAM and Canadian are out to lunch, dinner, breakfast, lunch, dinner, breakfast, lunch, dinner....

Canadian I think has been having too much dessert as well.

[deltadog03]

hey don't forget about the GFS...consistant for a couple of days now...Central LA

I agree.

NAM and Canadian are out to lunch, dinner, breakfast, lunch, dinner, breakfast, lunch, dinner....

Canadian I think has been having too much dessert as well.

no, you sure wouldn't kevin..lol..but, did very very good with arlene and cindy

[Opal storm]

We will see many more shifts in the track for the next couple of days.I'm still pretty sure the models will bend back to the right towards MS/AL/FL.I know everyone will disagree with me on that but that's my opinion and i'm sticking with it so too bad!! It's just a gut feeling that this will take a more northern track through the Gulf.

[eye of the storm]

Here is an image of all the storms that passed within 50 nm of Dennis's current position.

[Stormcenter]

We will see many more shifts in the track for the next couple of days.I'm still pretty sure the models will bend back to the right towards MS/AL/FL.I know everyone will disagree with me on that but that's my opinion and i'm sticking with it so too bad!! It's just a gut feeling that this will take a more northern track through the Gulf.

I agree.

[Stratosphere747]

What concerns me is not so much the fact that they are trending west, but they do so with it staying on NHC's original path of going to the north of Jamaica.

Seemed most kept saying that it would have to more or less move south of Jamaica to make a more westerly movement. Even though Ivan did pass south of Jamaica, it was much later in the hurricane season.

History shows that the powerful cat 3/4 hurricanes threaten La/Tx. I hope for everyone's sake that something happens to seriously weaken this storm no matter who is threatened, if it indeed does strengthened like some forecast.

Edited to reprsent cat 3/4 hurricanes in the July timeframe..

[reeef]

come to texas i dont wana work this weekend

[Normandy]

NO NO stay away, i like my house!

[sunny]

We don't want it here!

[deltadog03]

What concerns me is not so much the fact that they are trending west, but they do so with it staying on NHC's original path of going to the north of Jamaica.

Seemed most kept saying that it would have to more or less move south of Jamaica to make a more westerly movement. Even though Ivan did pass south of Jamaica, it was much later in the hurricane season.

History shows that the powerful cat 3/4 hurricanes threaten La/Tx. I hope for everyone's sake that something happens to seriously weaken this storm no matter who is threatened, if it indeed does strengthened like some forecast.

Edited to reprsent cat 3/4 hurricanes in the July timeframe..

I agree with ya....and see even if it goes right through jamaica, then that means the models are too far north and they would have to be adjusted west correct??

[reeef]

lol normandy.. i live right on the water so my house would just be gone

[Weatherboy1]

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

I guess the models say it's going to lift up and out pretty quickly, allowing the ridge to rebuild and steer Dennis W. But on WV, that trough behind Cindy looks pretty formidable (and isn't that a shortwave diving toward its base out of TX or the Arkansas region?) As I understand things, once a storm gets within about 10 degrees of a trough, it starts to feel its impact, and within 8 degrees or so of latitude/longitude, it falls under its direct effect. These two features seem to be about 15 degrees apart right now. Maybe things will look completely different tomorrow, but I'm just curious how Dennis is ever going to get W of, say, the AL/FL border region with that kind of trough lingering.


-Mike

[Scott_inVA]

WOW, the models are really coming together now toward a central track..

Actually, no.

Generally good agreement until approach on Cuba.
After that, a spray from Florida to C LA.

The EC last night was the first to go more west then NW after landfall. This has been picked up by the 0Z hurricane models, shifting NW after landfall as well in response to HP to the NE.

Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA
http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm

[Scott_inVA]

hey don't forget about the GFS...consistant for a couple of days now...Central LA

True, but its not plotted here obviously. We'll know in a few hours about its latest track.

You would never expect to use the GFS and consistent in the same sentence, would ya?

Actually, with Dennis so far, I would
Just ran a quick analysis on the GFS contrasting the TC's actual track with the model output. Here's the link:
http://midatlanticwx.com/cyclone/model.png

Unlike typical GOM storm's where the model tends to run too far east (which was the right solution with Cindy), it now is a bit to the west of TPC/NHC. Not saying it comes in exactly as depicted (curiously, right where Cindy did) but looking at the model's actual mid/upper level output, I think it has the right idea.

Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA
http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm

[jkt21787]

hey don't forget about the GFS...consistant for a couple of days now...Central LA

True, but its not plotted here obviously. We'll know in a few hours about its latest track.

You would never expect to use the GFS and consistent in the same sentence, would ya?

Actually, with Dennis so far, I would
Just ran a quick analysis on the GFS contrasting the TC's actual track with the model output. Here's the link:
http://midatlanticwx.com/cyclone/model.png

Unlike typical GOM storm's where the model tends to run too far east (which was the right solution with Cindy), it now is a bit to the west of TPC/NHC. Not saying it comes in exactly as depicted (curiously, right where Cindy did) but looking at the model's actual mid/upper level output, I think it has the right idea.

Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA
http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm

Very interesting. Thanks!

[reeef]

HOLD UP.. i see this line west of the rest pointing to TEXAS where i live... what are you talking about inform me plase

[Air Force Met]

HOLD UP.. i see this line west of the rest pointing to TEXAS where i live... what are you talking about inform me plase

That's an older model run...

[reeef]

good =]