NWS Tampa Bay re: GFDL Hurricane Dennis....

[dixiebreeze]

West central and southwest Florida forecast discussion...corrected
National Weather Service Tampa Bay area - Ruskin Florida
107 PM EDT Wednesday Jul 6 2005

. more day of dry weather weather then increasing rain chances
for the weekend...

Short term (tonight - fri)...strong deep layered ridging which has
been providing unseasonably dry and hot conditions across the forecast area
the last few days will hold through Thursday keeping temperatures above
normal and rain chances well below normal (pops ~20%) with only
isolated shower/thunderstorm activity expected along the sea breeze
circulations during the afternoon hours.

During Thursday night and especially Friday and beyond all eyes will
be focused on tropical cyclone Dennis as it moves west northwest
through the northwest Caribbean...and into the southeastern Gulf during the
upcoming weekend. Developing easterly wind flow ahead of Dennis will
allow deeper moisture to spread into the region late Thursday and
Friday which will lead to increasing cloud cover and higher rain
chances with probability of precipitation increasing back toward climatology levels through the
period. Based on the latest model/TPC track of Dennis will increase
probability of precipitation into the likely category on Friday (~60%) far southern zones...
tapering back to 50% central areas...and 40% far north. In addition
will increase surface winds into the breezy category (15-20 miles per hour
range) during the afternoon far south...and 10-15 miles per hour elsewhere.
Beyond Friday the forecast will all hinge on the exact track of
Dennis so stay tuned. For additional information on Dennis see the
latest advisories being issued by the National Hurricane Center.
Temperatures will remain above normal on Thursday...then fall back to
normal on Friday as clouds and rain chances increase across the
forecast area.

Long term (fri night - wed)...Dennis is keeping several issues for
the extended forecast. While models are in fairly good agreement in
general regarding Dennis track and location by Saturday...GFDL wants
to bring the center of the cyclone closer to the Bay area...within
150 miles west of Tampa or so. Nevertheless the impact we are
confident about at this time is in the marine forecast. Seas and
winds are being increased in the grids for the marine afternoon
package. Inland locations will experience an increase in rain
starting Friday and sea breezes will likely disappear until next week
as strong easterly and southeasterly flow from Dennis circulation
approaches the eastern Gulf. Keep up with the latest bulletins issued
by the National Hurricane Center at http://www.NHC.NOAA.Gov.

Temperatures are lowered a couple of degrees from climatology during the weekend
as cloudiness associated to the rainbands of Dennis will likely keep
surface heating limited. Starting on Monday evening temperatures will return
to near normal values.

Marine...light southeast to southerly wind flow with slight seas
will continue tonight through Thursday as high pressure remains in
control. From Friday and into the upcoming weekend the forecast will
all hinge on the evolution and exact track tropical cyclone Dennis
takes. See the latest advisories on Dennis being issued by the
National Hurricane Center. Based on the current official track from
NHC...will ramp up wind and seas into the small craft range (winds
increasing to 20-25 knots with seas building into the 6-8 foot range)
for the central and southern outer waters beginning Friday night with
near tropical storm force gusts possible during late Saturday through
early Sunday with seas building into the 9 to 11 foot range as Dennis
moves west-nwwd over the Gulf. Similar to yesterday this forecast is
subject to change pending final proximity and eventual strength of
Dennis...so stay tuned to future forecasts over the next few days.

Fire weather...high temperature/dew point spreads will again support
humidity values dropping into the 40-45 percent range over interior
locations for a few hours Thursday afternoon. During Friday and into
the weekend moisture levels along with rain chances will be on the
increase across the entire region with no highlights expected at this
time.

Short term...McMichael
long term....reynes

[Rainband]

Thats from an old run Dixie

[Josephine96]

It's still from today.. the statement said 107 et lol

[Rainband]

Old run they come out frequently look at the run that just came out.