I am suprised of the left shift...
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
-
tampastorm
- Category 1
- Posts: 434
- Joined: Thu Aug 12, 2004 9:22 pm
- Location: TAMPA
I am suprised of the left shift...
Dennis seems to be making a distinct more north turn. I know this is forcasted. If this is not a wobble we can see a shift back left at 11.
0 likes
-
Rainband
-
tampastorm
- Category 1
- Posts: 434
- Joined: Thu Aug 12, 2004 9:22 pm
- Location: TAMPA
-
skysummit
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5305
- Age: 49
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:09 pm
- Location: Ponchatoula, LA
- Contact:
I do not see that distinct north turn. It's almost an illusion because of the colder cloud tops that are popping to the north of the center, but if you ignore the color and look at the entire CDO that's forming, it still looks to be going WNW to me. I know....everyone sees things differently though 
0 likes
-
deltadog03
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 3580
- Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:16 pm
- Location: Macon, GA
-
dixiebreeze
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5140
- Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 5:07 pm
- Location: crystal river, fla.
-
Anonymous
Oh I definately think it's going STRAIGHT north, right down the middle of Florida....OMG! I mean where else can it go, based on what all the models are saying....sheesh!
It has to go north because that is what many people see, because it's what they think, instead of looking at long term loops and models.
It has to go north because that is what many people see, because it's what they think, instead of looking at long term loops and models.
0 likes
-
Stratusxpeye
- Category 2
- Posts: 686
- Joined: Tue Jun 07, 2005 10:40 am
- Location: Tampa, Florida
- Contact:
Now maybe ill be right. Good for us here in the penninsula but bad for those ivan areas 
-
Opal storm
Opal storm wrote:The models will probably shift more to the right once Dennis starts turning more towards the NW/NNW in time.
If anything, the models will shift west. There is not enough weakness in the ridge because of Cindy to send this thing more North. The furthest east I see this going is the FL/AL border, likely near or west of NO or along the LA Coast.
FL residents should still watch it though.
0 likes
-
AL Chili Pepper
- Category 3
- Posts: 873
- Joined: Thu Aug 12, 2004 1:15 pm
- Location: Mobile, AL
-
Rainband
Calm down. I really hope you don't want this storm because thats what it sounds like.Big EZ wrote:Oh I definately think it's going STRAIGHT north, right down the middle of Florida....OMG! I mean where else can it go, based on what all the models are saying....sheesh!
It has to go north because that is what many people see, because it's what they think, instead of looking at long term loops and models.
0 likes
>>The models will probably shift more to the right once Dennis starts turning more towards the NW/NNW in time.
Interestingly, only the outlier models have a curving north landfall. The GFS kind of does, but it's not onto it yet. The other models (including globals and tropicals) bring Dennis in at a WNW or NWish heading. We don't see that many storms landfall that way along the northern Gulf (FL, MS, AL or LA though sometimes in Texas you do). Some of the runs (notably the GFS 60 hour precip) brings a train of rain all the way up into Western Arkansas and even some rain into Kansas which I think would be a stretch with almost any storm that didn't go into Texas and make its way up around the proverbial ring of fire if it's placed just so.
Steve
Interestingly, only the outlier models have a curving north landfall. The GFS kind of does, but it's not onto it yet. The other models (including globals and tropicals) bring Dennis in at a WNW or NWish heading. We don't see that many storms landfall that way along the northern Gulf (FL, MS, AL or LA though sometimes in Texas you do). Some of the runs (notably the GFS 60 hour precip) brings a train of rain all the way up into Western Arkansas and even some rain into Kansas which I think would be a stretch with almost any storm that didn't go into Texas and make its way up around the proverbial ring of fire if it's placed just so.
Steve
0 likes
-
Dean4Storms
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 6358
- Age: 62
- Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
- Location: Miramar Bch. FL
I'm not biting on the west of NO model runs. These same models also over reacted to the ridge to the east of Cindy and had her going to TX. We all saw what happened there, they were over emphasizing the ridging in the east and I believe they are doing it again.
In alot of these runs the height levels of the ridge along the east coast are not all that high and don't show them pushing across Florida which sends up a red flag in my book. My bet is a landfall between P'Cola and Biloxi with Mobile in the Target hairs.
In alot of these runs the height levels of the ridge along the east coast are not all that high and don't show them pushing across Florida which sends up a red flag in my book. My bet is a landfall between P'Cola and Biloxi with Mobile in the Target hairs.
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: KirbyDude25, Team Ghost and 555 guests