Trends and other notes on the 12Z model runs...

[gkrangers]

84 hours...12Z GFS is a good bit west of the 06Z position.

The troughing is less and the ridge is a little bit stronger.

Not that we should not be keeping an eye on Dennis AFM, but any reason for us to be taking more of a concern on em?

I think iti s a LA storm...we should always watch...but the ridging is setting up fairly far north for it to get this far west. Watch the model runs. If the ridging begins to move south out of the northern plains and WI/IL into southern IL/MO...then we need to pay more attention.

Which graphic do you use to identify the ridging? 500mb?

[ericinmia]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... 2005070612

NOGAPS shows a hit on the Pensecola area, with most of the storms convection lopsided into the armpit of florida. Tallahasee area.
-Eric

[Stormsfury]

the shift in the GFS at 102 hour point on the 12z run and the 6z 108 hour point is actually quite dramatic ... looks to be roughly 100 NM farther west IMHO ... and the other models are also trending farther west ...

this is very very similar to what we saw last year with ridging (and/or building ridging) not correctly being progged, and the models played catch up ...

SF

[Brent]

Looks like around Morgan City in about 120 hours.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_120l.gif

[LAwxrgal]

Mommy can I have a cookie?

Right front quadrant? Forget that, with that model I'm in the eyewall.

[gkrangers]

Mommy can I have a cookie?

Right front quadrant? Forget that, with that model I'm in the eyewall.

Probably a good thing given its 4-5 days out....hopefully it misses to the east...but if the ridge builds..then hopefully it continues trending west.

[Air Force Met]

Which graphic do you use to identify the ridging? 500mb?

In a storm like this...I use 500 abd 400mb's However, you always have to look up to 300 mb as well....especially if this will be a cat 3 or so.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Man, I am glad I am not going to be around for this one. Who would of thought go on vacation in Florida and it being a safer place this time, I THINK...

[LAwxrgal]

Mommy can I have a cookie?

Right front quadrant? Forget that, with that model I'm in the eyewall.

Probably a good thing given its 4-5 days out....hopefully it misses to the east...but if the ridge builds..then hopefully it continues trending west.

I do know that...but west will be bad too, which puts NOLA area in the right front quadrant, the worst part of the storm. Dennis is a large system, a lot of people will be impacted no matter where it actually hits.

[clfenwi]

NOGAPS Trend (00Z-12Z) WRT Dennis

60 hours - Maybe slightly more west heading, definitely more and tighter isobars.

72 hours - Again, maybe slightly more west heading.

84 hours - Very similar

96 hours - Slightly faster

108 hours - Faster, maybe a touch more west, center is say, a quarter of the way up the MS/AL state line. Point of landfall appears to be Mobile/Pensacola area.

Overall, a more intense appearance.

[LAwxrgal]

NOGAPS Trend (00Z-12Z) WRT Dennis

60 hours - Maybe slightly more west heading, definitely more and tighter isobars.

72 hours - Again, maybe slightly more west heading.

84 hours - Very similar

96 hours - Slightly faster

108 hours - Faster, maybe a touch more west, center is say, a quarter of the way up the MS/AL state line. Point of landfall appears to be Mobile/Pensacola area.

Overall, a more intense appearance.

Great...they don't need this either. They still have debris left from Ivan.

[clfenwi]

Canadian Trend (00Z-12Z)

24 hours - Already a noticable difference as it puts Dennis a bit more north and east (On the coast of Cuba north of eastern Jamaica)

36 hours - No bullseye, so it is tough to judge, but appears further east

48 hours - Definitely further east.... on the Florida Keys

60 hours - inland southern Florida, dramatically further east, and a bit more north.

72 hours - no resemblance whatsoever... center east of the Big Bend of Florida.

84 hours - over Georgia ....

Overall, this run appears to revert to ideas that the model had before the 00Z run...

72 hour image

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... hour=072hr

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM DENNIS ANALYSED POSITION : 15.2N 71.0W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042005



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 06.07.2005 15.2N 71.0W MODERATE

00UTC 07.07.2005 16.2N 73.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 07.07.2005 17.8N 75.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 08.07.2005 19.6N 78.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 08.07.2005 20.9N 80.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 09.07.2005 21.8N 82.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 09.07.2005 23.0N 84.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 10.07.2005 24.4N 85.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 10.07.2005 26.2N 86.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 11.07.2005 27.9N 88.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 11.07.2005 29.8N 89.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

00UTC 12.07.2005 32.2N 91.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 12.07.2005 33.9N 92.3W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY

UKMET trends more west.

[Opal storm]

I don't expect Dennis to make landfall anywhere west of N.O,the models will move back and forth from east to west but the track will pretty much stay the same.This is not a TX/SW LA event.

[cajungal]

Looks like around Morgan City in about 120 hours.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_120l.gif

If that verifies, I will be in northeastern eyewall. Morgan City is only 25 miles due west of here. That is where Andrew hit. And we had winds in excess of 100 mph here and it was very scary.

[swimaster20]

I don't expect Dennis to make landfall anywhere west of N.O,the models will move back and forth from east to west but the track will pretty much stay the same.This is not a TX/SW LA event.

Just wondering, but, do you have anything to back that up, and also can you explain your reasoning?

[jkt21787]

I don't expect Dennis to make landfall anywhere west of N.O,the models will move back and forth from east to west but the track will pretty much stay the same.This is not a TX/SW LA event.

Way to early to rule out anybody along the gulf coast. Hopefully people won't listen to that reasoning this early in the game.

[Rainband]

watch the trends. If compare all the models and there runs they are all shifting westward

[LSU2001]

Why is the NHC track and the GFDL almost always exactly the same??

But again I say that these are only models, these systems will not follow manmade mathematical models. The only way to know is to watch the things.
TIm

[gkrangers]

Because the NHC, for whatever reason, follows the GFDL closely.