official hurricane dennis - special update at 6pm edt

[HurryKane]

i wonder what she will be at the next advisory, looking very good on satellite

She'll be recovering from gender reassignment surgery, apparently

[gkrangers]

Hurricane Dennis Special Discussion Number 9

Statement as of 6:00 PM EDT on July 06, 2005


this special advisory is mainly to upgrade Dennis to a hurricane
based on a 79-kt 700 mb flight-level wind that was measured in the
northeast quadrant at 2127z on the outbound leg after passing
through the eye and measuring a central pressure of 985 mb. Wind
radii for 64-kt were included and the 50-kt radii were increased
slightly in the northern semicircle based on the new recon wind
data.

The initial motion estimate remains 295/12. There are no changes to
previous track forecast or reasoning.

No change was made to the previous intensity forecast. However...
recon and satellite data indicate Dennis has become much better
organized during the past couple of hours. If this trend continues
into this evening...then there is the possibility that rapid
intensification could occur for the next 24 hours or so...and
Dennis could reach category 2 hurricane strength before it passes
close to Jamaica in 24 hours.

Forecaster Stewart

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 06/2200z 16.1n 72.5w 70 kt
12hr VT 07/0600z 17.0n 74.3w 70 kt
24hr VT 07/1800z 18.4n 76.7w 80 kt
36hr VT 08/0600z 20.0n 79.1w 95 kt
48hr VT 08/1800z 21.4n 81.4w 100 kt
72hr VT 09/1800z 24.0n 84.5w 100 kt
96hr VT 10/1800z 27.5n 86.5w 100 kt
120hr VT 11/1800z 31.0n 88.0w 65 kt...inland

[Ivanhater]

oops, hope i didnt make HIM mad, lol

[Pebbles]

OH DANG... we even got a discussion! I'm in love with stewart!!! AND LOOKIE they mention Rapid Intensification! WOwzers!

[Ivanhater]

hmm they now have it at cat 2 before jamaica, does that change the strength later on?

[Pebbles]

hmm they now have it at cat 2 before jamaica, does that change the strength later on?

I would imagine so... but the NHC will probably remain conservative after the 48-72 hour mark as intensity forecasting is so difficult that far out. Specially with forecasting cat 4/5 storms.

[SkeetoBite]

Two maps provided for greater detail. Click for larger view:

[HurryKane]

OH DANG... we even got a discussion! I'm in love with stewart!!! AND LOOKIE they mention Rapid Intensification! WOwzers!

I saw him first. You're gonna have to fight me for him.

[canegrl04]

YIKES Dennis is a cane and he hasn't even entered the GOM yet.I gotta feeling he'll turn into a monster

[Pebbles]

OH DANG... we even got a discussion! I'm in love with stewart!!! AND LOOKIE they mention Rapid Intensification! WOwzers!

I saw him first. You're gonna have to fight me for him.

But...But... I thought we could SHARE

[HurryKane]

OH DANG... we even got a discussion! I'm in love with stewart!!! AND LOOKIE they mention Rapid Intensification! WOwzers!

I saw him first. You're gonna have to fight me for him.

But...But... I thought we could SHARE

Well....ok. And I won't tell your husband if you don't.

[birdwomn]

Have I told you recently how much I appreciate these maps when the storms get close to landfall? They are wonderful to assist people who are confused and afraid.
Thanks!

Two maps provided for greater detail. Click for larger view:

[jhamps10]

This one could get nasty real fast
the sat image I just saw on the weather channel's IR satellite close up of Dennis that an eye was trying to form, and that this storm keps getting stronger, and stronger. Now then again this is only from a satellite, but at 8, NHC might have to raise wind speed AGAIN, of course all depends on what RECON sees.

[dhweather]

000
WTNT74 KNHC 062156
SPFAT4
HURRICANE DENNIS SPECIAL PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
6 PM EDT WED JUL 06 2005

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 6 PM EDT...2200Z...THE CENTER OF DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.5 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT SAT JUL 9 2005

Code: Select all

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

18.4N  76.7W      47  X  X  X 47   W PALM BEACH FL    X  X  2  8 10
20.0N  79.1W       3 29  X  X 32   FT PIERCE FL       X  X  1  7  8
21.4N  81.4W       X 11 13  1 25   COCOA BEACH FL     X  X  X  6  6
MDCB 176N 714W    11  X  X  X 11   DAYTONA BEACH FL   X  X  X  5  5
MTPP 186N 724W    10  X  X  X 10   JACKSONVILLE FL    X  X  X  3  3
MTCA 183N 738W    53  X  X  X 53   KEY WEST FL        X  X 12  7 19
MKJP 179N 768W    45  X  X  X 45   MARCO ISLAND FL    X  X  4 11 15
MKJS 185N 779W    33  5  X  X 38   FT MYERS FL        X  X  2 11 13
MWCG 193N 814W     X 15  5  1 21   VENICE FL          X  X  1 12 13
MUGM 200N 751W    26  2  X  X 28   TAMPA FL           X  X  X 10 10
MUCM 214N 779W     1 25  X  X 26   CEDAR KEY FL       X  X  X  7  7
MUCF 221N 805W     X 12 12  1 25   ST MARKS FL        X  X  X  5  5
MUSN 216N 826W     X  3 17  2 22   APALACHICOLA FL    X  X  X  6  6
MUHA 230N 824W     X  1 17  4 22   PANAMA CITY FL     X  X  X  5  5
MUAN 219N 850W     X  X  8  9 17   PENSACOLA FL       X  X  X  3  3
MMCZ 205N 869W     X  X  1  7  8   MOBILE AL          X  X  X  2  2
MYEG 235N 758W     X  2  3  X  5   [b]GULFPORT MS        X  X  X  2  2[/b]
MYAK 241N 776W     X  3  6  2 11   BURAS LA           X  X  X  2  2
MYNN 251N 775W     X  X  4  3  7   GULF 29N 85W       X  X  X  8  8
MYGF 266N 787W     X  X  2  4  6   GULF 29N 87W       X  X  X  7  7
MMMD 210N 897W     X  X  X  2  2   GULF 28N 89W       X  X  X  5  5
MARATHON FL        X  X 12  6 18   GULF 28N 91W       X  X  X  2  2
MIAMI FL           X  X  5  8 13

COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM THU
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2PM THU TO 2AM FRI
C FROM 2AM FRI TO 2PM FRI
D FROM 2PM FRI TO 2PM SAT
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SAT
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER STEWART


$$

Look Ma! We Made It!!!!

[Windtalker]

I don't understand...... 47% chance of being 65 miles from West Palm Beach & 53% from Key West? Can someone please explain?

000
WTNT74 KNHC 062156
SPFAT4
HURRICANE DENNIS SPECIAL PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
6 PM EDT WED JUL 06 2005

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 6 PM EDT...2200Z...THE CENTER OF DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.5 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT SAT JUL 9 2005

Code: Select all

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

18.4N  76.7W      47  X  X  X 47   W PALM BEACH FL    X  X  2  8 10
20.0N  79.1W       3 29  X  X 32   FT PIERCE FL       X  X  1  7  8
21.4N  81.4W       X 11 13  1 25   COCOA BEACH FL     X  X  X  6  6
MDCB 176N 714W    11  X  X  X 11   DAYTONA BEACH FL   X  X  X  5  5
MTPP 186N 724W    10  X  X  X 10   JACKSONVILLE FL    X  X  X  3  3
MTCA 183N 738W    53  X  X  X 53   KEY WEST FL        X  X 12  7 19
MKJP 179N 768W    45  X  X  X 45   MARCO ISLAND FL    X  X  4 11 15
MKJS 185N 779W    33  5  X  X 38   FT MYERS FL        X  X  2 11 13
MWCG 193N 814W     X 15  5  1 21   VENICE FL          X  X  1 12 13
MUGM 200N 751W    26  2  X  X 28   TAMPA FL           X  X  X 10 10
MUCM 214N 779W     1 25  X  X 26   CEDAR KEY FL       X  X  X  7  7
MUCF 221N 805W     X 12 12  1 25   ST MARKS FL        X  X  X  5  5
MUSN 216N 826W     X  3 17  2 22   APALACHICOLA FL    X  X  X  6  6
MUHA 230N 824W     X  1 17  4 22   PANAMA CITY FL     X  X  X  5  5
MUAN 219N 850W     X  X  8  9 17   PENSACOLA FL       X  X  X  3  3
MMCZ 205N 869W     X  X  1  7  8   MOBILE AL          X  X  X  2  2
MYEG 235N 758W     X  2  3  X  5   [b]GULFPORT MS        X  X  X  2  2[/b]
MYAK 241N 776W     X  3  6  2 11   BURAS LA           X  X  X  2  2
MYNN 251N 775W     X  X  4  3  7   GULF 29N 85W       X  X  X  8  8
MYGF 266N 787W     X  X  2  4  6   GULF 29N 87W       X  X  X  7  7
MMMD 210N 897W     X  X  X  2  2   GULF 28N 89W       X  X  X  5  5
MARATHON FL        X  X 12  6 18   GULF 28N 91W       X  X  X  2  2
MIAMI FL           X  X  5  8 13

COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM THU
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2PM THU TO 2AM FRI
C FROM 2AM FRI TO 2PM FRI
D FROM 2PM FRI TO 2PM SAT
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SAT
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER STEWART


$$

Look Ma! We Made It!!!!

[HurricaneQueen]

Windtalker:

I think you are reading the chart incorrectly. There are two columns of numbers. The 47% and 53% numbers refer to the position noted to the left, not the right. The percentage for WPB is 10% and Key West is 19%.

Hope this is helpful.

Lynn

[Windtalker]

Windtalker:

I think you are reading the chart incorrectly. There are two columns of numbers. The 47% and 53% numbers refer to the position noted to the left, not the right. The percentage for WPB is 10% and Key West is 19%.

Hope this is helpful.

Lynn