18Z GFS - very like 0z, right of 12Z

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x-y-no
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18Z GFS - very like 0z, right of 12Z

#1 Postby x-y-no » Wed Jul 06, 2005 5:01 pm

Run is complete out to 60 hours. So far the track is more like the 0Z run than the 12Z (which was to the left). But the ridging looks stronger, so it may trend more left as it crosses the Gulf.
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Re: 18Z GFS - very like 0z, right of 12Z

#2 Postby chris_fit » Wed Jul 06, 2005 5:03 pm

x-y-no wrote:Run is complete out to 60 hours. So far the track is more like the 0Z run than the 12Z (which was to the left). But the ridging looks stronger, so it may trend more left as it crosses the Gulf.


can u provide a link?
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#3 Postby rainydaze » Wed Jul 06, 2005 5:03 pm

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=66370

Post model and trend information here.
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#4 Postby ericinmia » Wed Jul 06, 2005 5:07 pm

If it makes it north of Jamaica that would discredit this model. And on its current heading that seems very likely. This model was intialized with conditions prior to 2pm EDT so it wasn't aware of the new flight data or that the storms current heading is close to 300 (wnw-nw).
That will be a good point of verification, since the gfs shows Dennis running straight over Jamaica.
-Eric
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Re: 18Z GFS - very like 0z, right of 12Z

#5 Postby x-y-no » Wed Jul 06, 2005 5:11 pm

chris_fit wrote:
x-y-no wrote:Run is complete out to 60 hours. So far the track is more like the 0Z run than the 12Z (which was to the left). But the ridging looks stronger, so it may trend more left as it crosses the Gulf.


can u provide a link?


90 hours (18Z run)

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/fp0_090.shtml

96 hours (12Z run)

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/fp0_096.shtml

108 hours (0Z run)

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/fp0_108.shtml

18Z is faster than the 0Z, but similar track towards New Orleans.
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#6 Postby x-y-no » Wed Jul 06, 2005 5:12 pm

rainydaze wrote:http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=66370

Post model and trend information here.


OK, sorry, looked for that thread and didn't see it. Mods, if you want to lock this thread that's fine.
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#7 Postby Canelaw99 » Wed Jul 06, 2005 5:12 pm

I would think a sticky for the models thread would be handy :)
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#8 Postby jlauderdal » Wed Jul 06, 2005 5:14 pm

ericinmia wrote:If it makes it north of Jamaica that would discredit this model. And on its current heading that seems very likely. This model was intialized with conditions prior to 2pm EDT so it wasn't aware of the new flight data or that the storms current heading is close to 300 (wnw-nw).
That will be a good point of verification, since the gfs shows Dennis running straight over Jamaica.
-Eric


Excellent observation eric.
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