NWS Houston/Galveston Concerned:

[jasons2k]

From NWS HGX:

THE LATEST TPC COORDINATION CALL INDICATES TROPICAL STORM DENNIS MAY MAKE LANDFALL A LITTLE FARTHER WEST THAN EARLIER FORECASTS INDICATED. THE 12Z GFS TAKES THE STORM INTO LOUISIANA BETWEEN LAKE CHARLES AND NEW ORLEANS. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS STORM VERY CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS JUST IN CASE HE WANTS TO VISIT THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

[dwg71]

Well latest TPC projected path has it making landfall in AL, so they can relax, a little, for now.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Well. at least it's not the famous "Bears Watch."

[Johnny]

Oops, I just made a thread on this. Mods, feel free to delete mine if you wish.

[HouTXmetro]

From NWS HGX:

THE LATEST TPC COORDINATION CALL INDICATES TROPICAL STORM DENNIS MAY MAKE LANDFALL A LITTLE FARTHER WEST THAN EARLIER FORECASTS INDICATED. THE 12Z GFS TAKES THE STORM INTO LOUISIANA BETWEEN LAKE CHARLES AND NEW ORLEANS. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS STORM VERY CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS JUST IN CASE HE WANTS TO VISIT THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

Time will tell.

Well latest TPC projected path has it making landfall in AL, so they can relax, a little, for now.

They also had Cindy hitting Galveston.

[N2Storms]

.LONG TERM...SAT THROUGH WED.
THE BIG STORY FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE DENNIS. THE LATEST OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK FROM TPC SHOWS DENNIS MOVING INTO THE SE GULF OF
MEXICO FRI NIGHT AS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE, AND THEN PROGRESSING
NNWWD ACROSS THE ERN GULF OVER THE WEEKEND AT THE SAME INTENSITY,
WITH A LANDFALL NEAR PENSACOLA EARLY MON MORNING. WE USED THE TCM
TOOL TO POPULATE THE WIND GRIDS FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT AND
THEN BLENDED IN THE 06Z GFS AFTER THAT. WE WENT ABOVE MEX POPS FOR
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE EWD TPC TRACK FOR
DENNIS.



I guess the main thing that we can all take from this is that all GOMERS from S. Tex to Fla. West Coast need to monitor this very closely. It's just way too early to call...personally, I don't want Dennis or any other Cane to come my way (or yours wherever that may be), but it looks as thought Dennis is definitely going to be paying someone a visit early next week and we would all do well to prepare for the worst and hope for the best....

[jasons2k]

From NWS HGX:

THE LATEST TPC COORDINATION CALL INDICATES TROPICAL STORM DENNIS MAY MAKE LANDFALL A LITTLE FARTHER WEST THAN EARLIER FORECASTS INDICATED. THE 12Z GFS TAKES THE STORM INTO LOUISIANA BETWEEN LAKE CHARLES AND NEW ORLEANS. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS STORM VERY CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS JUST IN CASE HE WANTS TO VISIT THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

Time will tell.

Well latest TPC projected path has it making landfall in AL, so they can relax, a little, for now.

They also had Cindy hitting Galveston.

Exactly!

[bbadon]

THe conference call he is speaking of happens 1 hour before the advisory goes out. All the gulf coast NWS offices get together on a conference call with the Hurricane Center. The discuss different possibilities. If they are concerned then it was discussed as a possibility during the conference call. Just the fact they moved the track any west means this is the trend. They are not going to make big changes to the forecast track only subtle changes.

[baygirl_1]

Well latest TPC projected path has it making landfall in AL, so they can relax, a little, for now.

that's okay, alabama will share! unfortunately, we need to let our NWS office know cuz here's what our they are saying:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
215 PM CDT WED JUL 6 2005
REGULAR DISCUSSION FOR THE LONG TERM WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY. OH
GOODNESS...HERE COMES DENNIS. THE WEEKEND MAY TURN OUT TO BE A REAL HEADACHE FOR FOLKS ALONG THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST. HOPING DENNIS WONT BECOME A MENACE. STAY TUNED.

they were being cute with that one, but now...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
330 PM CDT WED JUL 6 2005

.LONG TERM...LATEST NHC FORECAST HAVE DENNIS A HURRICANE ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST MONDAY MORNING. GRIDDED DATA...HENCE FORECAST... IS BEING BASED ON NHC TRACK AT THE PRESENT TIME. THIS PLACES THE CENTER NEAR PENSACOLA FOR FORECAST PURPOSES...STILL A LOT OF TIME FOR CHANGES TO OCCUR IN THE TRACK AND THE FORECAST...BUT PLANS NEED TO BE MADE FOR A POSSIBLE LANDFALL IN THIS AREA.
MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED TO NEAR OR SOON WILL...TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. NO OTHER MARINE CONCERNS UNTIL THINGS START BUILDING UP WITH DENNIS.

[jasons2k]

This is from NWS DFW.

Incidentally, I think someone on another thread was asking about Joe B's forecast and why he think Dennis may end up affecting Denver of all places - this is basically the same reasoning:

OUTLOOK ON DENNIS...
EXTENDED MODELS COMING TO A CONSENSUS ON DENNIS...BRINGING THE STORM TOWARD WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE RIDGES. FINGER OF BERMUDA HIGH IN THE NE GULF SHOULD LEAD TO SUCH A SCENARIO...PLACING LANDFALL AT LEAST AS FAR WEST AS LOUISIANA. CERTAINLY TOO EARLY TO SAY...BUT MODEL AGREEMENT REMARKABLE THIS FAR OUT. RIDGE BUILDING NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES WOULD GET SQUEEZED SOUTHWARD AS EXTENSION OF SUBSIDENT ZONE TO EAST OF DENNIS. PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST
DENNIS WOULD THEN BE LODGED BETWEEN THIS AND THE SOUTHWEST RIDGE...BRINGING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO INLAND AREAS. THIS IS UNDOUBTEDLY MUSIC TO THE EARS OF RESIDENTS IN EXTREME DROUGHT ACROSS NE TEXAS...NW LOUISIANA...AND ARKANSAS.

[GalvestonDuck]

Oops, I just made a thread on this. Mods, feel free to delete mine if you wish.

Thank ya.

[dwg71]

From NWS HGX:

THE LATEST TPC COORDINATION CALL INDICATES TROPICAL STORM DENNIS MAY MAKE LANDFALL A LITTLE FARTHER WEST THAN EARLIER FORECASTS INDICATED. THE 12Z GFS TAKES THE STORM INTO LOUISIANA BETWEEN LAKE CHARLES AND NEW ORLEANS. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS STORM VERY CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS JUST IN CASE HE WANTS TO VISIT THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

Time will tell.

Well latest TPC projected path has it making landfall in AL, so they can relax, a little, for now.

They also had Cindy hitting Galveston.

Exactly!

Apples and oranges, Cindy was a very weak system with no agreeance with models. Dennis is better organized, with a fixed center and good model agreeance. This is not a TX event in most peoples eyes...

[southerngale]

Let them know what, baygirl?

[Stratosphere747]

Well for those of yall that get Jeff's email..

He did sound a bit concerned about the high that is dipping down from the Great Lakes..

Hopefully he will have his update out soon..He will explain far better than I ever could..

[baygirl_1]

Let them know what, baygirl?

sorry, southerngale, my typing is slow these days (right hand/wrist in brace) and my reply ended up being far removed from the post to which i was replying. i edited it to clarify.

[southerngale]

Let them know what, baygirl?

sorry, southerngale, my typing is slow these days (right hand/wrist in brace) and my reply ended up being far removed from the post to which i was replying. i edited it to clarify.

Ouch! Hope that heals quickly! I just wasn't sure what you meant. n/p

[N2Storms]

DENNIS IS CLOSELY FOLLOWING THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...WITH AN
ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION OF 295/12. WHILE THE OVERALL TRACK
FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED...SEVERAL OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT...OR WEST...AT DAYS THREE
THROUGH FIVE...TAKING DENNIS THROUGH THE CENTRAL RATHER THAN THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE LATER PORTION OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS ONLY ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT...SINCE IT IS PRUDENT NOT TO
MAKE LARGE CHANGES TO THE TRACK FROM ONE FORECAST PACKAGE TO THE
NEXT. SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE MAY VERY WELL SHIFT BACK TO THE
EAST LATER...AND FURTHER OFFICIAL FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS WILL WAIT TO
SEE HOW THE MODEL TRENDS EVOLVE.

FORECASTER KNABB/PASCH




They are pretty much confirming what a lot of posters on this board have been saying...the models are going to flip flop back and forth this far out...by Friday evening they will have a pretty good handle on Dennis' future movement...until then, it's all a crap shoot IMO...

[gatorcane]

It bothers me so much when people post something saying "it's heading towards my house in such-and-such." It's almost like they want to send a message about how hurricane-prone their particular area is or something or they want to get a reaction out of the people on this board.

BOTTOM-LINE: nobody will know until it gets into the GOM which won't be for a couple of days.

[PTrackerLA]

This is just sickening! I'm currently in Europe until the 15th and we have a possible major hurricane threatening my area. I don't have time to dig up my post but I predicted a big gulf storm for the first two weeks in July. I hope it stays far away from Louisiana but it would be just horrible if the AL/FL area had to endure another landfall. My thoughts will be with all my friends along the gulf coast during the next week. I just pray Dennis will spare us all .

[Stratosphere747]

It bothers me so much when people post something saying "it's heading toward my house in such-and-such." It's almost like they want to send a message about how hurricane-prone their particular area is or something or they want to get a reaction out of the people on this board.

BOTTOM-LINE: nobody will know until it gets into the GOM which won't be for a couple of days.

Chris, I don't see anyone posting anything along the lines of it heading toward "our" house.

It simply is a thread for the Houston area folks commenting on the fact that we nead to continue to keep an eye on Dennis, just like everyone else in the GOM...

Scott