Recon Reports Dennis

[dwg71]

But, it will go north of Jamaica, or at least skirt the eastern coast. New forecast will be out in a few minutes so maybe they will have it hook around the south of Jamaica and continue on it's current path, just to appease the "southies"...

[Derek Ortt]

the track is currently headed right toward Jamaica, right across the entire island in the same fashion as Gilbert

hope they ahve recovered from Ivan, because they are going to have yet another mess

[deltadog03]

i am not trying to jump down anyones throat...sorry about that...i agree there is some northward movement...i am just saying...NHC was wrong about it going north of jamica thats all...

Actually, you can't claim them wrong until he gets past Jamaica...

true..

[clfenwi]

yeah, and maybe only a 60-65 m.p.h. tropical storm at that

this does not represent weakening, just that the winds previously were much weaker (which probably should have been expected since background pressures in the Carib have been lower than normal this year)

Harkening back to the 11 AM discussion, it does seem that the SAB estimate was the better of the two.

[Scorpion]

I was just in Jamaica almost a month ago. Wish them the best. I wonder where the cruise lines will divert their ships.

[loon]

But, it will go north of Jamaica, or at least skirt the eastern coast. New forecast will be out in a few minutes so maybe they will have it hook around the south of Jamaica and continue on it's current path, just to appease the "southies"...

as much as you've bashed the "southies" as you call them, I suspect, since you will probably throw a party if/when it goes north or over J-land...that SHOULD he somehow transverse to the south, you will eat your due crow?

I've personally thought he has been a bit south of NHC track, but not by much. to me its a toss up on which side, or over, j-land it goes

[ALhurricane]

Well I am wrong...

NHC 5pm advisory has Dennis at 65 mph

So much for my theories...

[LAwxrgal]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I was listening to an esteemed poster here, and he says the entire future track (and/or US landfall) of Dennis is dependent upon how he handles Jamaica.

[senorpepr]

Well I am wrong...

NHC 5pm advisory has Dennis at 65 mph

So much for my theories...

I'm surprised too that they dropped the intensity. At least they are trying to be representative.

[Brent]

Well I am wrong...

NHC 5pm advisory has Dennis at 65 mph

So much for my theories...

I'm surprised too that they dropped the intensity. At least they are trying to be representative.

Why is the pressure so low? 987 mb is typically a hurricane.

[senorpepr]

Storm Name: DENNIS (04L)
Mission Number: 01
Flight ID: AF302
Observation Number: 14
Time: 2048Z
Latitude: 14.7°N
Longitude: 73.6°W
Location: 275 mi NNE of Barranquilla, Colombia
Turbulence: None
Flight condition: Clear
Pressure Altitude: 10000 feet
Flight level wind: WNW (290°) @ 38 mph
Temperature: 46°F
Dewpoint: 46°F
Weather: Rainshowers
700mb height: 10200 feet
Surface Wind: W (290°) @ 17 mph
Remarks: None

[LAwxrgal]

Well I am wrong...

NHC 5pm advisory has Dennis at 65 mph

So much for my theories...

I'm surprised too that they dropped the intensity. At least they are trying to be representative.

Why is the pressure so low? 987 mb is typically a hurricane.

The pressure is there. The winds have to catch up, and I think they're going to before the night is over.

[drezee]

797
UZNT13 KNHC 062136
XXAA 57217 99160 70724 04462 99985 26804 17009 00633 ///// /////
92558 24203 20509 85299 20613 18510 70967 13621 19510 88999 77999
31313 09608 82119
61616 AF302 0104A DENNIS OB 16
62626 EYE SPL 1603N07239W 2124 MBL WND 19510 AEV 20507 DLM WND 20
009 984736 WL150 18513 082 =
XXBB 57218 99160 70724 04462 00985 26804 11850 20613 22734 16431
33696 13020
21212 00985 17009 11969 19513 22958 20512 33951 21007 44904 21010
55895 19505 66870 17511 77850 18510 88818 21010 99762 21012 11736
23012 22696 19510
31313 09608 82119
61616 AF302 0104A DENNIS OB 16
62626 EYE SPL 1603N07239W 2124 MBL WND 19510 AEV 20507 DLM WND 20
009 984736 WL150 18513 082 =

16.0N 72.4W
985mb

[chris_fit]

797
UZNT13 KNHC 062136
XXAA 57217 99160 70724 04462 99985 26804 17009 00633 ///// /////
92558 24203 20509 85299 20613 18510 70967 13621 19510 88999 77999
31313 09608 82119
61616 AF302 0104A DENNIS OB 16
62626 EYE SPL 1603N07239W 2124 MBL WND 19510 AEV 20507 DLM WND 20
009 984736 WL150 18513 082 =
XXBB 57218 99160 70724 04462 00985 26804 11850 20613 22734 16431
33696 13020
21212 00985 17009 11969 19513 22958 20512 33951 21007 44904 21010
55895 19505 66870 17511 77850 18510 88818 21010 99762 21012 11736
23012 22696 19510
31313 09608 82119
61616 AF302 0104A DENNIS OB 16
62626 EYE SPL 1603N07239W 2124 MBL WND 19510 AEV 20507 DLM WND 20
009 984736 WL150 18513 082 =

16.0N 72.4W
985mb

I'll bet $5 it'll be down to 980 by 11pm

[Lowpressure]

Doubt recon stay there that long. It may be 980, but it will be estimated at that point. Tomorrows flight will be interesting. I think sunrise will bring us a solid hurricane with a well defined eye. This is not good for Jamaica.

[senorpepr]

Storm Name: DENNIS (04L)
Mission Number: 01
Flight ID: AF302
Observation Number: 15
Time: 21:20:00Z
Latitude: 16°N
Longitude: 72.4°W
Location: 179 mi S of Port-au-Prince, Haiti
Minimum height at NA mb 2965 m
Maximum flight level wind: WNW (298°) @ 43 mph
Distance and bearing from center to max flight level wind: 16 mi SW (219°)
Sea level pressure: 985 mb
Max flight level temperature outside the eye: 48°F at 9987 feet
Max flight level temperature inside the eye: 57°F at 10023 feet
Dewpoint temperature inside the eye: 48°F
Eye character: NA
Eye shape: NA
Eye diameter: NA
Fix determined by: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature at Surface
Navigation / Met Accuracy: 0.02 / 3 nm
MAX FL WIND 58 KT N QUAD 18:07:50 Z
SPIRAL BAND RADAR PATTERN. FIX POSN APPROX 2 MILES SE OF 700 MB WIND CTR

[drezee]

SHORTLY BEFORE 527 PM EDT...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED A
FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 79 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT ON THEIR
OUTBOUND LEG...WHICH EQUATES TO A SURFACE WIND OF ABOUT 71 KT.
A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 985 MB WAS ALSO MEASURED. BASED ON THIS
INFORMATION...DENNIS IS BEING UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE AND A
SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 6 PM EDT.

[Normandy]

Pressure is falling..........

[chris_fit]

SHORTLY BEFORE 527 PM EDT...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED A
FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 79 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT ON THEIR
OUTBOUND LEG...WHICH EQUATES TO A SURFACE WIND OF ABOUT 71 KT.
A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 985 MB WAS ALSO MEASURED. BASED ON THIS
INFORMATION...DENNIS IS BEING UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE AND A
SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 6 PM EDT.

[senorpepr]

Storm Name: DENNIS (04L)
Mission Number: 01
Flight ID: AF302
Observation Number: 18
Time: 2149Z
Latitude: 17.2°N
Longitude: 71.1°W
Location: 124 mi SE of Port-au-Prince, Haiti
Turbulence: None
Flight condition: In & out of clouds
Pressure Altitude: 10000 feet
Flight level wind: SE (140°) @ 48 mph
Temperature: 45°F
Dewpoint: 45°F
Weather: Overcast Skies
700mb height: 10300 feet
Surface Wind: E (110°) @ 52 mph
Remarks: None