FSU headed to play Key West?

[DESTRUCTION5]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/DENNIS.track.png

Something is tugging Dennis in the FSU Ensamble..

[gkrangers]

Movement is way too far north initially.

[Tallygrl]

That's not the fsu superensemble-- its the mm5 -- the fsu superensemblemodel is not avalible to the public.....although they give it to the NHC

[nolecaster]

what she said.....

[dwg71]

Dont let Normandy see that, he'll flip with it moving that far north of Jamaica..

[loon]

mm5 has been north of Jamaica I thought

[Tallygrl]

Anyone know what the fsu superensemble is showing?? I think last year there was a nice FSU met student who gave us the scoop a time or two....

[ericinmia]

That's not the fsu superensemble-- its the mm5 -- the fsu superensemblemodel is not avalible to the public.....although they give it to the NHC

He didn't claim it to be, there are many enseble forecast models out there. Fsu outputs a few that are only ensemble copmilations, heck, event the gfs technically is an ensemble of all its model runs.
-Eric

[Derek Ortt]

THATS NOT THE SUPER ENSEMBLE!

For the 1 trillionth time, its a poor version of MM5

[DESTRUCTION5]

THATS NOT THE SUPER ENSEMBLE!

For the 1 trillionth time, its a poor version of MM5

LOL..Dam Ortt...

[wxcrazytwo]

THATS NOT THE SUPER ENSEMBLE!

For the 1 trillionth time, its a poor version of MM5

AS I THROW FREEZING SUB ZERO ICE ON DEREK. HOW NOW BROWN COW..

[BreinLa]

Okay Derek, breathe in then breathe out. It's gonna be a long week buddy. No need to get fussy now. Think Happy thoughts!!!!!!

[Dean4Storms]

I believe I heard that the FSU SE was pretty much in line with what the UKMET was forecasting on two runs, 18z yesterday and 00z this morning.

[DESTRUCTION5]

All I know Is for being a Crummy MM5 model it Nailed the 1st 3 storms of the season..

[lurkerinthemidst]

Ortt - LOL - Maybe you should set up an auto response to anything that says FSU or MM5

Or you are going to become a broken record.

[Derek Ortt]

for one, the only MM5 that nailed Cindy was the UM version. It correctly insisted upon no well-defined center until it reached the NGOM. Even as all other models indicated landfall in Texas initially, UM MM5 correctly indicated a landfall new New Orleans with significant intensification near the coast. FSU was in the Texas bandwagon

[Rainband]

seems like the models last year had a right basis this year a left basis from what I have been reading. What cause this and what can be done in the future to help them become more accurate??

[Canelaw99]

for one, the only MM5 that nailed Cindy was the UM version. It correctly insisted upon no well-defined center until it reached the NGOM. Even as all other models indicated landfall in Texas initially, UM MM5 correctly indicated a landfall new New Orleans with significant intensification near the coast. FSU was in the Texas bandwagon

Well, that's because we all know UM is better than FSU

[Canelaw99]

seems like the models last year had a right basis this year a left basis from what I have been reading. What cause this and what can be done in the future to help them become more accurate??

Maybe they overcorrected this year because of last year? Not sure how the models work, but there was quite a right bias, so it makes sense if the programs can be tweaked, that they had to tweak it to go more left, hence the left bias this year.....???

[Wthrman13]

That's not the fsu superensemble-- its the mm5 -- the fsu superensemblemodel is not avalible to the public.....although they give it to the NHC

He didn't claim it to be, there are many enseble forecast models out there. Fsu outputs a few that are only ensemble copmilations, heck, event the gfs technically is an ensemble of all its model runs.
-Eric

I replied to this in another thread. The operational GFS is NOT an ensemble compilation or average. They run a separate GFS ensemble system at NCEP that uses perturbed initial conditions. The GFS model output you see is from the deterministic (single run) operational GFS.