My thinking on Dennis

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This thing is still a tropical storm. Its has not developed a soild Cdo. In fact a outter band over the eastern side is sucking the Energy from the core of this system. There is many a thing going for it.

1# Low upper level shear
2# Bath water seasurface temperatures
3# nice banding/classic hurricane formation pattern

Things going against it?
1# A rainband on the Eastern side is taking all the punch from the core.
2# Hati...In which case later today when the winds/flow moves up those mountains expect even more energy to be tooken away from the core.
3# If it moves between Jamaica/Cuba alot of the cirualtion will be overland.

So a outter band is taking energy for now(No oreganized cdo unlike Cindy). Tomarrow morning is the best chance for this to get to hurricane. Then we got to watch it has it is moving between Jamaica/Cuba. After that expect it to bomb into a cat3 at least as it inners hot water/low shear south of Cuba.

So yes this will become a hurricane. But not at 5pm or maybe not at 11pm. You need to watch it carefully. But the fact is that it is not pinpointed down. In is not even a hurricane. So take it seriously at this moment.


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Normandy]

I dont know man, 989 mb is cuttin it close

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yeah they found 58 knots flight level over the northern quad. They need to find at least 80 knots before upgrading(Arlene told me that)

[tallbunch]

where do you think he will go matt?

[Normandy]

Yeah they found 58 knots flight level over the northern quad. They need to find at least 80 knots before upgrading(Arlene told me that)

It was in the northern quid, which doesnt look to be the strongest of them at the moment....i want an eastern quad measurement.

[jkt21787]

Yeah they found 58 knots flight level over the northern quad. They need to find at least 80 knots before upgrading(Arlene told me that)

They just got there. They could easily find higher winds in the next few passes.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Tomarrow morning around 5am it should start to wrap it self together.

[Normandy]

Mmmm i think it might be a cane sooner than that.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

That northwestern quad looks very disoreganized. The Eastern side of the system has all the oreganized convection. The 85h data shows that it doe's not have a eye. Also Arlene had 989 pressure but was not a hurricane.

[Normandy]

Arlene had 990 i thought, and recon reported a ragged eye that was open to west....so it does have an eye.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005

LAST MINUTE INFORMATION FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER REQUIRED SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WORKING FORECAST TRACK. RECON FOUND A PRESSURE
OF 989 MB IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE A NEW BUT STRONGER LOW-LEVEL VORTEX
THAT DEVELOPED BENEATH A DEEP CONVECTIVE BURST THAT HAS BEEN
ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE EAST AND NORTH SIDE OF THE LARGER
CYCLONIC GYRE. I AM NOT READY TO KEY IN ON THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION OF THAT CIRCULATION DURING THE PAST 3 HOURS...SO THE INITIAL
POSITION AND MOTION OF 330/14 IS A LONGER TERM BLEND OF RECON AND
SATELLITE POSITIONS AND MOTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KT IS
BASED ON 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 75 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUAD.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK DUE TO THE MORE WESTWARD INITIAL POSITION... AND
SUBSEQUENT TRACKS MAY HAVE TO BE SHIFTED A LITTLE MORE TO THE WEST
IF THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TREND CONTINUES FOR ANOTHER 6
HOURS. HOWEVER...MY FEELING IS THAT SOME SIGNIFICANT WOBBLING WILL
OCCUR ALONG A GENERAL NORTH-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNTIL
LANDFALL OCCURS. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO VERTICAL SHEAR AND
OCCASIONAL INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR ERODING THE DEEP CONVECTION AND
CAUSING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER TO CONSTANTLY REFORM NEAR NEW
CONVECTIVE BURSTS. THIS TRACK IS CONSISTENT WITH THE NHC MODEL
CONSENSUS AND THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW.

TIMING THE VARIOUS CONVECTIVE BURSTS IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE. HOWEVER
...ARLENE WILL BE GOING INTO THE CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM PERIOD LATER
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...SO SOME NEW DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD
REDEVELOP NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND POSSIBLY ALLOW THE CYCLONE
TO BECOME A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE. HOWEVER...SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AS ARLENE APPROACHES THE
GULF COAST...SO SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY SHOULD BE EXPECTED.

FORECASTER STEWART


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/0300Z 27.1N 86.1W 60 KT
12HR VT 11/1200Z 28.7N 87.0W 65 KT
24HR VT 12/0000Z 31.0N 88.0W 55 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 12/1200Z 33.5N 88.0W 30 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
48HR VT 13/0000Z 37.0N 87.6W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
72HR VT 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND



Also Bret had a closed 3 nmi wide eye(Yes closed) Arlene also had almost a closed eye to.

[jrod]

There is a ring of strong convection that keep wrapping around, the center of circulation. Charlie had one of those for part of his life. There was an eye briefly this morning, i saw that. It is not over the super warm waters yet.

Anyone wanna explain why the northwest quadrant is eroded?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The last few Ir satellite frames. Show that a cdo is forming over the Center of Dennis. Now that we got a oreganizing central core/cdo the chances RI development has went up greatly. It maybe getting fairly close to a hurricane now if so. I still think that the nhc will hold off intill 11pm.