Tropical Storm Dennis

[jax]

Just go to the last page for the latest and forget the first pages.Anyway when Dennis is classified as a hurricane a new thread about hurricane Dennis will be posted.

this one thick dense thread had 10 great individual treads...
IMHO...

[cycloneye]

2 PM EDT advisory in a few minutes will be posted.

[cycloneye]

WTNT34 KNHC 061758
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DENNIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT WED JUL 06 2005

...OUTER RAINBANDS OF DENNIS BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER SOUTHERN COAST
OF HISPANIOLA...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
WESTWARD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND FOR
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA...FOR THE PROVINCES OF SANCTI
SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...
SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN.

INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DENNIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 72.0 WEST OR ABOUT
ABOUT 350 MILES... 565 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH ...25
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...DENNIS WILL BE NEAR JAMAICA EARLY
THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND DENNIS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS EN ROUTE TO
INVESTIGATE DENNIS THIS AFTERNOON.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES
...140 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.

DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...EASTERN CUBA...AND THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF JAMAICA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...15.7 N... 72.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 991 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB/PASCH

[gkrangers]

No change.

5PM will be more interesting, since we'll have recon by then.

[cycloneye]

The only change apart from the positions is the motion that is down to 14 mph.

[wx247]

I am curious if this slow down will be apart of a slight turn more toward the NW or if it is just wanting to take its time. I guess only time will tell.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM DENNIS CENTERED NEAR 15.7N 72.0W OR ABOUT 350
MILES ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AT 06/1800 UTC MOVING WNW 12 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED 60 KT GUSTS TO 75 KT. SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. THE SATELLITE REPRESENTATION OF DENNIS SHOWS TWO
WELL-DEFINED CONVECTIVE BANDS...ONE OVER THE E SEMICIRCLE WITHIN
150 NM OF THE CENTER AND THE OTHER WITHIN 90 NM S SEMICIRCLE.
NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN
67W-77W. MOST OF THE HEAVY RAINS ARE CURRENTLY OVER THE OPEN
WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN...BUT SOME OF THE SPIRAL BANDS ARE
BEGINNING TO SPREAD ALONG THE SRN COAST OF HISPANIOLA. THE
STRONGEST CONVECTIVE BURST IS CURRENTLY NE OF THE CENTER DUE TO
AN OUTFLOW JET EMANATING FROM THE NE QUADRANT TO THE SE...AND IF
THIS CLUSTER MOVES TO THE N/NW IT COULD PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINS
AND FLOODING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO HURRICANE STRENGTH
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AND WILL BE APPROACHING JAMAICA TOMORROW
MORNING. THE HEAVY RAINS WILL SPREAD OVER JAMAICA AND ERN CUBA
LATER THIS EVENING AND THEN ACROSS THE REST OF CUBA AND THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS ON THU.

The above is from the discussion at 2:05 PM EDT from TPC.

[rtd2]

CBS news is Reporting Dennis is now a Hurricane?

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM DENNIS (AL042005) ON 20050706 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050706 1800 050707 0600 050707 1800 050708 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.7N 71.9W 16.8N 74.4W 18.0N 76.8W 19.3N 79.1W
BAMM 15.7N 71.9W 17.1N 74.6W 18.5N 77.2W 19.7N 79.7W
A98E 15.7N 71.9W 16.8N 74.1W 17.9N 76.3W 19.2N 78.3W
LBAR 15.7N 71.9W 16.8N 74.2W 18.2N 76.6W 19.6N 79.2W
SHIP 60KTS 68KTS 78KTS 87KTS
DSHP 60KTS 68KTS 78KTS 87KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050708 1800 050709 1800 050710 1800 050711 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 20.4N 81.3W 22.8N 85.0W 25.7N 88.6W 29.8N 92.5W
BAMM 20.9N 82.0W 23.1N 85.8W 25.6N 89.1W 29.0N 92.3W
A98E 21.1N 80.4W 23.8N 85.0W 27.3N 88.2W 31.6N 90.0W
LBAR 21.1N 81.4W 24.8N 85.2W 28.7N 88.4W 31.5N 91.9W
SHIP 94KTS 103KTS 101KTS 90KTS
DSHP 94KTS 99KTS 97KTS 63KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.7N LONCUR = 71.9W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 14.7N LONM12 = 69.7W DIRM12 = 289DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 13.7N LONM24 = 67.2W
WNDCUR = 60KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 55KT
CENPRS = 990MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 90NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 25NM RD34NW = 75NM


18:00z model plots.Refresh grafic.Waiting for recon to confirm if it is a hurricane or not.Ship backs down a tad on intensity.

[wx247]

Luis, I think you forgot the graphic.

Leave it to CBS news to make things up.

[Brent]

18z UKMET is directly over the Mouth of the Mississippi and New Orleans.



http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_04.gif

[jhamps10]

CBS news is Reporting Dennis is now a Hurricane?

Really eh, well look at what they did about Pres. Bush
Not believing it till I get word from NHC

[rtd2]

Luis, I think you forgot the graphic.

Leave it to CBS news to make things up.

Who knows...Thats why I posted..Just heard it On WWL-NOLA! Said it was 75mph

[cycloneye]

Refresh the grafic to get the 18:00z run.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looking at visible/Ir satellite shows that this has not developed a soild Cdo as of yet. In also what ever it has formed the cloud tops have warmed near the center. A big band to the east has flared up. In which is most likely sucking the energy from the core area. 85h data also confirms that Dennis doe's not have a eye. I expect later tonight as that eastern band weakens the core will likely start tighting up. In which case a hurricane at 5am. In a cat2 hurricane by 5pm tomarrow. So thats my thinking.

[rtd2]

Well WWL-NOLA Did it AGAIN! on there 2PM news update they Said Dennis has been Upgraded to 'cane 1..WTH?

[frederic79]

Much more symetrical structure to Dennis than 4 hours ago. I expect upgrade at 5.

[Andrew92]

Well WWL-NOLA Did it AGAIN! on there 2PM news update they Said Dennis has been Upgraded to 'cane 1..WTH?

My local CBS affiliate also claimed that Arlene never entered Michigan, even though it rained there all day that day and was humid.

(Arlene DID pass through Michigan)

But I do think Dennis may be a hurricane now.

-Andrew92

[Anonymous]

I am starting to think that as well. The pressure is dropping.

[Canelaw99]

OK - so here's a question because I"m trying to learn the way these things interact....

According to the latest water vapor, there's a loooonnnnggggg tail extending through the Gulf from Cindy. Won't that continue to move east as her remnants do? If so, what effect will that have on Dennis? Was this tail expected to drape that far through the Gulf?

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

Thanks!!!