LA mets getting serious..

[HollynLA]

I've never seen out local mets speak this way about a storm that is 5 days out. Usually, mets will mention it and say to watch it carefully, but this time, with Dennis, they are really anxious. David Bernard, John Gumm, Bruce Katz, and good ol' Bob are already talking about evacuations starting Saturday and they are obviously very worried which makes me even more worried. Kind of reminds me of '02 with Isadore and then Lili. Only N.O. dodged Lili at the last minute. I know this storm's track is not set in stone, but I've just never seen out mets behave this way before.

[bbadon]

Evacs will more than likely start Saturday because of the new contraflow plan. Up to 50 hrs before the onset of gale force winds.

[Wpwxguy]

This is true, they are really in gear up mode. They usually do play it off until the last minute or at least until its in the Gulf. Fact is there is strong guidance support for a northern Gulf landfall. A couple have already said that we need to complete preparations for a hurricane landfall. And they would expect a watch to be issued for the northern Gulf Coast to Florida panhandle as early as Saturday morning. Wow. It really is concerning.

[bfez1]

Quote from local met here:

Folks. I'm really sorry. John didn't get back in town until yesterday evening. We were really short staffed and I just could not keep up with the forum.

That being said, John is catching up on sleep and I want to put the word out on Dennis.

We have a very short window between storms. You must be taking storm precautions, now. Realize that watches and warnings could go up as soon as early Saturday morning with possible evacuation scenarios developing.

As for the track, it's too early to tell. We all can see the models and yes it looks bad.

I think if the storm accelerates it might actually help spare us. Otherwise a storm moving at 15 mph with a gradual slowing will likely take the track further west (not good).

Everyone needs to make sure they know what they need to do.

We are reviewing our major hurricane plans, are you?

More later...

David Bernard
Meteorologist
WWL-TV
1024 North Rampart Street
New Orleans, LA 70116

[Wpwxguy]

And I believe Dennis is slowing somewhat, in regards to what David said about a slowing storm. Any implications on future movement? I don't know.

[cajungal]

Took my mom out to eat at Sicillys in Houma as a day late birthday gift. Guess what the talk of the restaraunt about? You guessed it. DENNIS

[HollynLA]

I did see David's message. I keep up with the wwl boards but have never posted. Tomorrow is his last day with us

[Steve]

Major hurricane plan? Buy a carton of cigs. Get a couple of cases of beer. Get extra ice to keep said beer cold. Buy many bags of chips and nuts and perhaps something hearty and low in sodium like Campbells Chunky Soup (yeah right), get some water, fill up the tubs and washing machine, buy dogfood, find my hatchet in case I need to chop through my roof, make sure my wife and kids are outta hea'.

Sounds like a plan

Oh yeah, the mets. Well they're going to try to utilize the credibility they earned by staying up all night covering their respective butts from downplaying Cindy and do the right thing in recommending evacuations. I'm not going anywhere personally so it doesn't matter to me, but most of all - contraflow or not - I ain't sitting in 12 hours of traffic hell to nowhere.

Steve

[HollynLA]

Major hurricane plan? Buy a carton of cigs. Get a couple of cases of beer. Get extra ice to keep said beer cold. Buy many bags of chips and nuts and perhaps something hearty and low in sodium like Campbells Chunky Soup (yeah right), get some water, fill up the tubs and washing machine, buy dogfood, find my hatchet in case I need to chop through my roof, make sure my wife and kids are outta hea'

Oh, that reminds me of when Andrew skirted on through here, we were without power for 9 days! Since we have a well here, which runs from electricity, not water for baths or anything. Not fun to say the least and not to mention..... HOT!

[Stormcenter]

I did see David's message. I keep up with the wwl boards but have never posted. Tomorrow is his last day with us

I actually read on WWL's weather forum that he is staying until the Dennis "possible" threat has passed.

[CA _Tracker]

With the ground already saturated from Alex and Cindy, Gulf Coast residents need to take heed of these forecasts. Things could get ugly quickly if rain showers have howhere to drain.

[zoeyann]

I'm glad David is staying through this. I trust his predictions.

[loon]

Gosh Matt...you take all the fun out of it...

edit: hrm, matt deleted his post, but CM got it! hahhaha

[CajunMama]

This thing is still a tropical storm. Its has not developed a soild Cdo. In fact a outter band over the eastern side is sucking the Energy from the core of this system. There is many a thing going for it.

1# Low upper level shear
2# Bath water seasurface temperatures
3# nice banding/classic hurricane formation pattern

Things going against it?
1# A rainband on the Eastern side is taking all the punch from the core.
2# Hati...In which case later today when the winds/flow moves up those mountains expect even more energy to be tooken away from the core.
3# If it moves between Jamaica/Cuba alot of the cirualtion will be overland.

So a outter band is taking energy for now(No oreganized cdo unlike Cindy). Tomarrow morning is the best chance for this to get to hurricane. Then we got to watch it has it is moving between Jamaica/Cuba. After that expect it to bomb into a cat3 at least as it inners hot water/low shear south of Cuba.

So intill this becomes a hurricane theres no big reason to call for the end of the world?

I don't believe they're caling for the end of the world, I believe that the mets are trying to get residents PREPARED in case of a strong hurricane. Big difference.

[rtd2]

Evacs will more than likely start Saturday because of the new contraflow plan. Up to 50 hrs before the onset of gale force winds.

MAKE that FRIDAY! according to EM's and I posted on this Yesturday NEVER seen Local Mets so BOLD in there FORECASTING! Also COuld some of you NOLA members tune into WWL 870 and Listen for A minute they are reporting Dennis in Now a Cane! Per CBS news ....Not that big of a Deal but I wonder why/Where this is Comming From?

[LaPlaceFF]

Took my mom out to eat at Sicillys in Houma as a day late birthday gift. Guess what the talk of the restaraunt about? You guessed it. DENNIS

There's a Sicily's in Houma? We have one in LaPlace, too!

[Steve]

>>Oh, that reminds me of when Andrew skirted on through here, we were without power for 9 days! Since we have a well here, which runs from electricity, not water for baths or anything. Not fun to say the least and not to mention..... HOT!

I'm sure 9 days wasn't very pleasant Holly. But I'll take what I get. So far I didn't evacuate for Georges or Ivan which were the last two major evacuations of New Orleans. Unless a Cat 5 is bearing down, I'm not going anywhere. I know how to swim, and my dog knows how to swim. We'll find a tree to perch into until help arrives. If not, we'll just enjoy our couple of days of peace and quiet .

Steve

[gboudx]

Just stand on your soapbox Steve. It's high enough that you won't have to worry about drowning.

[cajungal]

We also went over a week without power after Andrew. My mom and dad went through the eyewall with Betsy. And they had no power or water for 3 weeks! We bought a generator after Andrew. And had to spend the night (literally) in Sears to get it with our dog. RIP Lacey. And the ironic thing is as soon as we got home with it, the power came back on. The power has never been off for an extended period of time since Andrew, so 13 years later, it has never been used. Maybe this will be the year we finally get to use it?

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I have y'all beat! No water or electricity for 28 days after Hurricane Fran went through North Carolina! We were well inland (Franklin County) but because so many trees got knocked down, it took weeks for the electric companies to come "save" us! The population out in the country made us less important than getting the cities up and rolling first.