What's your favorite tropical model and why?

[melhow]

I started this because I think it would help those of us who don't have a strong grasp of how the models work (myself totally included) understand why one model is favored over another for tropical forecasting.

For those of you all who understand the models, which one do you think has the best level of tropical accuracy and why?

[joseph01]

I look forward to comments about this as well. Good question.

[Derek Ortt]

MM5 because it has the highest resolution and because I run it

<b>NOT THE FSU VERSION THOUGH</b>

[jax]

I ALWAYS prefer the model that either points directly at
my location... or the one that comes the closest to pointing
directly at my location...

I also like that yellow one from last year that seems to wander
around aimlessly... it was so cute... it just ignored all the others
and tended to play in the southwest Carib most of the time...

[Wthrman13]

The best way, in my opinion, to use the models for track prediction is to apply a blend of all of the models. The GUNA (GFDL UKMET NOGAPS AVN), which is an average of those 4 models, consistently performs better than any of the individual models. To answer your question, I don't know which one I would say is "the best". It really depends. I know that sounds like a cop-out, but that's really the situation. Each model has its strengths and weaknesses, and for some storms, a given model may perform very well, while for others, another may perform well. It's not always easy to discern why this is so for any given situation. It could be differences in the model dynamical formulation (which is a lesser consideration as far as track prediction goes), or differences in the initial conditions (probably the most significant source of error these days, in my opinion). For track prediction, resolution is a secondary consideration, as most global models these days have comparable resolution and tropical cyclones tend to be steered by large-scale flow patterns which are well-resolved by the global models. The best reason for going to higher resolution in tropical cyclone prediction is the possibility of improving intensity forecasts by better resolving the inner-core dynamics. This is a relatively recent and active area of research. [/b]

[jrod]

I like the MRF. A week ago it showed Dennis approaching Florida, so what if its off a little to the right, thats pretty darn good. It is a dependable computer model is there is such a thing.