12z Canadian is moved WELL east?

[ericinmia]

No need to flame... i know where i live, you know where i live... i'm only posting the data.

Since the Canadian Global (cmc) did so well with Ivan this is a little disconcerting to say the least, even with all the other 12z models moving between LA and Pensecola.

New 12z run...
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Old 00z run...
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

So, let the arguments begin...
-Eric

[Deenac813]

There is no way.. and yes that is a technical answer

[mf_dolphin]

You think it's disconcerting for you! Tampa not looking real good on that run for sure. Can I put that run on ignore for now?

[rainydaze]

Just curious....has there ever been a hurricane that actually took that similar path. Basically north up the middle of Florida? That would just be crazy if that happened.

[x-y-no]

Wow ... that's really bucking the trend.

Gotta say I'm inclined to dismiss this - the other globals are all too well in agreement.

Jan

[ericinmia]

Just curious....has there ever been a hurricane that actually took that similar path. Basically north up the middle of Florida? That would just be crazy if that happened.

Yeah, but i am no good with stats. They call hit "up the chute" or something.

[Brent]

Gotta dismiss it... too much of an outlier and I see zero evidence that it's going there.

I think the NHC is too far east right now.

[ALhurricane]

Not only can you put that run on ignore, you can throw it into the dumpster

The new CMC shows an almost immediate NW heading that takes the storm across east Cuba. Given it's persistent WNW heading, it is going to be lucky if it cross north of Jamaica!

As a rule, the CMC is one of the last models to rely on with tropical forecasting and Ivan was the exception.

Thanks for posting the data.

[x-y-no]

OK ... I think I see what it's doing - it builds a blocking high ahead of the remnants of Cindy, and steer them southeast over Florida - knocking down the ridge entirely.

Not terribly likely, IMHO.

Jan

[Air Force Met]

I don't that track will verify. It would have to move NW starting now at 18 MPH....meaning it would not slow down as it approached the break in the ridge.

[flashflood]

Not only can you put that run on ignore, you can throw it into the dumpster :)

The new CMC shows an almost immediate NW heading that takes the storm across east Cuba. Given it's persistent WNW heading, it is going to be lucky if it cross north of Jamaica!

As a rule, the CMC is one of the last models to rely on with tropical forecasting and Ivan was the exception.

Thanks for posting the data.

Can they force the model to initialize the fact the the TS in not going north of north west, at least for the short term?

[jdray]

You think it's disconcerting for you! Tampa not looking real good on that run for sure. Can I put that run on ignore for now?

You and me both.

Not looking good for Keys-Tampa-Orlando-Jax

This would be nasty for the WHOLE state.

[tw861]

That's awfully fast and he would have to be moving NW since 12z which he's not. I think you can toss that one and I wouldn't pay that much attention to the NAM this far out either.

[x-y-no]

I don't that track will verify. It would have to move NW starting now at 18 MPH....meaning it would not slow down as it approached the break in the ridge.

I don't think it'll verify either, but not as much because of the initial course and speed (although that certainly is a bit off) as because I don't buy the idea that the ridge has been completely eroded by Cindy's remnants in the 24-hour timeframe. That's what is allowing it to proceed straight NW across eastern Cuba instead of skirting the south side like all the other models have it doing.

Jan

[Canelaw99]

Not really knowing much with regards to the reliability of the Canadian model, I'm posing this question to y'all: the Canadian has consistently been calling for a FL strike, and I know that because I watched it yesterday in amazement as it had Dennis skirting the west coast of FL before turning inland around Gainesville or so. Is there something to be said for its consistency, or has it just been this far off the entire time?

[Downdraft]

Just curious....has there ever been a hurricane that actually took that similar path. Basically north up the middle of Florida? That would just be crazy if that happened.

1960 Hurricane Donna

[ericinmia]

I don't that track will verify. It would have to move NW starting now at 18 MPH....meaning it would not slow down as it approached the break in the ridge.

I don't think it'll verify either, but not as much because of the initial course and speed (although that certainly is a bit off) as because I don't buy the idea that the ridge has been completely eroded by Cindy's remnants in the 24-hour timeframe. That's what is allowing it to proceed straight NW across eastern Cuba instead of skirting the south side like all the other models have it doing.

Jan

In response the GFDL, and the CMC have Dennis in approximately the same position in the next couple advisories. The main deviation comes after it is around/slightly north of Jamiaca. The GFDL takes it more wnw over the lenght of cuba before turning it north, the CMC continues it nw, and then north over florida.

I'm not saying this will happen, just comparing the two, and showing the deviations.

[MWatkins]

I don't that track will verify. It would have to move NW starting now at 18 MPH....meaning it would not slow down as it approached the break in the ridge.

I'm not saying this is the right solution at all...at all..but the newest NOGAPS run is seeing the same trend...although a couple of degrees further west. The basic idea is that Cindy stalls over GA and the northern extent of the ridge gets eroded between Dennis and ex-Cindy. This makes the atlantic ridge take on a North/South orientation...and NOGAPS has this thing coming in to the panhandle in 96 hours!

MW

[jrod]

This is the time I am glad i never finished met school, im stressing now with all the uncertainties and can not imagane what the Pros must be going through.

With a few of the models shifting east, I know the local news channels are going to start getting the masses on edge this evening. This is often worse than the storm itself, the panic and anxiety of population making the simple task of getting groceries chaos.

I am thinking when this storm slows down all the models are going to go nuts, and I do think it will, after that happens is when *hopefully* we can get a good idea of where he's going.

[MWatkins]

This is the time I am glad i never finished met school, im stressing now with all the uncertainties and can not imagane what the Pros must be going through.

With a few of the models shifting east, I know the local news channels are going to start getting the masses on edge this evening. This is often worse than the storm itself, the panic and anxiety of population making the simple task of getting groceries chaos.

I am thinking when this storm slows down all the models are going to go nuts, and I do think it will, after that happens is when *hopefully* we can get a good idea of where he's going.

It sure would be nice to see models coming closer together...but they are not. The UKMET has joined the GFS in a track further west...with the new GFDL in the middle...and the NOGAPS on the right side of the concensus guidance and faster. The CMC is well to the east of the other guidance...joining the ETA in a camp that joins the two models that seem not to handle the tropics well in general.

Man I hope the synoptic drops clean this up.

MW