Tropical Storm Dennis

[cycloneye]

TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED JUL 06 2005

DENNIS APPEARS TO BE VERY CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH...BUT THE
INNER CORE SEEMS TO STILL BE IN THE ORGANIZING STAGES. 12Z DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS WERE T4.0/65 KT FROM TAFB AND T3.5/55 KT FROM
SAB...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL COMPROMISE AT 60 KT. THE
CONVECTIVE TOPS OF THE BANDING EVIDENT AT 12Z HAVE SINCE WARMED
SLIGHTLY...BUT A NEW CONVECTIVE BURST HAS RECENTLY OCCURRED NEAR
THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE DENNIS THIS AFTERNOON TO BETTER
DETERMINE THE INTENSITY. OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGHOUT THE FIVE-DAY FORECAST
PERIOD... INCLUDING WARM WATERS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
AND GULF OF MEXICO...AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS INDICATED BY
MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND TO THE LATEST GFDL RUN IN
BRINGING DENNIS TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BY 48 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/13. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CURRENTLY CENTERED NORTH OF CUBA IS THE PRIMARY MECHANISM THAT
SHOULD STEER DENNIS GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR ABOUT
THE NEXT THREE DAYS UNTIL IT CROSSES CUBA. THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE RIGHT AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED. THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT
THROUGH DAY THREE...BUT WITH SOME DIVERGENCE THEREAFTER OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO...WITH THE GFS ON THE LEFT AND THE
GFDL...UKMET...AND NOGAPS ON THE RIGHT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS VERY CLOSE TO A
CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...INCLUDING THE FASTER CONU AND
THE SLOWER FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY SUPERENSEMBLE. IT IS IMPORTANT
TO EMPHASIZE THAT FORECAST ERRORS AT THESE LONGER RANGES CAN BE
QUITE LARGE...AND ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK FORECAST.

FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/1500Z 15.4N 71.5W 60 KT
12HR VT 07/0000Z 16.5N 73.5W 65 KT
24HR VT 07/1200Z 18.1N 76.1W 75 KT
36HR VT 08/0000Z 19.8N 78.7W 90 KT
48HR VT 08/1200Z 21.1N 80.9W 100 KT
72HR VT 09/1200Z 23.5N 84.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 10/1200Z 27.0N 85.5W 100 KT
120HR VT 11/1200Z 30.5N 87.0W 100 KT...INLAND

[seahawkjd]

oops, posted discussion at the same time others did.

[loon]

Infact, only the 2pm and 5pm (July 5th) showed him at 20MPH...and he went back to 17 since then. I'm not saying he isn't slowing, I was just pointing out it wasn't a significant , drastic change

[loon]

Bravo, I too have always felt its best to read the discussion atleast 3 times, be sure you soak it all in

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Slowing down could mean a few different things down the road. Normally, a slowing down indicates a change in direction, in this case, taking a more northerly route sooner. But a maintenance of a slower speed would allow the weakness to become a non-issue if Dennis misses it and the ridge has time to build back. But a considerable slow down, or even a stall or loop-d-loops could enable a completely different synoptic set up time to get itself established.
IMO, a slowing down is indicative of Dennis taking on a more northerly component to its motion. It will barely make the connection with the weakening trough. I think it will pass closer to the western coast of Florida than the models are indicating, but far enough away that there is no major impact anywhere on the FL west coast. Then I feel that it will be jostled in a more NW direction by the returning ridge's influence and ultimately end up where the model consensus is now. It will end up in the same place, but take a different path to get there in MHO.
-1st further west/south (not north of jamaica but clipping western Jamaica)
-2nd turnign more northerly to cut across western Cuba
-3rd run parallel to the FL west coast within 150 miles until even with about Orlando before
-4th taking a NW turn and heading into Mobile area as a strong Cat 3/borderline Cat 4.

[dhweather]

The hits just keep on coming........


The models are still tightly coupled to Western Cuba, then diverge.


<img src="http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_04.gif">

[Normandy]

Your kidding.

They STILL have it going north of Jamaica?

[rsdoug1981]

FWIW, the 12z UKMET in the above image has made a BIG shift west to the LA coast.

[jkt21787]

FWIW, the 12z UKMET in the above image has made a BIG shift west to the LA coast.

[Roxy]

AIRFORCEMET:

are these models going to keep shifting west, or is the shifting done? I know you may not know...but dear lord, everytime they run it's west, west, west!!

What's the deal.?

And you think we can at least get some rain out of it if it goes to LA?

[Normandy]

I just know that all the model have it going north of Jamaica, and its troublesome if it doesnt follow them....

[Air Force Met]

AIRFORCEMET:

are these models going to keep shifting west, or is the shifting done? I know you may not know...but dear lord, everytime they run it's west, west, west!!

What's the deal.?

And you think we can at least get some rain out of it if it goes to LA?

We might get some rain if it goes in west of 92 or so. Any further east and we probably won't see much. The models probably will continue to shift west some...but once it nears the GOM...I think they will be tightly clustered into cntl-E LA.

[Roxy]

AIRFORCEMET:

are these models going to keep shifting west, or is the shifting done? I know you may not know...but dear lord, everytime they run it's west, west, west!!

What's the deal.?

And you think we can at least get some rain out of it if it goes to LA?

We might get some rain if it goes in west of 92 or so. Any further east and we probably won't see much. The models probably will continue to shift west some...but once it nears the GOM...I think they will be tightly clustered into cntl-E LA.

So I'm rooting for a hit around 92.5 w. That gives us rain and spares NOLA.

[gkrangers]

But unfortunately Houston will prolly get no rain and NOLA will get crushed.

But hey, you can be the optomistic one!

[Air Force Met]

Hurricane by the 2pm intermediate advisory.

Not sure about that...the inner core looks a little ragged.

[Roxy]

But unfortunately Houston will prolly get no rain and NOLA will get crushed.

But hey, you can be the optomistic one!

BOOO!

[gkrangers]

Hurricane by the 2pm intermediate advisory.

Not sure about that...the inner core looks a little ragged.

I agree...I think they'll hold it at 70MPH (and probably rightfully so) and wait for recon later to see if its more organized.

[x-y-no]

Hurricane by the 2pm intermediate advisory.

Not sure about that...the inner core looks a little ragged.

Yeah ... he doesn't look any better, and maybe a little bit worse, than he did a few hours ago. They'll probably wait for recon to get in there before upgrading at this point.

Jan

[cycloneye]

Just go to the last page for the latest and forget the first pages.Anyway when Dennis is classified as a hurricane a new thread about hurricane Dennis will be posted.

[jhamps10]

is it just me, or does the inner core look like it is starting to regenerate?