Dennis will pass just south of Jamaica.

[Normandy]

Wow, its actually farther south of where I thought it would be (and i was harping passing south of jamaica). It needs to turn a little

[loon]

dang, EPAC is going to steal our storm.....

(kidding folks...stop foaming at the mouth)

[Nimbus]

Dennis has a very large circulation and there are heavy squalls in the northern quadrant.
Perhaps if residents on the strong side of the storm heard the center of the storm was going south of Jamaica they would let their guard down?

[Normandy]

Possibly.

[dwg71]

Is that the center just NW of the NHC forcast point on the visable 16:15 loop? Look at floater 2 and add points and see what you think..

[Normandy]

No, i think it passed directly over the first forecast point and its now west or slightly wnw of it. Moving about 280 ish. I dont get why they are still pulling this north of Jamaica, has recon been in this morning???

[loon]

I don't think it is, but you might be right, but looks like just a cloud that curved that way, I think the center is south of that first point of the forecast points....

[loon]

I find the shortwave IR loops to be easier to track the center when an eye isn't readily visible. I'd say its still south of forecast...even up to the lastest 1615Z image...


I would like to say, I can't wait for (if) the eyewall to appear, the true cork popping of hurricane season 2005 will begin then...

cheers,
loon

[jasons2k]

I agree with NC Weather on being careful with could shots - but I don't see why he says even on the current path it's N of Jaimaica.

The last several extrapolated plots have clearly been SOUTH of the island.

Anyway, will be watching this one close. Looks like a LA/TX threat and the models will catch on in the next day or two.

[gtalum]

To this untrained eye, it seems that every time the NHC updates the track, Dennis hits the first forecast point very close, but is tracks south and west of later points. It looks to me that it's moving in a line to pass south of Jamaica. But again, I am utterly untrained.

[loon]

I have lost the exact center in the last two frames, recon should give us a nice center, but it sure looks welllll south of the next plot track position

[feederband]

I don't know... I kind of think it looks like it might go right into Jamaica....

[dwg71]

Following Dennis is tricky, because there is not a well defined eye. Its easy to be mislead by what you are seeing. Based on the visable radar as of 17:15 i see the center near 15.7N 71.8W, I might be way off recon will verify.

[Normandy]

I think hes not moving westerly anymore, thats for sure. But I still think he passes south (or very near) Jamaica. I will be utterly shocked if he goes north of Jamaica.

[dwg71]

NHC has 2PM advisory center near my point.

[Normandy]

Im just interested in the movement recon finds....I dont think itll be the 300 or so they need it to be to go north of Jamaica.

[loon]

Following Dennis is tricky, because there is not a well defined eye. Its easy to be mislead by what you are seeing. Based on the visable radar as of 17:15 i see the center near 15.7N 71.8W, I might be way off recon will verify.

Looks further west by a hair , to me, I'm pretty much in agreement with your North plot

[dwg71]

NHC had 72 I'll buy that.

[loon]

NHC has 2PM advisory center near my point.

15.7N 72.0W

Like I was thinking, you were very close, dead on N, but a wee bit more west..

8AM = 15.2N 70.8W
2PM = 15.7N 72.0W

.5N 1.2W

Still a very WNW plot...he is getting to the point he might get out of the cone to the south unless they adjust it after the 2pm points..

[deltadog03]

NHC is being stupid on this...If they can't see that dennis is going south of jamica then they should all be fired...