Is Dennis spinning off its center and reforming it to the N?

[dwg71]

It appears to be shooting out to the WSW, but the body of the storm is still moving WNW...

comments, input..

[skysummit]

It doesn't look to be "reforming" to the north, but it does look like new convection is firing around the center. If this continues wrapping, he's going to go through an intensification phase. Direction still looks WNW to me.

[x-y-no]

The LLC certainly seems to be taking a good westerly jog, but the overall envelope is still on the WNW heading, so I expect we'll get a wobble back the other way soon.

[Anonymous]

Yes, this is clearly forming it's inner core. I will talk about this in my tropical update video.

[Air Force Met]

It appears to be shooting out to the WSW, but the body of the storm is still moving WNW...

comments, input..

Highly doubtful. To get a reformation...the system has to be a lot weaker. The pressure is low so the gradient around the center it high...that precludes it from happening. The center is moving west...and it's just easier to see now that it is discernable on sat. The direction of motion b/w the last 2 fixes was 280...so...we'll see what happens in a little bit.

[Comanche]

I agree, I don't think it is moving quite at the 290 on the latest advisory. looked like it was wobbling between 270 and 280 for the last few hours.

[dhweather]

I'm pretty sure that the LLC is moving betwen 270 and 285 tops.

Dennis is getting his act together and chugging basically W

[Rainband]

I agree looks due west.

[HouTXmetro]

I agree looks due west.

I thought I was the only one who noticed. Wonder will it verify.

[dwg71]

It appears that the West jog has ended and has continued with a 290 heading, It also appears that there is some dry air moving in near the center..

[loon]

Well, at some point, either he turns, or the cone moves more west. Either/or is fine with me, but I feel we have beaten this going west/going N/going NW horse to death in the forums, and I'd like him to get far enough over that either A) the northern track is just way off, or B) he starts verifying with NHC's plots. They've basically just barely moved the starting plot while keeping the rest in check thus far...and like I said, its getting close to a point where they would need to put a straight north shot to get him back on their track, or else a pretty good shift in track will need to happen....

[loon]

It appears that the West jog has ended and has continued with a 290 heading, It also appears that there is some dry air moving in near the center..

If you make statements like these people, could you atleast show some sort of data to back up your claims? We have 3700 posts of "heading back west" or "going almost due north". As of the 11am adv. he had moved .2N and .7W from the last adv. point. What data do you have that NHC does not?

I'm not trying to slam, it just seems like we have 10000 posts of "moving blah blah blah now" and thats it, I'd just like to see people actually have to back up their thoughts...

[dwg71]

NHC has had it moving just north of Jamaica the entire run, a 290 - 300 heading is all they are calling for and that is all that it needs to brush northern coast of the island.

Lets wait and see..

[loon]

But those are projected paths only, you had to have seen something to make you state that you thought the westerly jog had ended...are you basing that post solely on where they think it *should* be going?

[Air Force Met]

It appears that the West jog has ended and has continued with a 290 heading, It also appears that there is some dry air moving in near the center..

B/w the 4am and 10am advisories...it moved at 282 according to the fixes.

This is what makes no sense...the advisory says its moving at 290...but the track they have it on moves it at 300 over the next 12 hours...and given the fact its been moving at about 282...the forecast track is certain to be a little to far north. Even if it moves at 290...that puts it on the south side of Jamaica...right near Kingston. In order for it to go where the track is from the 10am...it has to move at 300.

[Air Force Met]

NHC has had it moving just north of Jamaica the entire run, a 290 - 300 heading is all they are calling for and that is all that it needs to brush northern coast of the island.

Lets wait and see..

A 300 heading moves it north of the island...and a 290 moves it south. That's a BIG difference if you are in Jamaica...especially after Ivan last year.

My only puzzlement is why they moved it at 300 in their track but said it was moving at 290. That has a huge implication on the future track...and the model input.

[dwg71]

Im basing it on satelite images... they havent moved their forecast much, and if it were moving due west as many claim it would have to go north to "catch up" but current projected path still calls for nothing more than 295-305 as the heading. Its moving near projections...

[loon]

That was my thoughts on my first post in this thread AFM, its getting to a breaking point, either he starts getting alot more northernly component to him or this track is going to be off. I do however believe they have high faith in him going more northernly soon, as the bottom of the cone is pretty much a match of the extrap......

[gkrangers]

It appears that the West jog has ended and has continued with a 290 heading, It also appears that there is some dry air moving in near the center..

B/w the 4am and 10am advisories...it moved at 282 according to the fixes.

This is what makes no sense...the advisory says its moving at 290...but the track they have it on moves it at 300 over the next 12 hours...and given the fact its been moving at about 282...the forecast track is certain to be a little to far north. Even if it moves at 290...that puts it on the south side of Jamaica...right near Kingston. In order for it to go where the track is from the 10am...it has to move at 300.

I don't understand why the NHC is so stubborn with movement and adjusting track guidance...especially when its still "far away".

Big difference between south of Jamaica and north of Jamaica. Not just in track, but damage and lives lost there.

Also....I had a dream last night where after Dennis had that great convection, but he lost it all and became a wisp.

[jlauderdal]

It appears that the West jog has ended and has continued with a 290 heading, It also appears that there is some dry air moving in near the center..

B/w the 4am and 10am advisories...it moved at 282 according to the fixes.

This is what makes no sense...the advisory says its moving at 290...but the track they have it on moves it at 300 over the next 12 hours...and given the fact its been moving at about 282...the forecast track is certain to be a little to far north. Even if it moves at 290...that puts it on the south side of Jamaica...right near Kingston. In order for it to go where the track is from the 10am...it has to move at 300.

we have seen this before from them.